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How do you come to the conclusion Go Native was under par? Complete tosh. He was on the bridle coming to the last, didn’t jump it that well and then got left for dead.
Hurricane Fly has all the attributes you would expect of a champion hurdler; speed, stamina, class, decent hurdler and a good attitude. Being a Montjeu would be a concern though as they do seem to go off the boil as they get older. He is a genuine contender, whether he will fulfil his potential is another.
Complete Tosh? So you think him finishing 3/4 of a length in front of Zarinava, who would have been beaten all of 20 lengths by Cousin Vinny had he not fallen, is on a par with his Cheltenham victory?
On that basis Go Native has shown an improevement 25 lengths between Leapordstown and Cheltenham and there is no smoke without fire mate.
Going to the last Go Native’s jockey was going so well he actually took a pull then something went dreadfully wrong. Hurricane Fly certainly quickened but even allowing for the fact GN’s rider didn’t force the issue he found absolutely nothing. That made Hurricane Fly look very good but what you see is not always what you get and the end of the day.
They had thought beforehand something was a miss with the horse and he was feeling something but whether that was the case here or not I don’t know.
Turning for home both HF and GN are hack cantering. HF simply jumps the last and sprints away.
I suggest with Go Native stopping like shot and Donna’s Palm running like a mule he has beaten absolutely nothing.
I think the Go Native we saw at Cheltenham was a completely different kettle of fish to the one we saw that day and by some way at that.
If you think that form in Ireland is anywhere near as good as Go Native showed at Cheltenham you are stark raving bonkers and I suggest you redefine the meaning of "Complete Tosh"
Class is relative.
This years Champion Hurdle field, in class/ratings terms, is strictly mid-160’s level. There is no standout (regardless of what Fists/Aristo thinsk about Binocular), and the leap from top-class novice to Champion Hurdler, isn’t as pronounced as it might be.
A typical Supreme winner would have something in the order of a stone of improvement to make, to make an impact in open company the following season. If said Supreme winner improved 20lbs, then he would almost certainly be a contender for Championship events.
Go Native is a "typical Supreme winner" – the form of the race has a pretty solid feel, the race was entirely representative, but there was no ‘all-star’ performance. For my money, Hurricane Fly is patently a better horse than Go Native (anyone suggesting GN was undercooked for Leopardstown is grasping at fresh-air).
I would suggest Hurricane Fly needs to make no more than 10lbs improvement to confirm himself a
serious
Champion Hurdle contender. He has plenty of scope for further improvement after only five outings over hurdles, he has a killer turn of foot, he stays extremely well, and is proven on every possible type of ground you could encounter. He also has form on flat and undulating tracks.
Granted, he is technically unproven in the top-bracket, but half the battle is in identifying horses who are unexposed, is it not?
I personally think the only thing that can stop this horse winning a Champion Hurdle, is if he fails to recover fully from this setback, and whilst I wouldn’t therefore compel anyone else to take the current price, I confess it is more than good enough for me.
The horse had a minor setback Grassy it’s not like his leg fell of ffs.
With all respect mate your dreaming if you think anything Hurricane Fly has done to date justiies his Champion Hurdle price.
Many many horses have gone to Cheltenham and won the Supreme or Triumph Hurdle and then failed miserably to make any imperession in the Champion Hurdle whatsover.
It amazes me people think it’s just a small leap for horsekind. Perhaps you should ask Donald McCain what he thinks now after he thought Whiteoak only had to run to get placed. The horse couldn’t even go the pace and she trailed in 25 lengths behind the winner
Hurricane Fly’s don’t often win Champion Hurdles. The initial gallop alone takes them to a new dimension, injections of pace like they never experienced in their lives knocks them for 6 and they end up in the also rans time after time.
Sure he’s a nice horse and looks the part but until he can do what Binocular did to Celestial Halo and prove he can repeat his superiority in top class I wouldn’t be counting my pennies.
I will say he is not a horse I would like to take on in a sprint to the line but trainers get wise to these things very quickly and no one hangs about in Champion Hurdles and that adavatage is quickly supressed.
Unless of course your beloved horse is the new Istabraq which he’ll have to be to win next years renewal.
Class is relative.
This years Champion Hurdle field, in class/ratings terms, is strictly mid-160’s level. There is no standout (regardless of what Fists/Aristo thinsk about Binocular), and the leap from top-class novice to Champion Hurdler, isn’t as pronounced as it might be.
A typical Supreme winner would have something in the order of a stone of improvement to make, to make an impact in open company the following season. If said Supreme winner improved 20lbs, then he would almost certainly be a contender for Championship events.
Go Native is a "typical Supreme winner" – the form of the race has a pretty solid feel, the race was entirely representative, but there was no ‘all-star’ performance. For my money, Hurricane Fly is patently a better horse than Go Native (anyone suggesting GN was undercooked for Leopardstown is grasping at fresh-air).
I would suggest Hurricane Fly needs to make no more than 10lbs improvement to confirm himself a
serious
Champion Hurdle contender. He has plenty of scope for further improvement after only five outings over hurdles, he has a killer turn of foot, he stays extremely well, and is proven on every possible type of ground you could encounter. He also has form on flat and undulating tracks.
Granted, he is technically unproven in the top-bracket, but half the battle is in identifying horses who are unexposed, is it not?
I personally think the only thing that can stop this horse winning a Champion Hurdle, is if he fails to recover fully from this setback, and whilst I wouldn’t therefore compel anyone else to take the current price, I confess it is more than good enough for me.
The horse had a minor setback Grassy it’s not like his leg fell of ffs.
With all respect mate your dreaming if you think anything Hurricane Fly has done to date justiies his Champion Hurdle price.
Many many horses have gone to Cheltenham and won the Supreme or Triumph Hurdle and then failed miserably to make any imperession in the Champion Hurdle whatsover.
It amazes me people think it’s just a small leap for horsekind. Perhaps you should ask Donald McCain what he thinks now after he thought Whiteoak only had to run to get placed. The horse couldn’t even go the pace and she trailed in 25 lengths behind the winner
Hurricane Fly’s don’t often win Champion Hurdles. The initial gallop alone takes them to a new dimension, injections of pace like they never experienced in their lives knocks them for 6 and they end up in the also rans time after time.
Sure he’s a nice horse and looks the part but until he can do what Binocular did to Celestial Halo and prove he can repeat his superiority in top class I wouldn’t be counting my pennies.
I will say he is not a horse I would like to take on in a sprint to the line but trainers get wise to these things very quickly and no one hangs about in Champion Hurdles and that adavatage is quickly supressed.
Unless of course your beloved horse is the new Istabraq which he’ll have to be to win next years renewal.
I think you’ve summed that up pretty damn perfectly Fist.
People get carried away a bit too easily. We’ve been in similar positions many, many times before.
Cheltenham festival championship races are a completely different ball game to any other races.
The horse had a minor setback Grassy it’s not like his leg fell of ffs.
With all respect mate your dreaming if you think anything Hurricane Fly has done to date justiies his Champion Hurdle price.
Many many horses have gone to Cheltenham and won the Supreme or Triumph Hurdle and then failed miserably to make any imperession in the Champion Hurdle whatsover.
It amazes me people think it’s just a small leap for horsekind. Perhaps you should ask Donald McCain what he thinks now after he thought Whiteoak only had to run to get placed. The horse couldn’t even go the pace and she trailed in 25 lengths behind the winner
Hurricane Fly’s don’t often win Champion Hurdles. The initial gallop alone takes them to a new dimension, injections of pace like they never experienced in their lives knocks them for 6 and they end up in the also rans time after time.
Sure he’s a nice horse and looks the part but until he can do what Binocular did to Celestial Halo and prove he can repeat his superiority in top class I wouldn’t be counting my pennies.
I will say he is not a horse I would like to take on in a sprint to the line but trainers get wise to these things very quickly and no one hangs about in Champion Hurdles and that adavatage is quickly supressed.
Unless of course your beloved horse is the new Istabraq which he’ll have to be to win next years renewal.
Aristo, this is nonsense.
You were shouting all about Binocular for the 2009 Champion Hurdle
long
before he beat Celestial Halo at Aintree, a fact which tends to invalidate your "not experienced enough" argument when it comes to Hurricane Fly. Similarly, invoking a 2m4f animal like Whiteoak in a discussion about pace over 2m, is equally irrelevant.
Like I said before – I’m not asking anyone else to take a price about the Hurricane Fly.
All I’m saying is that the current top echelon of 2m hurdlers contains no superstars (regardless of what you personally think about Binocular – he isn’t), and far from it needing "the new Istabraq" to win next year’s Champion Hurdle, it will only take a horse capable of a rating of around 165 to put himself right in the mix. My interpretation is that Hurricane Fly can make that kind of progress in the course of the next 11 months…….and I expect him to do it fairly readily, to be perfectly honest with you.
I look forward to hearing your excuse when HF canters all over Go Native at Punchestown.
It’s fairly easy to get swayed by the term ‘novice’. The truth is, Hurricane Fly and Binocular are the same age and the former has just as much, if not more racing experience as the latter. As things stand, Binocular is approximately 10lbs better and I see no particular reason why HF should close that gap substantially over the next 12 months.
If Binocular had never run at Cheltenham (as is obviously the case with HF), and we only had his other form against the ‘best of the rest’ to base our opinions on, then it’d be virtually impossible to look beyond him (assuming good health) for next year’s Champion. Unfortunately it’s not as straight forward as that, and that’s where my reservations about HF lie.
I’m not saying he can’t or won’t win, but I’m certainly going to reserve judgement until I’ve seen him against better horses, in a strongly run race
Hope you don’t mind me having a bash at those questions too Bulwark.
Q – Does he have the staying power and mental resolution of Celestial Halo?
A – Possibly not mental resolution (though early season win against Cousin Vinny suggests otherwise), he’s proven he stays 2m 4f so no doubts on that front and can run a top race off a good strong gallop
Q – Does he have the finishing Speed of Punjabi or Binocular?
A – Most definitely – one of the few horses with a genuine turn of foot – none of those above have shown that
Q – If the pace is average does he have what it takes to get involved?
A – Yes, see various wins for that.
Q Do I think he will shorten over next season, when he meets the irish champ hurdle challengers.
A Yes. IMO he could have potnentially won most of irelands big races this season with the performances he has been throwing in. (same as your answer Bulwark)
Q. Do I think one could go closer to him if he runs again over 2miles this season?
A Closer than what? Cousin Vinny and Donna’s Palm earlier in the season? Yes, sadly there’s only one horse who IMO will get near him this year and they won’t take each other on.
Q – Does his price of 7-1 appeal?
A – Yes, I can see him starting at Binocular type prices next year, a genuine top class horse with rock solid form all over the place.
I am a great believer in basing what i see with my own eyes as a crucial part of my judgement of a horse! Go Native is a good horse, he proved that
at Cheltenham, anyone who rates the Hurricane would have backed Go Native, just on the Leopardstown run alone! Go Native had every chance to
put it down to the Hurricane as they came to the last flight,but it was a bit more than a gust of wind that blew him away!! You can put that down to years of experience,i know a class horse when i see one! What i dont know though is could he battle if he had too up that formidable hill at
Cheltenham! I would like to think he has an extra gear that would be engaged so he wouldn"t have too battle! I have said it for a long time
Celestial Halo is a young light Heavyweight, next year he will be a Heavyweight and he can pack a punch! Throw in Binocular who should still
have further improvement in him and it will be some race! Only 347 days to go!!Can I join in?
Hope you don’t mind me having a bash at those questions too Bulwark.
Q – Does he have the staying power and mental resolution of Celestial Halo?
A – Possibly not mental resolution (though early season win against Cousin Vinny suggests otherwise), he’s proven he stays 2m 4f so no doubts on that front and can run a top race off a good strong gallop
Fist: I would have to say no. Celestial Halo’s main asset is he can maintain a strong gallop while under pressure and doesn’t flinch. Hurricane Fly is an entirely differnt type of horse who’s resolution mental or otherwise is not part of his his armoury. If it came to a dog fight and sheer guts Celestial Halo would surely come out on topQ – Does he have the finishing Speed of Punjabi or Binocular?
A – Most definitely – one of the few horses with a genuine turn of foot – none of those above have shown that.
Fist: That’s the 1 million dollar question. Hurrcane Fly has shown an excellent turn of foot especially in his last race. However the pace of his races to date whould be somewhat slower than he will experience next season. I wouldn’t associate Punjabi with finishing speed as he tends to increase the tempo from about 3 out and he is a hard horse to catch let alone pass. He did exactly that against Sublimity and simply outstayed him after Sublimity used his speed just to get to him.
Not many horses travel better than Sublimity during a race but Bincoular certainly does. He doesn’t have the zing of Hurricane Fly who’s acceleration is more instant but he travels better than any hurdler in training. He showed at Ascot he can cruise past horses with ease and he has a fair turn of foot also. I think the problem Hurricane Fly would have with Binocular is that he would use what speed he has just to get into a race with him and then AP would press the button and Binocular would just have too much class for him.
The only real answer to the question is wait and see if he can step up to the big time and still produce that elecrtyfing turn of foot. It’s hard to imagaine him not doing so but slow horses can make even a moderate animal look fast and have you believeing they are something they are not.
I see a weakness in HF and I truly believe he is not what people think he is.
Q – If the pace is average does he have what it takes to get involved?
A – Yes, see various wins for that.
Fist: Which genius thought that question up?
Q Do I think he will shorten over next season, when he meets the irish champ hurdle challengers.
A Yes. IMO he could have potnentially won most of irelands big races this season with the performances he has been throwing in. (same as your answer Bulwark)
Fist: Would he have beaten Sublimity and Brave Inca? I don’t know if he would have beaten the latter in those conditions. However I would like to think he is the best Ireland has to offer and would blow them away this coming season. If he can’t beat Irelands old brigagde he would be as well staying in his box come March.
Q. Do I think one could go closer to him if he runs again over 2miles this season?
A Closer than what? Cousin Vinny and Donna’s Palm earlier in the season? Yes, sadly there’s only one horse who IMO will get near him this year and they won’t take each other on.
Fist: I take it you mean his stable companion? who for me is the best prospect I’ve seen this season. If he runs at l/town and Go Native takes him on obviously it will be a close rrun race of both are spot on. Go Native proved at Cheltenham he is a much better horse than he showed the time before.
Q – Does his price of 7-1 appeal?
A – Yes, I can see him starting at Binocular type prices next year, a genuine top class horse with rock solid form all over the place.
Fist. I don’t think it’s generous by any means. It’s based on him beating a few novices and he will have to show he can step up.
However, I am thinking about having a very serious bet on the horse but will make my mind up before L/Stown. I don’t think he will win the Champion Hurdle but if he can beat Go Native by a few lengths then it’s open season to make money.
I could see him running all his races against Irish oppostion and beating them all quite easily and the bookies shortening him up no end. I can’t see Willie M sending him across the water before Cheltenham.
I never lay horses but with him I might just make an acception. The big question has to be can he beat Go Native again because if he can’t then we will all have done our money.
I am a great believer in basing what i see with my own eyes as a crucial part of my judgement of a horse! Go Native is a good horse, he proved that
at Cheltenham, anyone who rates the Hurricane would have backed Go Native, just on the Leopardstown run alone! Go Native had every chance to
put it down to the Hurricane as they came to the last flight,but it was a bit more than a gust of wind that blew him away!! You can put that down to years of experience,i know a class horse when i see one! What i dont know though is could he battle if he had too up that formidable hill at
Cheltenham! I would like to think he has an extra gear that would be engaged so he wouldn"t have too battle! I have said it for a long time
Celestial Halo is a young light Heavyweight, next year he will be a Heavyweight and he can pack a punch! Throw in Binocular who should still
have further improvement in him and it will be some race! Only 347 days to go!!Tell you what GW Binocular may have further improvement in him but there is a horse who has been ignored by almost everyone who could possibly improve more than any of them.
Someone had a right go at me when I said last year that this horse wasn’t fit and in the same thread said I was an idiot when I said Cousin Vinny was grossly overrated and had absolutelly no chance of winning the Supreme. Turns out he’s the idiot as the horse I am refeering to left all his previous form behind and ran a great race in the Champion Hurdle and CV flopped miserably……….
to you whoever you were 
Don’t ya hate it when they say things then hide as if to say "Wasn’t Me!"
The horse in question improved steadily all season and was like a winner waiting to happen. There’s not a lot of him and it would have been foolhardy to have pushed him any harder than his trainer was doing.
He still looks a bit weak to me and I’m sure has got masses of improvement in him. I’m really keen on his chances next year and I would doubt very much they will shake him off as easily with another year under his belt.
He has proved he can go the CH pace and all he needs now is to improve a few pounds and he’ll be right up there with the best of them.
Amazingly he is 79 on Betfair and only Stan James 33/1 and Cashmans 20/1 quote him for next year race. His trainer has confirmed he will be going for the race again so why he is not being quoted I have no idea.
The horse in question is Muirhead and Noel Meade is as canny as they come. He was beaten only 6 lenths this year and it is not beyond the realms of possibility he can make up that leeway and go on to win next years renewal. NM has been very easy on him this season and won’t rush him next year but come Champion Hurdle day I think you will find he’ll be spot on and ready to show everyone he is more than up to the task.
I am still in Binoculars camp but I am sure this horse will prove to be a huge danger next year and is a knocking EW bet at current odds.
Incidentally Noel Mead has the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown in mind for him and should he win it I doubt if he will be anything like 33/1 afterwards.
Muirhead is one-paced at 2m, and I reckon his optimum conditions are likely to prove around 2m4f on quick ground. He would have been an interesting contender in the Aintree Hurdle, but I figure he’ll always get done for toe at the minimum trip.
GEEZ, FIST. for you to say there"s a horse that could improve more than
YOUR Binocular! You got me reading through your post Chapter and Verse
waiting for the climax! It was like reading a Johhny Francome novel, "just
as the young stable lass was about to get a good sorting, the jockey announces he has second lot to attend to first"! thats when "Muirhead" enters the scene! MUIRHEAD!!!!! Sometimes you talk and i think yep he knows his stuff! Then you go and say something like that!! MUIRHEAD!!!!!
Were talking CHAMPION F*****G HURDLE!!Did anyone get 10/1 about HF for the Champion Hurdle
Yeah but wasn’t there for very long
GEEZ, FIST. for you to say there"s a horse that could improve more than
YOUR Binocular! You got me reading through your post Chapter and Verse
waiting for the climax! It was like reading a Johhny Francome novel, "just
as the young stable lass was about to get a good sorting, the jockey announces he has second lot to attend to first"! thats when "Muirhead" enters the scene! MUIRHEAD!!!!! Sometimes you talk and i think yep he knows his stuff! Then you go and say something like that!! MUIRHEAD!!!!!
Were talking CHAMPION F*****G HURDLE!!I’ve had similar shyte thrown at me from experts like you.
Now I got Grassy telling me he could win the Aintree Hurdle, a race he’s not even entered for and a distance Noel Meade has no intentions of running him over.
Would that be the same F+++++G Champion Hurdle which was won by Sublimity at 16/1, Hardy Eustace at 33/1 etc Do I really need to go on?
I’ll tell you something you don’t know (Wouldn’t be difficult) Muirhead this season has been a constant worry to Noel Meade. The horse wasn’t eating up all season and was under constant supervision and was being weighed every day. Becuase of this the horse hasn’t fully developed yet but lately he is doing much better. If they can overcome the problem Meade reckons the horse will improve no end for it and be a much better horse than we have seen to date.
I said it wasn’t beyond the realms of possibility he could win the Champion next year. You in your little mind and exceptionally clever way are totally misquoting me and omitted the fact I said I was still in Binoculars camp.
By coincidence: How far was Punjabi beat last season? 6 lengths.
Muirhead was beaten 5 1/4 lengths this year and taking the above into consideration I’d say he has every chance of going very close in the F+++++G race next season.
its only been a couple of weeks 
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