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I’m all over Hurricane Fly once again for this, the more I look at the opposition, the less I fear the UK challenge. Neither MTOY or TNO have been out since Xmas. I gather Henderson is doing his usual scratching round for a race and bemoaning the weather for MTOY. When will these trainers realise they can hop over to Ireland if they need a run? **EDIT – MTOY now straight to Cheltenham**
As for TNO, is he going straight to Cheltenham?
The Fly has had the ultimate prep and everything has gone bang to plan again, apart from taking the knock that was made public and didnt stop him.
Our Connor despite coming in late has had two serious runs at the right time and is bound to be A1 on the day – the biggest danger to The Fly IMO.Until both Annie P and Un De Sceux are confirmed we cannot fully assess their chances respectively.
One thing is for sure, when you’ve got a Champion of the calibre of Hurricane Fly who is beaten once in twenty and has seen off allcomers countless times over, why look further?Positives
Finished in the first four at last season’s Cheltenham Festival
Contested the Fighting Fifth Hurdle or Kingwell Hurdle
Trained in Ireland or by Nicky Henderson
Horses beaten in the Christmas Hurdle and International Hurdle have a better record than the winnerNegatives
Beaten last time out TNO, OC
Not run during the same calendar year TNO
Five-year-olds (for win-only purposes) OC
The International Hurdle winner TNO25 of the last 30
winners won last time out.
There’s only one winner according to the stats.
COME ON THE HURRICANE
I’m a big TNO fan and despite the stats feel he’s the up and coming Champion. IMO would have beaten MTOY LTO in a race not run to suit him. Big player and can’t wait for the CH.
I note McCoy seems to be leaning towards MTOY over Jezki, citing Jezki needs to be ridden more positively. I mentioned this previously that I felt McCoy gave Jezki a strange ride last time (as he did Goodwood Mirage)and wonder why he didn’t ride Jezki more positively LTO if that’s what he felt he needed. Surely Jessica didn’t say lets ride him out the back and try to beat HF for speed
Think McCoy clutching at straws and don’t think MTOY or Jezki will beat HF. For me it’s between the Champion HF and the young pretender NTO. Bring it on!!Melodic Rendezvous seems to have a Big Bucks type flat spot. He’ll trade at huge odds in the race but none will come home better, I suspect.
Worth a fiver in running.
I Agree SC, if the ground is heavy that could be the bet of the meeting but I would bet place in running, if he hits flat spot will probably get 20/1
Sounds like UDS is being saved for next year, out to 35 on betfair, looked some tool yesterday. Absolutely tanking away after the last. Would be a bigger danger than Annie P IMO.
At more reasonable odds now, but looking unlikely he’ll run. Never thought it would be likely, hasn’t been trusted against a good field and I think if he ran it would hurt Hurricane Fly’s chances, which could see neither of them getting close.
Shame, as said, his change of gear on the weekend was so effortless is was almost spine tingling. Would love to see him tested, but will probably have to wait, a horse to watch none the less.
I’m not convinced by The New One or Our Conner just yet, I think my money will be going on Hurricane Fly.
With UDS now looking an Unlikely runner, it leaves us with:
Hurricane Fly
The New One
My Tent Or Yours
Our Connor
Jezki
Melodic Rendezvous
Ptit Zig
Grumeti
Thousand Stars
and possibly Annie Power.So who makes the running?
I was surprised JP didn’t put Captain Cee Bee in here the only conclusion I came to was that their going to use Jezki.
With Scenario A being it sparks some improvement or Scenario B he at least ensures a good clip for MTOY.
The only other one I could see wanting to make the running is Thousand Stars is that why he’s in their?
Interesting comments from Graham Cunningham regarding Annie Power in the Champion Hurdle:
"4: Another week gone and no nearer an Annie Power decision?
In theory, that’s exactly how things stand. But maybe we can piece together a few clues.
It’s tough to assess what the likely absence of Un De Sceaux says about Annie’s potential Festival target – perhaps it says nothing at all.
And some might say last week’s defeats for Doyly Carte and Zarkandar – both "Powered" at least once this winter – didn’t exactly frank Annie’s form.
But let’s factor in the phone book as well as the form book. A sensible Irish judge who isn’t known for gilding the lily is confident that Annie will run in the Champion rather than the World hurdle unless something derails Quevega’s Mares’ Hurdle bid.
…."Our Conor just tops my short list, but MTOY is very close behind. And I’m also nibbling Annie Power at big prices on the exchanges in the belief that there is much more chance of her running on day one of the Festival than many people suspect."
Source: http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news … -questions
Thoughts?
Can I just say to all those who believe TNO can the tables on MTOY that in the Christmas hurdle first of all; MTOY gave TNO 10 lengths at the start of the race! (Grant it MTOY needs to come off the pace but he won’t give him as much as 10 lengths in the CH) and secondly everyone forgets that MTOY lost just as much momentum jumping the second last as TNO lost jumping the last. So IMO I really can’t see TNO beating MTOY unless its very soft and still it will be close to call
Can I just say to all those who believe TNO can the tables on MTOY that in the Christmas hurdle first of all; MTOY gave TNO 10 lengths at the start of the race! (Grant it MTOY needs to come off the pace but he won’t give him as much as 10 lengths in the CH) and secondly everyone forgets that MTOY lost just as much momentum jumping the second last as TNO lost jumping the last. So IMO I really can’t see TNO beating MTOY unless its very soft and still it will be close to call
What race were you watching Jasolong?
Not this one surely?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNRVw0MyJnI
10 lengths?
What "momentum lost at the second last"?MTOY can pull hard, therefore AP needs to hold the horse up to settle him. Ignore the leader; the 4 lengths he gave TNO at the Christmas Hurdle start could easily be 1 or 2 in the Champion, but could also be 5, 6 or 7. The less ground AP "give"s at Cheltenham the more likely MTOY is to pull. Not that lengths lost at the start can easily be equated to lengths at the finish anyway.
MTOY barely touched the second last! Landed perfectly straight, lost no momentum, with AP perfectly happy.
TNO got too close to the last, as commentator says "crashed his way through", did not remain straight, had to find a leg, Sam lost his right iron (which you don’t see much of in this replay but was clear on the inner camera) and could not give his all… And had a lot less time to recover than any minute mistake MTOY might have made at the second last.
Value Is EverythingHe bundled through a lot on the way around though and jumped cleaner when the pace picked up which will be to his advantage at Cheltenham if they go quick as he will jump cleaner and settle easier.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
He bundled through a lot on the way around though and jumped cleaner when the pace picked up which will be to his advantage at Cheltenham if they go quick as he will jump cleaner and settle easier.
Come off it Nathan, take another look. MTOY touched the top of a few early, hardly "blundered through a lot". When a horse blunders he knocks the flight flat or at least skews on landing. He lost no ground from those mistakes if you can even call them "mistakes". I’ve heard others say TNO doesn’t jump well enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Now MTOY blunders a lot but "will jump cleaner" at Cheltenham.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think there is currently anything between MTOY, TNO or HC, with OC and J only just behind.
J probably doesn’t have the scope for improvement the others have, though market price indicates that.
OC could yet improve past the other three given a similar ride to the Triumph. ie Ridden prominently in truly run race (possibly unsuited by slowly run races this season when held up).
Of the Kempton duo it’s all about who makes the most progression. TNO has a lot more stamina than MTOY. So given a truly run race (as Stilvi says not certain to get it) should be more suited by the undulating, stiffer Cheltenham than a slowly run, flat Kempton. Though would not want to decide whether 3/1 TNO or 5/1 MTOY is the better bet. Lot depends on pace (front runners, if any) and ground. ie How much stamina is needed.
Hurricane Fly has won two Champion Hurdles, but instead of being up against one real top class horse each time, now up against at least three. So in my opinion four horses are going in to this Champion with form good enough to win an average renewal. You’d think one of the others might improve past him. However, it could be the Hurricane only just does enough and can pull out more if needed.
With bets on all three main second season horses immediately after they’d run at last year’s Festival, am glad I don’t need to make a decision at current prices.
Value Is EverythingYou’re debating 2nd/3rd spot at best chaps, The Hurricane is going to blow your theories out of the window
20 days and counting….
Maybe ‘blundered’ was the wrong word ginge but to me he looks awkward, fiddly over the hurdles but when the tempo rises he looks more fluent and jumps more natural. All imo of course and the faster they go the better for me with MTOY’s although the same could be said for all of them.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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