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I really fancy Madison Du Berlais in this race on Saturday. I will be having a decent e/w bet and the 15/2 currently on offer looks too good to be true. I cant see it being outside of the first 3 and think it has a great chance of winning. Main danger for me is Paul Nicholls ‘Neptune Collognes’ cant see the winner coming from anywhere else.
Any opinions on this race would be most welcome before I head off down to the bookmakers tomorrow morning,Apologies for not looking in advance Zoso, but is this the race that Opera Mundi is in, and are the odds you are quoting the odds with Opera Mundi priced up also.
The reason I ask is because I believe Opera Mundi has another engagement on Saturday (I think the Skybet Chase is the other one). I haven’t seen any of the racing for Saturday yet, other than to know what I’ve just said – so does anyone know which race OM will run in? I can’t get onto the RP site for some reason.
Mike
Apologies for not looking in advance Zoso, but is this the race that Opera Mundi is in, and are the odds you are quoting the odds with Opera Mundi priced up also.
The reason I ask is because I believe Opera Mundi has another engagement on Saturday (I think the Skybet Chase is the other one). I haven’t seen any of the racing for Saturday yet, other than to know what I’ve just said – so does anyone know which race OM will run in? I can’t get onto the RP site for some reason.
Mike
The odds are from Oddschecker and it doesn’t show Opera Mundi as being a runner. RP card doesn’t show Opera as running either so I assume he will be running in the Skybet Chase.
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Though the trip may be a little beyond his best, Our Vic must enter calculations here.
Ground should be just about perfect by tomorrow afternoon, with only 8 runners the pace shouldn’t be too searching, and he has had a decent break since running the race of his life in the King George.
Given the usual quiet ride by Timmy Murphy, he could still prove too good for these.Opera Mundi runs at Doncaster (3:00).
I think it’s a very open race, but TBH I see it as a poor one for what is essentially the closest to a GC trial there is. I fancy State of Play, he’s the one with the proven ability and stamina. If he puts in a clear round I’ll be surprised to not see him go close.
Cheers Zoso and Friggo,
I probably got it completely wrong, but I’m sure when I could get onto the RP site that Opera Mundi was double engaged, though considering that was this morning, it may well have been the 5-day or even 48 hour decs I was looking at.
Mike
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ps
Opera Mundi was declared for both races, and included in both RP cards earlier, though they did make it clear that Donny was his 1st preference.Has the Our Vic best fresh theory been over egged? I see he’s around 3/1. I was expecting something around 7/4.
ps
Opera Mundi was declared for both races, and included in both RP cards earlier, though they did make it clear that Donny was his 1st preference.Cheers Reet (and Marb)
I Don’t really have a view on the race but I couldn’t back your judgement because of "Main danger for me is Paul Nicholls ‘Neptune Collognes’ cant see the winner coming from anywhere else". Our Vic, 2nd in the king george is favouroute for a reason, State Of Play is a Hennessy winner and Simon a Racing Post chase winner, if you can’t see the winner coming from anywhere else you need to eat more carrots mate!
Not having a pop mate and good luck with your bet, I shall be staying out because i think there’s better opportunities elsewhere, but just to say (and I don’t mean to put you off), I think there are more dangers than just Nicholls horse to Pipe’s second string.
To be fair Marb, my opinion is based on a bit more than I fancy the Pipe horse and the main danger is Paul Nicholls horse.
I think Our Vic is a better horse when fresh and there is a chance he can bounce and run below form tomorrow. I would not assume that Madison Du Berlais is the Pipe second string. Timmy Murphy rides Our Vic as it is a David Johnson horse and Scudamore rides Madison as he is the stable jockey.
The current form of the Evan Williams stable puts me off State of Play, just 1 winner from 20 runners this month, 3 runners in the last 2 weeks = all unplaced with 2 of them PU. His run last time when 5th of 6 would be a worry and its possible that this horse is better fresh also. All in all I cant get involved with this one and I think he has been a disappointment since he ran in the Gold Cup last year.
I think Simon is a better horse on soft ground and may want more of a stamina test, I also dont think he is quite up to winning at this level. On OR Madison Du Berlais is rated 2 l/b higher than him so as far as Im concerned Madison should be the shorter price.
I cant see Faasel, Billyvodan or Knowhere being involved in the finish which leaves me with Pipes and Nicholls.
Nicholls will be a danger but may just need the first run for 276 days (though no surprise if he doesn’t and he has won fresh before) and the penalty could be just enough to stop him. He has ran 4 times at Cheltenham and has never been placed (has shown good form here though) and can make mistakes.
I think Madison Du Berlais is one of the runners who is still improving. He has ran 3 times in the month of January (won twice and 3rd of
he has also won twice in Feburay so this is his time of year. Although he hasnt won at Cheltenham he always runs a good race here and is fully effective on the track and has plenty of experience here. He is proven on the ground and over the trip and I feel he has a great chance of winning.Thats my opinion in a nutshell and I think I have a great chance of landing the bet.
Good summary Zoso.
I agree totally about State of Play and the Williams yard. When State of Play was at his best, the Williams yard could do no wrong.
I remember thinking in the Lexus (without seeing the race again) that State Of Play was running a fantastic race – then all of a sudden he blew up to the extent of being disappointing.
Mike
Has the Our Vic best fresh theory been over egged? I see he’s around 3/1. I was expecting something around 7/4.
Thank you DJ – I just said the same over at another gaff.
Forget 7/4 – on form Our Vic should be about a 4/5 chance in against this lot of plodders, and at over 3/1 on BetFair he rates one of the bets of the season….albeit one which it’s hard to have a shred of confidence in.
I think the winner will be one of Our Vic, State of Play and Neptune, with preference in that order. The trip must be a doubt with Our Vic or he’d be a bet. State Of Play is the strongest stayer and the Lexus didn’t play to his strengths. Neptune isn’t out of it but his Cheltenham record is uninspiring.
I can’t see the rest being good enough.Our Vic rarely puts 2 good races together. After a good run he normally runs below form next time. He may have stayed this sort of trip on a track like Kempton, Aintree and Wetherby but on a testing track I can see him stopping and maybe even being unplaced or pulled up.
When he ran in this race last year he completely ran out of gas and a similar scenario awaits tomorrow. You could argue that the heavy ground made it more testing but I would still be worried. However that was his first run of the season and I am definitely on the side that says he is better when fresh. Also the horse who was 3rd is a national type and out and out stayer as was the 4th. Fundamentalist was badly out of form and was beaten around 100 lengths in 5th and no other horse finished the race.Im of the opinion that Our Vic is more 10/1 than 4/5 but its all about opinions and it should be a good race.
Zoso, I’ll be happy top match any 10/1 you put up on the pink side at BetFair. Just show me the way.
Our Vic gave Neptune Collonges 12lb and a 7L beating over 3m on soft ground in last seasons Charlie Hall. Tomorrow’s opposition will not be able to get him off the bridle in the same manner as Exotic dancer did in the race last year, and I figure he will hack-up..
Zoso, I’ll be happy top match any 10/1 you put up on the pink side at BetFair. Just show me the way.
Our Vic gave Neptune Collonges 12lb and a 7L beating over 3m on soft ground in last seasons Charlie Hall. Tomorrow’s opposition will not be able to get him off the bridle in the same manner as Exotic dancer did in the race last year, and I figure he will hack-up..
To be fair though GH, that was NC’s first ever chase (in Britian), he was still a novice and only a 5 year old, racing against the much older and experienced Our Vic.
Surely NV has improved since then, though that’s not to say that OV isn’t the same horse. If it weren’t for the form of the Pipe yard in recent weeks, I would be firmly in the NC camp, but now I think it’s a very tough call.
Mike
Zoso, I’ll be happy top match any 10/1 you put up on the pink side at BetFair. Just show me the way.
Our Vic gave Neptune Collonges 12lb and a 7L beating over 3m on soft ground in last seasons Charlie Hall. Tomorrow’s opposition will not be able to get him off the bridle in the same manner as Exotic dancer did in the race last year, and I figure he will hack-up..
Neptune Collognes was a 5yo in that race running against an 8yo and that was a cracking performance for a 5yo. He has come of age now so I wouldnt read too much into that race. Also 3m 1 f at Wetherby is one thing but the hill will find him out I think at Cheltenham once again over this trip. When he beat Neptune he was fresh and no matter what anyone says Our Vic is best when fresh. Everything was in his favour that day, Neptune will turn that form upside down this time in my view.
Im afraid I wont be offering you any 10/1 when I can lay at much shorter but I think Our Vic will be a sitting duck up that hill for Madison Du Berlais. I really dont think any of you guys should write the improving 7yo off.
he has also won twice in Feburay so this is his time of year. Although he hasnt won at Cheltenham he always runs a good race here and is fully effective on the track and has plenty of experience here. He is proven on the ground and over the trip and I feel he has a great chance of winning.
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