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Onthesteal,
Had KF ridden Mawatheeq – well, had
anyone else
ridden Mawatheeq – Sariska, as admirable and game a filly as she is, wouldn’t have seen which way he went.
This fellow has some big aspirations for next year, but I doubt we’ll get seven to one again.
the only horse to take out of that race is sariska even tho im being biased but it was blatant for every 1 to see mile and half better start softer ground spencer back on board im not saying fallon did anything wrong but maybe he slightly panicked midway through the race cause she seemed to be being pushed along for a hell of a long time i think this filly could well win the arc GRANTED HER CONDITIONS . if u think about it unless theres a superstar among this years 2 yr olds which is looking unlikely bar elusive pimpernell is the only 1 that could be in my mind what would sariska have to beat in the arc on soft ground .stacellita just does not stay a mile and a half i must admit i frt it would win the arc 2 n a half furlongs out but wascompletely empty at the end of the race shes the best filly around bar sariska.the colts are useless.
the only horse to take out of that race is sariska even tho im being biased but it was blatant for every 1 to see mile and half better start softer ground spencer back on board im not saying fallon did anything wrong but maybe he slightly panicked midway through the race cause she seemed to be being pushed along for a hell of a long time i think this filly could well win the arc GRANTED HER CONDITIONS . if u think about it unless theres a superstar among this years 2 yr olds which is looking unlikely bar elusive pimpernell is the only 1 that could be in my mind what would sariska have to beat in the arc on soft ground .stacellita just does not stay a mile and a half i must admit i frt it would win the arc 2 n a half furlongs out but wascompletely empty at the end of the race shes the best filly around bar sariska.the colts are useless.
It is way, way too early to be writing off next years three year old colts. This time last year who would’ve thought Sea The Stars would now be being hailed as the best horse since Dancing Brave.
If we’re going to criticise the three year old colts lets at least wait until they are three.
Onthesteal,
Had KF ridden Mawatheeq – well, had
anyone else
ridden Mawatheeq – Sariska, as admirable and game a filly as she is, wouldn’t have seen which way he went.
This fellow has some big aspirations for next year, but I doubt we’ll get seven to one again.
I hadn’t seen the replay but had a look again just now. Mawatheeq ran away from the whip a couple of times in the closing stages and had to be straightened up, losing momentum and ground, no doubt. He was finishing to good effect after that and it would have been interesting had things gone to plan for both Sariska and Mawatheeq. I’d certainly be more willing to forgive poor Sariska than Richard Hills on this occasion!
Warning, long post, sorry got a little carried away in my defence of Sea The Stars.
Wow, Sea The Stars had one extra run. Every single run came on pretty quick ground. Good at the absolute worst.
Zarkava proved herself on firm all the way down to good to soft. She gave away several lengths at the start of the Vermeille, and for the love of god, she beat Youmzain 10 times as easily as Sea The Stars did.
It’s very easy in the heat of the moment to say ‘that’s one of the greatest horses that’s ever lived’, but withstanding hindsight is the real test. Hindsight, like looking down the line 12 months on and saying ‘wow, the horses Zarkava beat have won 19 Group 1s between them’.
When is Nashwan’s name ever mentioned alongside Dancing Brave, Nijinsky, Sea Bird, Mill Reef? Never. I’d argue all day long that Nashwan achieved something a little more special since he took in 4 gruelling Group 1s in the space of 11 weeks. He beat his elders at the earliest possible opportunities. The form is rubbish, but so is Sea The Stars’.
The runner-up in 2 of his races has been beaten today by City Leader. The runner-up in the Juddmonte was beaten even by Fame And Glory. The runner-up in the Guineas has proved himself a non-stayer of a mile three times this season.
Let’s look at his record in 12 months time and then analyse him, because right now most people are still drunk on him.
Dear oh dear.
Some people might as well burn their form books. They don’t seem to know how to read them.
I can see why (given the sex allowance) a form student might believe Zarkava the equal of Sea The Stars. Taking a line through Youmzain who was beaten 2 lengths by both horses. The fact you’ve named yourself after the filly and are clearly in love is clouding your judgement. Suggest you apply for a part in the remake of Equus. Yet an ostrich also springs to mind. To think Zarkava is so much better than Sea The Stars and this years three year olds are substandard is just mind boggling (was going to say something I shouldn’t).
That Arc was Zarckava’s only run against colts (colts are generally better than fillies). It was undoubtedly her best performance. If you disagree please give a form line. She was an exceptional filly, rated 133 by Timeform (not 131 as Wallace stated). So effectively just 4lbs behind Sea The Stars. (Sex allowance is not included in their ratings). That is (I believe) the best rating recorded by a female not to race at four; so nothing to denigrate her in any way. Was there more improvement in her at four? Nobody knows. Equally, temperament she showed in the last two races may have got the better of her. Almost planted herself in the Prix Vermaille and looked to run out in the Arc.
Yes, she won the Arc easily; but so did Sea The Stars, both having trouble in running. Youmzain was rated 131 in Timeform Racehorses 2008 with Conduit 130. So they must have added quite a bit to Zarkava’s rating for ease of victory. In my opinion their Arc’s were worth the same rating. Youmzain and Conduit in my opinion the two horses to rate Sea The Stars’s race on. Just a question of whether either put up a better performance elsewhere.To say she beat 19 Group 1 winners means little. It is whether those winners ran to form. Duke Of Marmalade for example. And fillies races are far less competitive anyway, with inferior horses, so are easier to win.
Sea The Stars won the Guineas, but improved afterwards. Beat Delegator by an easy 1 ½ lengths, Gan Amhras, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman. With O’Brien out of form at the time and Rip having a late injury scare, both his colts improved later on. Delegator went on to finish a close second to Mastercraftsman at Royal Ascot, who also won the Irish Guineas easily. Gan Amhras was probably injured afterwards, never going at any stage in the Derby, despite his mile speed. Had horses like Ouqba (Jersey) well beaten.
Lord Shanakill, beaten 1 ½ lengths by Mastercraftsman and Delegator at Ascot, won the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat next time out.
In the Derby Sea The Stars beat Fame And Glory 1 ¾ lengths, with Masterofthehorse, Rip Van Winkle and Golden Sword a neck, nose and short head further behind. With 6 lengths back to the rest. It is true the Irish Derby did not have strength in depth, but it never does. The English Derby separates the dreamers who don’t re-oppose. Nothing wrong with the form of the principles. In what was not the quag-mire some people think. Officially good to yieilding. Golden Sword finishing second; seems right to believe a Derby second at least ran to form. Fame And Glory beat Golden Sword easing down(worth an extra pound or three) by 5 lengths, at least double the distance Sea The Stars did. Third Mourayan another length away had already been twice well beaten by Fame And Glory. The Aga’s colt probably showed some improvement anyway, in first time blinkers. Mourayan may have needed the run after a six week break race at 1 ½m next time (is a lazy stayer). Would have gone close but for repeated traffic problems in the St Leger. A cup horse next year. So he upheld the form. Golden Sword ran poorly afterwards but had already a busy season. His runs before, in the Derby and against Masterofthehorse at Chester uphold the form. Masterofthehorse ran poorly at the Curragh and subsequantly sold. On performance Fame And Glory’s Derby is better than Sea The Stars but Sea The Stars won idling and with something in hand; so it’s difficult to judge. Improved afterwards anyway.
Not until the Eclipse did we see the true Sea The Stars. Idled but beat Rip Van Winkle (for the third time) by a smaller margin of 1 length. Yet Rip undoubtedly improved. Conduit 4 ½ lengths back, may or may not be better over further. (Breeders Cup and St Leger) But even further back came Brigadier Gerrard and Italian Derby winner Cima De Triomphe (beaten a total of 10 ½ lengths), Steel Tango Darley Stakes(14 ¼), Racing Post second Jukebox Jury who went on to win group 3 Lancaster Stakes, group 2 Prix de Deauville and group 1 Prix Europa, (14 ¾) , Champion Stakes winner Twice Over (17 ¼).
But it is what Rip Van Winkle achieved in his subsequent starts that is impressive. Beat Paco Boy by 2 ½ lengths with 4 back to Ghanaati. Paco had won the Queen Anne with ease and recognised as one of the best of the older brigade. Ghanaati a good winner of the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes. Rip Van Winkle went on to win the Queen Elizabeth from Zacinto (a top four year old in the making). Delegator failed to stay a strongly run mile in third. Prix du Moulin winner Aqlaam probably went off too fast in 4th.Sea The Stars not at his best to beat (effectively sole rival) Mastercraftsman in the International, a course record none the less. There was absolutely no doubt Mastercraftsman stayed the trip.
When they met again in the Irish Champion, John Oxx Star came out comfortably on top by a total of 5 lengths, with the Irish Derby winner half that distance between them. The others nowhere. Suppose you could think Fame And Glory was not as good at 10 furlongs as 12. But without Sea The Stars he would’ve been a fine winner of the Irish Champion. Seems right to attribute at least the same rating to this run as his Derby. Beat his stable companion (who was hampered slightly but made little difference) by the distance you’d expect. Mastercraftsman also being (at least on turf) one of the most consistent horses in training. Went on to win his Breeders Cup trial with a minimum of fuss.
Two poor runs of Fame And Glory can be put down to the ground. They are not machines, as the cliché tells us. Running on good or softer prior to the Arc. A relative test of speed (10f on a firm surface) at Newmarket against him as well as a long, hard season. Irish Derby form more than good enough to judge him on. Will probably be one of the stars in 2010 (with give). Though with another year on his back, may not have the speed he had at three.
Good luck to both Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman in the Breeders Cup.
Suppose there might be a possibility of Sea The Stars being reduced to 139 or 138 if those two disappoint in America. But think he deserves to remain a 140 “Great” anyway.
I don’t know how Timeform rate these horses now but this would be my ratings based on their scale:
Sea The Stars 140
The Eclipse I rate as a 137 performance. Based more around the defeat of Paco Boy by Rip Van Winkle than anything else. His Irish Champion 138 plus a couple of pounds for winning comfortably. Based on both Fame And Glory and Mastercraftsman.
Rip Van Winkle 136, Fame And Glory 134, Paco Boy 131, Youmzain 131, Cavalryman 131, Mastercraftsman 130, Conduit 130.Actually, I rate them all around 6 lbs higher than this; horses as a whole (imo) being capable of better form now, than in the 60’s etc. but have reduced them to Timeform’s present level.
Value Is EverythingSea The Stars ran on Yielding at Leopardstown.
Sea The Stars has also won on heavy and soft ground.
- Total Posts 17716
Some people might as well burn their form books. They don’t seem to know how to read them
.
The Eclipse I rate as a 137 performance. Based more around the defeat of Paco Boy by Rip Van Winkle than anything else.Ginger
I think the above says it all!
Judging a middle distance horse by his defeat of a miler, who in turn beat a 7f specialist, shows that your own understanding of the form book wouldn’t really qualify you to pontificate to others?
Sea The Stars ran on Yielding at Leopardstown.
Sea The Stars has also won on heavy and soft ground.
STS’s never won on heavy ground – his only effort on the going was on his debut where he finished fourth. He did run on yeilding in the Irsih Champion, but the ground was thought to be softer than reported. He hasn’t run on official ‘soft’ either, but he’d clearly handle it IMO.
christophe soumillon said that if zarkava stayed in training she would have beaten sts in the arc
Ginger, I have no idea how many Group 1 winners she beat.
What I’m saying is that since Zarkava beat them, 9 horses have now won 20 Group 1s between them. Fair enough 10 of them were Fillies’/Mares’ Group 1s, but given she only raced against colts once I’d say to have beaten 5 individual subsequent Group 1 winners vs colts/older horses is exceptional.
You’re right, perhaps my love for her is clouding my judgement, but I cannot agree that Sea The Stars had a harder season than her, and I don’t think I can agree that STS had a more troubled passage than her in the Arc.
Seems to me like Zarkava will always be the Flyingbolt of flat racing.
You’re right, perhaps my love for her is clouding my judgement,
but I cannot agree that Sea The Stars had a harder season than her
, and I don’t think I can agree that STS had a more troubled passage than her in the Arc.
Seems to me like Zarkava will always be the Flyingbolt of flat racing
.
I’m afraid you have to blame her connections for that, Z.
She never raced outside her own country and six of her seven starts were at Longchamp.
This season, Sea The Stars raced six times, at six different courses, in three countries, over three different trips.
To win the 2000 Guineas over the straight mile at Newmarket and then complete the classic double over twelve furlongs at perhaps the most demanding flat track on the planet is one helluva feat.
It’s a tough race that many horses never recover from, but four weeks later he came out and won the Eclipse.
Perhaps connections of Zarkava were worried about her ability to handle a long journey, given her temperament, but therein lies the different between Zarkava and Sea The Stars.
You’re right, perhaps my love for her is clouding my judgement, but I cannot agree that Sea The Stars had a harder season than her, and I don’t think I can agree that STS had a more troubled passage than her in the Arc.
Come off it Zark, Sea the stars had a far tougher season! Had Zarkava won the English 1000gns and Oaks,she would get far more credit than winning the poor french equivalent,had she won the Coral Eclipse against her elders,more brownie points!
Unfortunately her one and only truly recognisable and richly applauded victory was the Arc,the race she was born to win!I too suffer from Clouded judgement regarding Dancing Brave,i spent one evening last week watching his career on video and i am now 100% convinced he was a better horse than Sea the stars,just my opinion!Ginger
I think the above says it all!
Judging a middle distance horse by his defeat of a miler, who in turn beat a 7f specialist, shows that your own understanding of the form book wouldn’t really qualify you to pontificate to others?Rip Van Winkle was not simply a miler. His effort in the Eclipse was top class, he beat the King George winner hollow. And for a 7f specialist Paco Boy’s run in the Queen Anne was pretty good wasn’t it? That was the Moulin winner behind him after all.
Steal, I think both of the horses are pretty good for next year, though after Look Here’s performance last night (and in Ireland), I think Lady Bamford is being brave keeping her in training.
Her Irish Oaks performance was one of only two occasions this season when I was doing a performing seal impersonation – the other was MTB in Kentucky. Pure theatre.
Sariska possibly needed the run too, yesterday. Twice Over was a
very
lucky horse.
- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
I think the above says it all!
Judging a middle distance horse by his defeat of a miler, who in turn beat a 7f specialist, shows that your own understanding of the form book wouldn’t really qualify you to pontificate to others?Rip Van Winkle was not simply a miler. His effort in the Eclipse was top class, he beat the King George winner hollow. And for a 7f specialist Paco Boy’s run in the Queen Anne was pretty good wasn’t it? That was the Moulin winner behind him after all.
Euro
Aren’t you making the same mistake yourself; judging RVW to be ‘top class’ at 10f, based on his defeating a horse for whom even the Arc wasn’t far enough?
There are good reasons for thinking he’s very able at 10f (though Conduit wouldn’t be one of them), but there are also good reasons for surmising he’s even better at 1m though – not least of them being how his trainer has placed him since.- Total Posts 17716
Just because he’s perceived to be better at a mile, reet, doesn’t preclude him from being top class at ten furlongs.
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