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My axe-wielding, dismissive view on the runners…
Deep Purple
– won an extremely weak renewal last year. Stays well enough, but now more weight and blood vessel worries. PASS.
Knockara Bea
u
– useful novice, scooped up some good pots, but an iffy jumper (possibly related to the jockey) and a little short of this level in any case. Front-running won’t be easy with several tearaways in the field either. Pass.
– smooth winner of two handicaps last season before good effort in the Gold Cup (travelled well into the later stages). Obviously needed his reappearance recently and classy enough to have a big chance. He has a juicy-looking mark of 146 at the moment though. If CB is really up to winning this, why not try the Hennessy? I’m hoping it is because big handicaps are not really a Hen Knight thing.
Ollie Magern
– ran a stormer on unfavourable ground in this last year, just caught close home. Age must be catching up though. More suitable conditions this year, bound to be hard-fit, each-way hopes.
Barbers Shop
– looks like a bit of a dog to me. I expect him to be very sharp for this, but his efforts in the Ryanair, Hennessy and King George hardly give me enthusiasm for his stamina or attitude. Pass.
Nacarat
– likeable but tends to need his reappearance. Not hopeless if fit enough given how he can be more adaptable in tactics than given credit for. Reluctant pass.
That’s Rhythm
– Outclassed.
The Tother One
– another quirky one, but has run well in handicaps with big weights. Hold-up style will suit perfectly here but will need a real finesse ride. Shortlisted.
Conclusion:
1 – Calgary Bay
2 – The Tother One
3 – Ollie MagernSee What your saying Reet he’s certainly got the ability, my concern is that he seems a stone better in handicaps. All at the front of the market have been well tried in graded races but looking at the form it hardly enthuses. Last years winner came from the novice ranks and it was interesting to note the last winner who came from handicaps was Our Vic, he’d already won a Grade1 though!
I will be looking at how the RSA form works out into the older horses. I cant find a good thing here this year but luck in running to all those that can.
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The ground description is now good but I suspect it will still be on the fast side of good.
Nacarat will have Ollie Magern for company so one thing you need here is a horse who travels really will in his races and has conditions to suit.
That is much more important when you have horses likely to go off at a million miles an hour.Ollie Magern showed he’s still got the ability to win but this isn’t Perth and he lost 20 consecutive races prior to that facile win against moderate horse.
Would be nice to see him win but realistically he’ll be doing brilliantly well to be placed.
Nacarat’s trainer says he needs this ground. I wonder how he works that one out as he’s never ran on anything that didn’t have a fair bit of cut in it (good to soft in places) The a last time he won he beat failed chaser Possol round the easy Kempton bends which may be more his cup of tea than Wetherby over and extended 3 miles.
The fact everything Tom George sends out has stopped like shot when the pressure is applied is a huge worry as well.If the ground is on the fast side of good and the pace is fast the first horse to feel the pinch will be Knockara Beau. The more cut he gets the better he is and if he were mines he’d be going to Carlisle tomorrow.
Calgary Bay doesn’t seem to stay this trip at Cheltenham but round here he’s a force to be reckoned with.
Last year Hen gave him one run and then he turned up at Donny not fancied and won carrying top weight. Obviously the plan is for a repeat of that performance and he has a huge asset in he that canters all over the top of everything around him. If he gets everything his own way he could win but if he comes under pressure he’ll most likely find nothing. Dodgy springs to mind and you need a lot of luck to catch him on the right day.
Deep Purple is at his best when allowed to run his own race. He travels much better if left to his own devices and the worry is Nacarat could spoil his day. He barely gets this trip and he could be a spent force when it really matter. Very good horse though and no surprise if he won.
The Tother One is usually held up in the rear and that may not be ideal here if he gets too detached but Ruby is a great judge of pace. He’s obviously had problems having run only 6 times in 2 years but Ruby has come here to ride only him so I would imagine he’s fit and raring to go. Looks a worthy fav and this race could fall right in his lap.
I slightly prefer Barber’s Shop. He is normally quite prominent in his races and travels really well in his race so there’s less chance of him being left with too much to do. I can see a few of these falling by the wayside around 2 out or before and Barber’s Shop being the one to catch.
I doubt if this race will be 4 horses going to that last all with a chance and can see Barber’s Shop putting enough distance between him and the others from 2 out so even Ruby can’t catch him.
1. Barber’s Shop
2. The Tother OneThe more i look at this race under these conditions the more i think
Barbers shop
jumps off the page,i find it surprising that he is getting such decent weight pulls from those above him! Knockara Beau still has the profile to run a place even on less than ideal ground,Ollie Magern will be tuned to the minute as this is his Gold Cup,Deep Purple cant win off top weight,Thetotherone is just a good handicapper and poor Calgary bay just spends too much time in the air! Nacarats Racing Post Chase run would make him a serious contender today too! I think it will be a cracker!
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Calgary Bay.
Calgary Bay for me – needs to win this to progress I feel. Plenty of scope but needs to find more under pressure.
Would think he needs to go out in front and gallop them into submission
slightly disappointed with the last run though as a note of caution
Another vote for Calgary Bay from me. Also put it in a rev exacta with The Tother One. and a double with Can’t Buy Time at Ascot later!
Good luck all!
Ruby gave The Tother One some peach!
Great ride by Sam Thomas on the bold running grey Nacarat too, won easily.
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Lesson learned never change your mind
Great stuff from Sam Thomas. He’ll be looking forward to ridng out at PN’s yard tomorrow
Very impressive display from Nacarat, really enjoys himself out in front, and well done to Ollie Magern who again ran a very good race from the front, and stuck on well.
Barbers Shop very disappointing.
Knockara Beau, dont really know what to say about him, a very, very disappointing run from the horse, if you can call it a run.
Calgary Bay may need dropping back to 2 mile 4, as he was travelling very well and then just emptied, and didnt stay on at all. Would be nice to see Calgary Bay pick up a decent race sometime, as i do think he has a lot of ability and would be nice to see him get his head in front.
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Couldn’t agree more about Calgary Bay Gaz. I thought it was just Cheltenham that found him out but that must have been e very poor race he won at Donny. Looks a definite non stayer but try convincing Hen and Terry of that. I’m sure they go to bed dreaming about him being another Best Mate
Come on guys, this is getting too easy! Cracking ride from Sam the Man, and the Ante Post Prince shows his worth again!
Come on guys, this is getting too easy! Cracking ride from Sam the Man, and the Ante Post Prince shows his worth again!
Ante-Post Prince eh!!
Well done allNacarat
supporters,his Racing Post Chase run had me in palpatations,i remember that well! He gave lumps to the very well handicapped
Razor royale
that day!
Shame you didn’t pick him this time TAPK. Congrats to those that did. Well done the lovely grey horse (I’m a proper fan, see).
Barbers Shop was total pants. He would have had to need that run soooooooooooooooooo badly for me to even comprehend backing him again – which I won’t be.
Ho hum.
Zip
I always knew Ollie would run a great race and he did just that! I was so chuffed with his run i simply had to sing his praises on William Hill radio! Via email obviously. Send him to Aintree for the Becher!
Brilliant performance by Nacarat, really enjoyed that. He looks a nice fit for the King George, for my money. I actually wouldn’t mind checking out some Gold Cup ante post for him. Bound to be some e/w value in there somewhere?
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