- This topic has 27 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 11 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Always a sign that the jumps season is stepping up a gear when this race comes round, and entries out now for Saturdays renewal.
Benefficient
Big Fella Thanks
Billie Magern
Cape Tribulation
First Lieutenant
Harry Topper
Long Run
Master of the Hall
The Giant Bolster
Unioniste
Wayward PrinceBenefficient was one of the few highlights of a difficult Cheltenham Festival for me, and think he’s got a few big prizes in him this year. Would be of interest if he makes the trip. Could well be a dark horse for Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Cape Tribulation was bit of a disappointment in The Gold Cup, but this seems a more realistic race, and I’d imagine this has been a long term target for him.
First Lieutenant needs no introduction, and should be lot sharper for his re-appearance. If he makes the trip, an obvious big player, but I’b a little surprised to see him here, rather than Down Royal.
Harry Topper is very well regarded by many, though to be honest he’s kinda passed me by a bit. If he’s as good as some expect him to be, then another in the mix.
Don’t know if Long Run will make the journey, but hopefully he will, though there is the suspicion that his will be a pipe-opener for Haydock a few weeks later.
Be very interesting to see how Unioniste fares this season, and wouldn’t be too much of leap of faith to see him be competitive here.
The Giant Bolster always seems to find one too good in this type of company, but is a very likeable horse, and sure to be not too far away, without winning.
Master of the Hall folded tamely in this last year, and would be huge shock if he won.
Big Fella Thanks, and Wayward Prince would probably be shock winners too, but I don’t think they’d disgrace themselves either.
Looks very definitely a no-bet race for me, well you can’t really bet when you fancy 90% of the runners…………but might just have a “fun” each way on Billie Magern.
Here’s hoping they all line up.
Hope they all run cause we’re going! Mind you, even if only a few run it’ll still be a good race. By the way, Grandouet is due to run in a beginners chase at Uttoxeter on Friday so we’re tempted to go there as well.
Mouth watering lineup! You could make a case for most of them!
I reckon Cape Tribulation could take some beating. Won impressively over course and distance back in December and
if
Long Run is at his most vulnerable first time out, i’d give him the nod.
I love Billie Magern. A really cracking horse who i’ve been following for what seems like forever! Not sure he’s up for this kind of company, but if ‘horses for courses’ is hereditary, then he might borrow a favor from good old Ollie! Might just be worth that ‘fun each way’
The Giant Bolster for me, not quite good enough to take a king george or gold cup this really should be one of this seasons targets. If ive read the conditions correct
then he gets in off 11st and pretty well gets weight off every other horse bar a couple of rags. Good renewal.Fascinating as it stands. What we end up with is another matter. Benefficient and First Lieutenant hold engagements in the JN Wine on Saturday at Down Royal, although the CH is worth more than three times the JN in prize money. If they both turned up, the latter might be the best bet (EW) unless the ground makes it a gruelling test.
As strawbear mentioned, if D Bridgwater takes the view that this is The Giant Bolster’s Gold Cup, he’ll take all the beating. He is probably 5 or 6lbs better at Cheltenham than elsewhere, but if spot-on could lead them a merry dance.
Unless it turns very soft, this will be too sharp for Long Run. He needs a serious stamina test these days, and a fast pace on decent ground would put his jumping under pressure too.
I’ll take a closer look at them when we know more about likely runners.
I like UNIONISTE at 9/2 got stacks of improvement to come this season.May be a early season horse too started well but not peform in latter half of year.
Agree with Unioniste for this. Long Run the superior horse but conditions and course in the former’s favour.
Don’t understand connections running of Master Of The Hall last year. Ran in this conceding weight to most and yet could have run in the Haldon with JM riding off about 11 stone. Bizarre.
I would have Long Run all day for this, except for the fact that this is his first run and he always seems to need it. The problem is that he is not primed to be in top form, and that is very understandable as the King George is the target at this time of year. He always comes on a lot for his first run, and has lost first time out the last three years. Even not 100% he might still be good enough, he is certainly better than anything in the field and with First Lieutenant staying at home, it is his to lose.
As much as I love the horse, I don’t think 5/4 is such great value and therefore I’m trying to see who will upset the party.
Unioniste is a very decent animal and being favourite for the RSA earlier this year, it entitles him to be right up there if Paul Nicholls has him ready. 7/2 is not a bad price, if Nicholls fancies the horse he won’t be that price on Saturday.
However, I’m going to take a bit of a punt on a horse that I’m still trying to decide just how good he is. Harry Topper has won some decent races, and that is when he looks at certain points in the race that he needs pushed along and he can get caught when the pace quickens.
He was very unlucky last time at Punchestown in the Champion Novice chase, there was nothing he could do when brought down. In the previous race at Kelso he was just moving into the race nicely and looked sure to take part when he blundered badly at the 9th and gave Timmy Murphy no chance. It’s the two races before that, at Newbury and Exeter, that give me the impression that he could be a much better horse than he is given credit for. He won both races going away, in a very impressive fashion.
I think he could be a bit special at longer distance races. He seems to be better the further he goes, and not just plodding on, he takes off in the latter stages. I can see him being a Welsh national sort, or dare I suggest it, at 6years he might just be a a decent punt for the Gold Cup, although I’m talking about next year. Long Run certainly won it as a 6year old, but I’m not sticking my neck out far enough to suggest he’s the new Long Run.
He’s a work in progress as far as I’m concerned, but he’s shown enough for me to take a bit of a chance here at 8/1. If the rain does come, he will love it. He handles heavy, but he is versatile enough to win on good. I have to say I’m quite sweet on him.
A small win bet on Harry Topper,I had hoped for 8 runners as I would have had a decent ew bet.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
My blog post from last night ( couldn’t get on TRF then)
What happens over Wetherby racecourse in the dark hours between now and sunrise could decide the outcome of the feature race, the Charlie Hall Chase at 3.35. The BBC’s moving weather map shows rain will fall twice before dawn, though there’s no reliable indication of how heavy it will be. The more the better for supporters of Long Run and Harry Topper, and probably Unioniste. Not only will very soft ground improve their chances, it might seriously affect the likelihood of Benefficient seeing out the trip. I advised twitter followers this morning that Benefficient was good value at 10/1, and he has shortened throughout the day. If the rain stays away, he could go off around 6/1.
Apart from Long Run, Benefficient is the only Grade 1 winner in the field (he’s won two of them). He’s a big horse, a Cheltenham Festival winner, who seems to be improving as he matures. Whether that improvement will bring with it the ability to last this trip out against the likes of Long Run, we shall see. If it remains good to soft, soft in places, as it was today, I think he’ll have every chance. Even at 6/1 or so, if underfoot conditions are not too taxing, he’d be worth a bet through the Racing Post App (or William Hill mobile app), as you get your stake returned as a free bet for horses finishing second in Channel 4 races. If it turns very soft, or heavy, Benefficient is probably best avoided, as a serious stamina test will greatly increase the probability of Long Run winning it.
Long Run is a fine animal. I’ve never backed him, mainly because I thought he was badly over rated after his first Gold Cup win. I have no problems with the jockey and I think Sam Waley Cohen takes an awful lot of unmerited flak. His ride on Rajdhani Express at the Festival was a superb one and he’s highly talented. He just doesn’t get the race-riding ‘practice’ of the pros, otherwise, I’ve no doubt he’d be in the top flight. Long Run also has an inclination to leave his hind legs in a fence, especially under pressure. If the ground stays decent and they go a good clip, you could see one or two mistakes from him. I’m convinced he needs a serious stamina test these days.
Kim Bailey says Harry Topper is the best he’s had since Master Oats, and it would please many in racing to see KB with another top class horse. Harry Topper beat Benefficient at Newbury, but the Irish horse has improved 18lbs on official ratings since – Harry Topper 12lbs. HT is hugely promising but still needs to prove he is up to this class, whereas Benefficient has his two Grade 1s in the trophy cabinet. However, if it turns very soft, I’ll have a saver on Harry Topper through the apps mentioned above.
Of the others, I think Unioniste is a bit of a plodder. At this level, you need to be able to pull something extra out, and I don’t think has it to pull. He’s poor value in my opinion, although he’s another who would benefit from plenty rain.
The remainder are thoroughly exposed and outclassed.
It’s great to see the top-notchers back at the start of a new season. Let’s hope they all come back safe and sound.
A bad favourite in an ultimately poor race. Glad to see Bailey with another good stayer but that form….
Makes Long Run’s performance even worse.
Waley Cohen’s had about seven rides in regulation this season. He may well be talented but that’s no preparation for the Charlie Hall.Mark, he keeps very fit outside of racing. What other prep would he have needed?
I’m not one who’d back Long Run, as I said, but there’s no denying he’s been a model of consistency and today was too bad to be true. I’ve gone on for what seems like years about his jumping, as he looks to me (and always has done) to have an innate back problem. When he comes under pressure, he often leaves his rear legs in fences, as he just cannot get them high enough. (Simonsig does the same)
I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that he’s hurt himself today in that bad blunder.
I see it as akin to asking a footballer who hasn’t played a first team game in weeks to start an FA Cup semi final.
He’ll ride winners, he’s more than capable of that, but he’s not a top jockey. Like you say, Long Run has a history of making jumping errors and thus needs someone more capable.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.