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Added Trelawne NRNB for the Ultima. On occasion he hasn’t looked the full ticket, but his form is reasonable, and hopefully, the big field, and particularly the step up in trip might see an improvement. The negative would be Bass (very good today on Does He Know) choosing Chianti Classico. Let’s hope he doesn’t.
I can’t remember a more frustrating ante-post year with the novices. Pretty sure I have taken the logical route only for the contrary buggers, sorry trainers, to take the illogical one. I thought I had read the room, but those trainers appear to be in a different one. It wouldn’t be quite so bad if it was just one. The decisions I took months ago still look like the right one’s now.
I won’t repeat all the arguments about Ballyburn because that looks all but done and dusted. The one thing I would say is that I haven’t heard a single person describe Ballyburn as a two-miler which seems to only confirm he is just on a mission to ‘get away with it’. It wouldn’t be so bad if he had no other options. Nobody is criticising it as I suspect many are only interested in their 14/1 pre DRF ticket. Gidleigh Park isn’t as good as Ballyburn, but it’s a similar case. Pedigree, and performance shout Albert Bartlett, but we still have the jock (spoon fed by presenters) still wittering on about how much speed he has. Really? Where was that speed when he was so obviously outpaced by Lucky Place last time? That performance is not good enough to win a Ballymore, with or without Ballyburn. He would go off close to favourite for an Albert Bartlett. Just on the subject of Burke, watched him give a couple of awful rides recently. Very hit and miss jock, and right now he is far more on the miss side.
On the chasing front there was no go good reason whatsoever to shunt Fact To File into the Brown Advisory. He had been a 5/4 favourite for a weak Turners. The decision made no sense at all, but that’s Mullins all over. Finally, we have Broadway Boy. Little Twister is still banging on about the Brown Advisory? After he was hammered by Flooring Porter (not even entered for the Brown Advisory) that should have been a big enough clue that he wasn’t good enough, and the longer race was the only realistic option.
A couple of those reverses would be bad enough, but four?
Then you have the sheer bad luck of Let It Rain, the injuries to Klassical Dream, and Halka Du Tabert, plus Mullins big change of mind with Gaelic Warrior.
Not a very good advert for ante-post. If anyone can top that lot, I would be very surprised. Next week I need a very large hat, and several rabbits to come out of it, and that’s just to break even.
I wouldn’t say he is trying to ‘get away with it’. He fits the mould of the type horse Mullins has had success with in the Supreme in the past. Of Mullins’ last five winners of the race only Douvan could really be described as a two miler, and Ballyburn has shown superior form over the minimum than Appreciate It, Klassical Dream or Champagne Fever had before their victories.
On the Fact To File one, I wonder how much it has to do with the return of Iroko into the Turners picture for JP. Would agree the Turners looks made for Fact To File. With Gaelic Warrior, very hard to keep a horse that jumps a fence that well over hurdles for an extra season. I’d say as soon as they schooled him the Stayers Hurdle was out of their minds.
“On the Fact To File one, I wonder how much it has to do with the return of Iroko into the Turners picture for JP.”
100% I would say. Otherwise the decision makes no sense at all.
Yes, it may well have had something to do with Iroko, but also perhaps the trainer wanting to shuffle horses like Facile Vega into the Turners. Getting rid of the clear favourite would make that much easier. Even with Iroko the decision makes little sense. You have a short priced favourite compared to a horse around 11/2 who has had one run over fences, and an interrupted preparation. It’s hardly a like for like swap.
Irrespective of having a history of getting away with it in previous years if a horse isn’t a natural two-miler, and you choose that over a natural trip (and likely a penalty kick) then there is no other way of describing it. Ballyburn has a much bigger reputation, and has looked a much smarter staying prospect than all three of those mentioned. Mullins has likened the horse to Faugheen which sounds crazy to me. Is he intending going for the Champion Hurdle next year?
If you were trying to get the horse beat this is the way you would go about it. Why make things harder unless it is more about you than the horse? Patrick Mullins, Danny Mullins and David Casey all prefer the Ballymore option. Walsh, and no doubt every pundit who took the 14/1 before the DRF prefers the Supreme. As I have said before I haven’t heard any bookmaker, or anyone associated with a bookmaker, suggesting the horse should run in the Ballymore. They would love to see him in the Supreme as it gives them a chance as opposed to no chance. They are not stupid.
Gaelic Warrior is a young horse, and he could easily have waited a year. His season may well have gone pear-shaped. You cannot be described as a good jumper if you can’t jump straight. He could well have gone to a poor Stayers Hurdle as favourite. Instead nobody knows what’s happening with him.
Losers
Cadell, Shanbally Kid, Iroko, Coko Beach, Kilcruit, Stattler, Ballyburn, Trustyourinstinct, JanidilI’ve only placed one early bet, and i doubt i’ll bother with any more, pre-Cheltenham week.
In the Pertemps on Thursday
Starzov E/W at 50s 1st 5 NRNB
Stilvi, it’s not a matter of having a horse that is not a natural two miler and getting away with it. The horse has the pace for 2m and the stamina for further, and my point was that that is a blend which has served Mullins well in the past. So that likely comes into his thinking when aiming something at the Supreme.
Another one bites the dust. Cromwell isn’t running Perceval Legallois. Yet it appears he is going to run Encanto Bruno whatever the going – again. Yes, Perceval Legallois had a big weight, but it was bound to be a condensed handicap. He had been well supported, and one of the favourites, but hey let’s ignore all the positives. All seems to boil down to the real money being down on Inothewayurthinkin.
Added LATIN VERSE for the Boodles. Not one of the fancy one’s, but jumped slickly, and won very nicely at Ludlow. Seemed to relish the ground that day so probably wouldn’t want the ground to dry too much. Previously, chased home a potentially decent prospect. A bigger yard, and I suspect he might be half the price.
Thought about my old friend Seddon for the Coral, but will wait for the declarations. Very impressive last year when doing me a nice favour in the Plate. I don’t think he has been the same horse this season, and it would be a fair effort from the trainer if he could get him back in similar shape to last year.
Ballyburn shortening all the time for the Bingham, Stilvi.
Now it is 11/8 while almost 3/1 for the Supreme.Value Is EverythingBroadway Boy smashed up for the Brown Advisory. No surprise at all, and hardly a surprise with that sort of thinking that the stable has struggled for Festival winners in recent years. This was a choice between a chance, and no chance. They have chosen no chance. Probably a similar thinking process with Stay Away Fay where trainer unable to tell professional jock he wasn’t riding.
More conspiracy theories / ulterior motives, Stilvi.
It couldn’t be that Nicholls thinks Stay Away Fay (the second favourite) has a good chance in the Brown Advisory… It has to be “trainer unable to tell professional jock he wasn’t riding”.
For sure Stay Away Fay might have started favourite had they gone for the National Hunt Chase, but that is only a Grade 2 and nowhere near as much prestige as the Grade 1 Brown Advisory… And Stay Away Fay is only 3/1 and put up some of the best novice form this side of the Irish Sea.
Even Broadway Boy is a 14/1 shot, so hardly has “no chance”… And taking his below par effort last time out of it… He’s a very progressive novice with a rating right up with the best British novices… And often not the best of jumpers, so not really an amateur’s ride. Possibly needs to lead too and more likely to get that in the BA than NHC. So I can see the logic of running in the BA. If the trainer believes Broadway Boy has improved a bit then why not go for the better race?
I applaud both trainers for having a go at the bigger race.
Value Is EverythingI have tried to find an explanation for passing up a couple of winning chances to which you have played your usual straight bat.
I doubt I am too far away.
Not too many people remember glorious failure over getting winners. Let’s see what happens next week.
Should they win, I will also be quite happy to applaud them for having a go.
Anti Post: My lot, I dont do Handicaps antipost, prefer to bet the night before the race.
Still Live
Real Wacker 20/1 and Corach Rambler 20/1 Gold cup..
Fact To File 14/1 and 20/1 Brown Advisory
Note: the 20/1 was a free bet on the Monday after his defeat to American Mile, the 14/1 was limited to a certain amount prior to his first run over fences.
Luccia 33/1 E/W Champion Hurdle, expected a small field and hoping for 3rd.
Mister Meggit 33/1 E/W Bumper Not Entered
Brechin Castle 33/1 E/W Bumper Not Entered
Imagine 66/1 E/W Turners
Lecky Watson E/W 33/1 Albert Bartlet Spud PickersE/W PAT
Broadway Boy 20/1 Browns
Drashel Drasher 33/1 Stayers
Bravemans Game 20/1 Gold CupIve a few stilly free bet multiples ..which have no chance.
Done for:
Burdett Road, Triumph, and Champion Hurdle (wishful).
Tea Clipper Hunters Chase
Maries Rock Stayers Hurdle
Let It Rain Bumper
Capodano and I am Maximus Gold CupA small chance of winning something.
EDITED March 7th.. Last two bumper runners ..gone
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