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Fans of Long Run and people who like throwing money away may be interested in a quote of as low as 20/1 for Long Run to win next year’s Grand National.
And Jesus Wept.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It was a long distance chase with a handful of runners & plenty of time to think. His blunders are nothing to do with SWC imo, but we will agree to disagree. I know there are pretty strong feelings about him.
Agree, although i don’t have as strong feelings as some and the vitriol is uncalled for.
In my opinion Sam Waley Cohen is not the best jockey for that horse but it’s a family thing.
The owners of Beneficent (particularly the fat ginger leader of the the gang) appeared to be in rather heated discussion with AP afterwards in the paddock. AP was doing his best to keep calm. I followed them out back to the stand and said fat one was continuously chuntering "fecking Harry Potter" to his hillbilly s disciples.
I can only assume Cheltenham success has gone to their heads, although to be fair, they were all dressed in a more than down to earthly manner (ie. Unwashed jeans etc.).Well obviously I’m happy that Harry Topper won, and glad I took the price a few days before the race, but I was so disappointed to see Long Run looking decidedly average. Like I said before the race, i didn’t think Long Run would win, as he always needs that first run, but this was too bad to be true.
I’m tending to agree with you Steeplechasing, I think there may be something like a back problem, he does sometimes look flat when jumping. I can’t for the life of me, and I’ve mentioned this before, understand why there seems to be so much negativity about this horse. His record is pretty amazing. Yesterday was the first time in his racing career that he was outside the first 3. He has won the Gold Cup,the King George twice and some other top notch races, not to mention some terrific races against Kauto Star.
I had thought Long Run was my idea of the King George winner this year, but I have to say I’m worried after that performance. Any horse can have an off day, but I would want some assurances from Nicky Henderson that the horse is A1 before the race. I thought 6/1 was a pretty decent bet before yesterdays race, 10/1 (12/1 in a place) now is huge for this horse if there is a valid reason for yesterday, and he is sound come boxing day. I’m tempted but I won’t risk it until they confirm he is sound and have some explanation.
I see the SWC issue has been brought up again, I haven’t changed my view on this since I voiced it last year before the Gold Cup. I think Sam is a cracking guy and a good horseman, so it’s no slight on him that I will still maintain that Long Run would benefit from having Barry Geraghty on his back. Geraghty is a better horseman, simple as that. Walsh and McCoy are better jockeys, so I can’t understand why people take a negative view when I point out that the better the jockey, especially in top races, the better the chance the horse has. Would Long Run settle better and jump better with Geraghty on him, well the simple truth is that we are never going to find out, but I believe there would be some improvement. If it didn’t matter who was on a horse, you might as well bring Rosemary Henderson out of retirement….no offence Rosemary.
Anyway back to Harry Topper, as I mentioned before the race, he tends to be caught for pace at times and looks like he is getting scrubbed along, and that is exactly what happened yesterday. But I did say that the further he goes the better he looks, and that he strikes me as a Welsh national type. Nothing yesterday has changed that opinion. It will be interesting to see where he is aimed through the season. He is in the Hennessy and is being quoted a 12/1 chance. If Tidal Bay (highest rated in the race) goes for the Hennessy, that would keep Harry’s weight down (19lbs inferior)and 12/1 would be a decent bet, but if not then harry would be carrying a lot of weight in a hot race, and you can’t afford to let them get away from you in that race.
Anyway, good luck….and a couple of quid e/w on Another palm (18/1) in the Cork National today wouldn’t be the worst thing you could do.
I see the SWC issue has been brought up again, I haven’t changed my view on this since I voiced it last year before the Gold Cup. I think Sam is a cracking guy and a good horseman, so it’s no slight on him that I will still maintain that Long Run would benefit from having Barry Geraghty on his back. Geraghty is a better horseman, simple as that. Walsh and McCoy are better jockeys, so I can’t understand why people take a negative view when I point out that the better the jockey, especially in top races, the better the chance the horse has. Would Long Run settle better and jump better with Geraghty on him, well the simple truth is that we are never going to find out, but I believe there would be some improvement. If it didn’t matter who was on a horse, you might as well bring Rosemary Henderson out of retirement….no offence Rosemary.
Yeah
I noticed " For Me " Fitzy came out with that classic platitude yesterday that Keith Donoghue must be livid because he’s missed a winning ride on Roi Du Mee. Really naive assumption. Different jockeys, different ride.
Obviously it’s not always the better jockey that improves the horse, just a jockey that brings out the best in their mount. Claimers, apprentices or amateurs often perform better on some horses than the top jockeys because of their riding style or that unquantifiable factor of how much a horse likes a jockey.
I agree with you Mark, the thing about Long Run is that we are never going to know if the horse would improve for BG, and that’s a pity. But hey ho, worse things happen at sea….or so they say.
Well obviously I’m happy that Harry Topper won, and glad I took the price a few days before the race, but I was so disappointed to see Long Run looking decidedly average. Like I said before the race, i didn’t think Long Run would win, as he always needs that first run, but this was too bad to be true.
I’m tending to agree with you Steeplechasing, I think there may be something like a back problem, he does sometimes look flat when jumping. I can’t for the life of me, and I’ve mentioned this before, understand why there seems to be so much negativity about this horse. His record is pretty amazing. Yesterday was the first time in his racing career that he was outside the first 3. He has won the Gold Cup,the King George twice and some other top notch races, not to mention some terrific races against Kauto Star.
I had thought Long Run was my idea of the King George winner this year, but I have to say I’m worried after that performance. Any horse can have an off day, but I would want some assurances from Nicky Henderson that the horse is A1 before the race. I thought 6/1 was a pretty decent bet before yesterdays race, 10/1 (12/1 in a place) now is huge for this horse if there is a valid reason for yesterday, and he is sound come boxing day. I’m tempted but I won’t risk it until they confirm he is sound and have some explanation.
I see the SWC issue has been brought up again, I haven’t changed my view on this since I voiced it last year before the Gold Cup. I think Sam is a cracking guy and a good horseman, so it’s no slight on him that I will still maintain that Long Run would benefit from having Barry Geraghty on his back. Geraghty is a better horseman, simple as that. Walsh and McCoy are better jockeys, so I can’t understand why people take a negative view when I point out that the better the jockey, especially in top races, the better the chance the horse has. Would Long Run settle better and jump better with Geraghty on him, well the simple truth is that we are never going to find out, but I believe there would be some improvement. If it didn’t matter who was on a horse, you might as well bring Rosemary Henderson out of retirement….no offence Rosemary.
Anyway back to Harry Topper, as I mentioned before the race, he tends to be caught for pace at times and looks like he is getting scrubbed along, and that is exactly what happened yesterday. But I did say that the further he goes the better he looks, and that he strikes me as a Welsh national type. Nothing yesterday has changed that opinion. It will be interesting to see where he is aimed through the season. He is in the Hennessy and is being quoted a 12/1 chance. If Tidal Bay (highest rated in the race) goes for the Hennessy, that would keep Harry’s weight down (19lbs inferior)and 12/1 would be a decent bet, but if not then harry would be carrying a lot of weight in a hot race, and you can’t afford to let them get away from you in that race.
Anyway, good luck….and a couple of quid e/w on Another palm (18/1) in the Cork National today wouldn’t be the worst thing you could do.
Bailey has tweeted that it is "unlikely" that Harry Topper will go for the Hennessy. Personally I’m not sure it’s jumping technique is up to the test
I was pleased to hear it was a dirty scope and nothing physical with Long Run. His consistency and attitude are rare and he’s still only 8. But he’s had some hard races. I don’t think he has gone downhill in the way his mark suggests – he was simply overrated on the two big races he won back to back.
In his King George in 2011, he met a sick Kauto Star, a two mile four horse in Riverside Theatre, then the usual suspects – Nacarat, Planet of Sound etc. He went up 17lbs for that, then three more were added when he ran down a pair who’d exhausted themselves battling from three out off a pace that had been hot throughout – SWC arguably outrode the pros that day. Remember too, that the second fav, Imperial Commander, pulled up (bled & lame).
He’s never been a 182 horse for my money. His mark now, 171, is about as good as he’s ever been, though I’d maybe allow a couple of pounds deterioration and put that down to very tough races. The Battle of the Somme he had in winning the 2012 KG would have finished quite a few horses. He’s hellish tough, though I’d find it hard to believe these constant challenges at the top level haven’t taken something out of him.
For me, he is what he’s always been; an out and out stayer. Against top class opposition he needs the desperate ground he got in the KG last year (worst going in the race since 1937), or hara-kiri performances by the other jocks in setting an unsustainable pace. In a fairly run Grade 1 on reasonable ground at 24 to 26 furlongs, he simply hasn’t got the pace at the business end.
As for Harry Topper – there’s a horse with an engine. He travelled farther than everything else in the race yesterday, walked through one fence, clattered a few more and pulled some double-jointed moves to stay upright. He looks as honest as you could wish for and if he can regain his confidence, he’d be a threat at the top level.
He was on the deck in his final two outings last season and went at many of the fences yesterday with obvious trepidation. I think an extreme close-up might have shown him shutting his eyes on take-off and hoping for the best!
K Bailey has a job on his hands in rebuilding belief in this horse, but if he achieves it, HT would be a very lively Gold Cup outsider. And if his jumping doesn’t get better, oddly enough, he’d be tailor-made for the National. With the cores gone from those fences now (thankfully), HT would just barrel his way through the loose spruce. And if Long Run were mine, that’s where he’d be going next year. I’d miss the Gold Cup and send him to Aintree. Ninety nine percent of his errors are at his back end, and he’d just pull the spruce down and stay forever. And guess which jockey currently has the best strike rate over the National fences?
Long Run scoped dirty after the race.
Always the excuse, yet they are scoped before a race.
Long Run scoped dirty after the race.
Always the excuse, yet they are scoped before a race.
I don’t understand Mark, are you suggesting that the scope, carried out by a vet after the race was incorrect, or made up because he ran a bad race. Obviously they would not have run the horse if they had had a bad scope before the race. Long Run was scoped on Monday, and tests showed he was clear, that was the last time he was checked. I’m assuming that in the 5 day period between him being checked, and the race itself, he has developed an infection or problem of some sort.
I’m not sure what you think is wrong here.
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