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No it wasn’t and neither was the form that Binocular showed to be dubbed a "superstar".
The point is that Binocular stuffed them on a flat track and is meant to be the next best thing and HF’s wins were a creaming of the Top 2m Novice Hurdler (on the formbook) and the top filly/mare in training.
Fact is, Binocular is nowhere near to living up to his hype.
If he was the superstar we were all longing for, he’d have put that field of yokes to the sword.You won’t catch me disagreeing with you Monksfield. Given the circumstances I’d go so far as to say that Hurricane Fly’s form is already better than Binocular’s and anyone laying double figure prices about the former is just plain daft.
With most of the current novice staying hurdlers likely to go over fences sooner rather than later (Diamond Harry, Bensalem, Mikael D’Haguenet etc), Gerald, connections may be tempted to see how far they can go with Celestial Halo over hurdles.
That simply won’t happen mate. Pual Nichols has been dying to have a Champion Hurdler in his yard and now he has one there’s no chance of messing about with him.
Damn near won the thing and sure tio be even better next year
Erm, Aristo, you’ve misunderstood Equitrack.
When he writes about seeing how far they can go with Celestial Halo, he doesn’t mean stepping it up to 3 miles!
I see! sorry about that.
4/5 with WH MM for next year had to do my double with Binocular again
Prior to the Champion Hurdle we had bookmakers laying prices on Binocular winning by x amount of lengths.
Obviously he isn’t quite as good as I thought or AP for that matter but he is a 5yo not the only 5yo but a 5yo nonetheless.
He has done everything right and IMO would have won in another 50 yds proving beyond a doubt he stays every yard of the trip.
Only a fool would say he is overrated as he is one bloody good horse. Overhyped for sure but not overrated.
How many times did Sea Pigeon lose before he won? now he’s a legend.
I feel sure Nicky Henderson and AP learned a lot from that race and I doubt if either Celestial Halo or Punjabi will get the better of him again.
As I said in an earlier post he was ridden to get the trip and it cost him the race. He was actually starting to run for AP a bit too soon aproaching the 2nd last and the great man eased him just a fraction and checked him in his stride. After the 2nd last he stared to get at him and he was just a bit flat for few strides which is where he lost the race IMO. If AP had taken them on when the horse wanted to go at the send last I think it would have been a different story.
I am of course being wise after the fact and AP was doing what he thought best. I think if he knew what he knows now he would have just went for it and won if only just.
Now they know for sure he gets the trip there will be no quarter given and if developes into a race from the top of the hill AP can push the button much earlier if he has to. It’s a huge advantage knowing you have that option and can make the difference between winning and losing.
If Binocular trains on he will go to post a shorter price than the two who beat him this year IMO He’ll simply beat everything again like he did this year as I believe he’s not a horse who needs to be 100% to win gainst other animals in the same condition.
A bigger concern has got to be Hurricane Fly and how good is he?
I was never a Cousin Vinny fan and got slagged when I said the weight difference between him and Hurricane Fly wouldn’t make an ounce of difference if it was the other way round.
The fact is many said there wasn’t much between them. I know he beat Go Native but you would have to ask would he have beat him so far if at all at Cheltenham? I would like to think he would have won but that horse was hack cantering turning from home burst clear and was very impressive. He left HF stable companion Cousin Vinny standing like a tree
It’s hard to imagine Hurricane Fly shooting past him like he did on their previous meeting, which has me wondering how good the form of these horses actually is. No doubt in my mind HF stood out but is he a Champion Hurdle horse.
The bookies are obviously not sure either and I think his future place in the pecking list is very hard to judge at this time.
In short I will stick to Binocular for the time being as the most likely winner.
I did have another bet today on Katchit ew at 40/1 ew. Alan King has had an awful time with him this year. He was the first of the better horses to come under pressure along way out suggesting he wasn’t quite 100%
He was running on like a tiger at the end of the race and I couldn’t believe he got so close.I’m not saying he will win another Champion Hurdle but if he goes there 100% next year I think he’d be a great bet for a place.
The fact is many said there wasn’t much between them. I know he beat Go Native but you would have to ask would he have beat him so far if at all at Cheltenham? I would like to think he would have won but that horse was hack cantering turning from home burst clear and was very impressive. He left HF stable companion Cousin Vinny standing like a tree
It’s hard to imagine Hurricane Fly shooting past him like he did on their previous meeting, which has me wondering how good the form of these horses actually is. No doubt in my mind HF stood out but is he a Champion Hurdle horse.
I’m not sure if your concern is that he won’t get up the hill at Cheltenham or how GN travelled at Leopardstown compared to Cheltenham.
IIRC GN was cantering upsides Hurricane Fly coming to the last and the Hruricane shot clear of him after the last.
I’ve not doubt that HF is a Champion Hurdle horse and that i’ll be surprised if he starts bigger than 3/1 on the day next year. The 10/1 initially posted has already gone and provided he’s recovered from the injury (minor but still an injury) he’ll be very very tough to beat.
They’re quite confident of having him fit for Punchestown so I wouldn’t be too worried about the injury. It’ll be very interesting to see how he fares against Go Native unless maybe Willie decides to run him against the older horses like he did with Cooldine last year in the Stayers.
Hurricane Fly v Punjabi next month??
I saw a cracking bet last night on teletext, Paul Nicholls to win all four big races at cheltenham next year=100-1.
Master Minded is money in the bank in the QMCC, and its extremely difficult to see Nicholls not winning next years gold cup again.
Big Bucks looks a cracker for the World Hurdle again, as Doumen didnt sound too keen on the idea of Kasbah having another crack, saying something like "he was 200% fit on thursday and just beaten by better ones, but that is jumps for you". Punchestowns now looks to be going chasing,
So celestial halo is the real questionable one, IMO groundwise he couldnt have had things any less in his favour on tuesday and still ran an absolute cracker, it is very hard to see him not being better next year, and he could destroty this lot.
At 100-1 (cant remember wuhich bookies it was with) I think that could be worth a couple of quid.
In terms of single horse bets
For favorite backers Big Bucks at 4-1 may just look ridicuolous by the time of next years race, if theres no punchestowns about, and Kasbah doesnt return for a stab, in which case he would have no competetion unless something else comes through. Especially when You bear in mind that Big Bucks is undefeated since the decision to become a world hurdler, and with his ability to handle just about any ground he could indeed dominate this division all next season. I’m not really a favorite backer so with everything that could go wrong in a year I’ll probably just wait until next year and take him on (because I think he’ll probably be one of the shortest prices at next years festival) with an e/w shot.
Regarding the gold cup, Kauto Star was absolutely brilliant, but when you think about it, he actually had everything his own way, with the ground quickening and I reckon that Neptune Collonges would have been greatly disadvantaged by that and should be better next year (at 25-1 with paddy power he does look tempting for an e/w). Denman however wouldnt have been aswell suited to the quicker ground with his style of running and in finishing where he did, I reckon he is probably back to his best, or definitely not far off it, and at 6-1 if there is more cut next year, there will be much less between him and kauto. The way I see it, a bet on either kauto (5-2) or denman (6-1) is just a bet on what the ground will be next year as one is better than the other on the different likely conditions, so denman would look to be the better price IMO.
I like Hurricane Fly in the champ hurdle market but on what he has achieved so far I wouldnt fancy backing him at 7-1 for a champion hurdle and on what celestial halo has shown (and I dont think we’ve seen anywhere near what he is capable of) I think that 10-1 on him is the best price in the race, and if he gets a race in his favour next year (which he hasnt had this year, though he would have been laid out for the boylesports this year had it went ahead), he could go to cheltenham much shorter than 10-1 IMO. he would look the only at the front of the market I would consider backing.
One who should be a really big price at the minute though who will be much shorter in a months time is Starluck, now is the time to get on him IMO as he will beat the triumph 1,2,3 at aintree, so too will hebridean but which one wins is anyones guess, however I was very impressed with how starluck went in the Triumph, I never fancied him to see out the trip but he surpassed what I had expected and I think that he could potentially be the best from the juvenile novice division. IMO he only has Hebridean to beat.
I would say hebridean would be a good bet at a good price as he could be laid off shorter after aintree. Saticon really franked his Adonis win in the fred winter IMO.
The only concern with both Star Luck and Hebridean is that next year, if they are to be well campaigned (which starluck almost definitely will as the stables only big horse), they will be going toe to toe with the likes of binocular and punjabi in better ground races on flat tracks, but I would imagine that they are both massive prices at the minute, especially starluck.
I have little doubt that Hurricane Fly is a top class horse in the making and will come back and run well again. Do think Go Native has improved quite a bit since HF beat him so easily so that run is a little misleading. These niggling injuries have a habbit of coming back to haunt. The price of HF takes in to account a possibility of it reoccuring. Of course Binocular could also get an injury but he is (so far) a sound horse. The problem with him may be a temperament one. Does nothing wrong in a race but did sweat up quite badly at Cheltenham. Gets on his toes even at other courses, but Cheltenham with the crowds and everything might get to him. Celestial Halo is ideally suited by a stamina test. Although he might look a good price now, in trials that are slower run may not be as impressive; so drift in the betting.
It might be best to back HF and lay it off early next season once he’s shown that pace again. And back Binocular now and lay him off in feb as he’s likely to be very impressive in trials.
Go Native looks to have quite a bit of temperament already, high head carriage and idles in front. Many from the Meade yard find little in their later carreers. I expect Go Native to be the same.
Can’t see Punjabi improving so expect something to improve past him.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI do think Binny has now become an interesting wager.
At 7/1 ish he is a tempting E/W. I could see him improving on this year’s effort. I’m just not sure if he has to have good ish ground?
If I could be sure he can perform to his best on all ground then I think, at this stage, he would be the one for me.
Zip
I saw a cracking bet last night on teletext, Paul Nicholls to win all four big races at cheltenham next year=100-1.
I’m fairly sure that bet was available this year too.
I saw a cracking bet last night on teletext, Paul Nicholls to win all four big races at cheltenham next year=100-1.
I’m fairly sure that bet was available this year too.
Never noticed it this year, but think I’ll have sneaky tenner on that, as IMO three of the races are closed to home and hosed if Master Minded, Big Bucks and the gold cup lot make it there in one piece. So the biggest part of the 100-1 is taht celetsial halo gets a little bit of cut in the ground next year.
Hurricane Fly confuses me I was going to write something but have decided to go out instead
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On the subject of Calgary Bay for the Gold Cup in 2010 (carrying on from the Champion Hurdle thread), I can’t see him running in the race, let alone winning it.
I think an awful lot of Calgary Bay. He’s a big, good-looking horse and rightfully got the nod from the Channel 4 paddock team at Cheltenham – he looked beautiful before the Arkle.
"He has so much natural ability it’s frightening."
Graham Lee"He’s the most athletic big horse I’ve ever ridden."
Tony McCoy"I think this is a star of the future."
Henrietta Knight"He has loads of raw talent, probably as much as anything in this line-up, but he hasn’t won anywhere near as often as he probably should have done and is in danger of becoming an underachiever."
RP Arkle Trophy analysisThe RP analysis perfectly sums up the horse.
Graham Lee said that Calgary Bay cruised round on the bridle, but was far too weak to close out a race at Market Rasen in a novice hurdle. This has been somewhat evident this year, too.
He was a backward 5YO and there’s no doubt he’s far from the finished article as a big, gawky 6YO, but he has a helluva lot to prove now. There are serious doubts surrounding his mental toughness.
Granted, he wasn’t helped early on in the Arkle when he had to avoid the stricken Tatenen, but he travelled well throughout before once again finding precious little at the business end. You could be kind and say he didn’t have the pace, but he was beaten far too easily for my liking.
I don’t think he will be physically strong enough for the Gold Cup next year and would struggle to see out the trip at this stage of his career. The worst thing you can do is give a horse like Calgary Bay a slog before he’s ready for it. It could ruin him.
He has the potential to be a contender in 2011 and 2012, touch wood, all being well. As an 8YO / 9YO you would think he’d be in his prime to tackle the race – he certainly has the physical profile of a Gold Cup horse.
I think Hen will keep him between two miles-four and three miles next season. I’d say it’s odds-on the horse will make his seasonal bow in either the Haldon Gold Cup (two miles-one) or the Peterborough Chase.
Potential. How many times have we heard that about a horse?
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