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By the way, I notice Hurricane Fly’s Topspeed speed rating is at 153, only the fourth highest in the field. I don’t understand this as I thought he has won his recent races in very good times.
Betfred are offering 11/10 on a Hurricane Fly promotion. Rush to get your 50p on or whatever they allow you.
Zaidpour has won a few uncompetitive races easily enough. I don’t see much improvement. Vastly flattered in beating Voler La Vadette. Ruby set a funereal gallop and kicked from the front. The mare pulled hard and nowhere near her best. Price isn’t exactly generous. Don’t be fooled by the 1’s against his name. There are quite a few others with better losing form.
Value Is EverythingMy 100% book:
Hurricane Fly Evens, Binocular 5/1, Rock On Ruby 9/1, Zarkander 9/1, Oscar’s Well 16/1, Overturn 25/1, 50/1 Brampour, Celestial Halo 80/1, Zaidpour 132/1, Kalaan no price (less than 0.05%).My 100% book betting without Hurricane Fly:
Binocular 9/4,Rock On Ruby 4/1
, Zarkander 4/1, Oscar’s Well 15/2, Overturn 14/1,
Brampour 20/1
, Zaidpour 33/1, Celestial Halo 40/1, Kalaan 2000/1.
Best price in either market now, is 5/1 (Skybet) Rock On Ruby in the betting without market. Brampour 33/1 (without) isn’t a bad each way price either.
Value Is EverythingThanks Ginger for your thoughts. I have been trying to work out Hf’s chances in a slightly different way.
Is he the best horse in the race in the sense that if they all run to the best of their ability HF would win? Very probably. I would say there is about a 10% chance that Zarkander is better (assuming more progression from his previous race) and maybe 5% that Bino is better (assuming he has recovered from problems that have dogged him in the past). Note Bino is probably better than Zarkander but Zarkander is less exposed and harder to gauge so is more likely to be better than Hf. None of the others look to be anywhere close to the Champ.
How likely is it that Hf will run to form? I reckon 75%. He is very consistent but there is always the chance of something going wrong in the race or a latent virus or some other excuse that we will hear about after the event.
So HF’s main chance is 0.85 x 0.75 = 0.64.
In addition he might have a small chance if he doesn’t run to form or if he isn’t in fact the best horse. e.g. if Hf bashes a hurdle but still wins because the opposition aren’t very good or if Zarkander is better but doesn’t perform on the day. I reckon about 5%.
So that makes Hf a 69% shot or about 1.45 decimal odds. So good value in my opinion. Of course others might use different numbers for the probabilities and it would be interesting to see if anyone can justify the 1.9 in the market using this method or another one.
Can’t get my head around that one Kasparov. Can’t see how you can assess one horse without looking at every other horse’s comparative chance.If Hurricane Fly runs to form he should (that’s "should") win.
Although Binocular does have a chance of doing so. On the face of it he’s inconsistent. But had a breathing op prior to Wincanton and that might have made the difference. Almost as impressive in winning his Champion as Hurricane Fly. Good record at the Festival too.
Hurricane Fly can sweat and I believe wears ear plugs (until the race). It is possible he could boil over. Although it’s becoming less likely as seems to have settled a bit better this term.
Zarkander has improvement in him, but on the Betfair Hurdle comes out roughly the same horse as Brampour, so needs to improve lots.
Stable companion Rock On Ruby would probably have won the Christmas Hurdle without a mistake at the last. Last year looked as though needed further and a test should bring about more improvement. I have Zark and Ruby on the same chance.
Difficult to see Oscars Well reversing places with the fav from last time, although probably still improvement to come.
Overturn is very interesting at a price. Improved this season and has his ground. Obvious front runner (unless Mullins Zaidpour or Celestial Halo take him on). Enthusiastic, genuine etc. Tried to give weight to Grandouet at Cheltenham and any thought of him not being as good here is not proven yet.
Brampour got well behind in the Betfair, despite a comparitively slow pace. Penultimate start at Ascot also slowly run. Needs a fast pace and if getting it could resume improvement.
Can’t really see Celestial Halo being good enough. Placed in a poor Champion Hurdle. Beaten a long way by Binocular.
Zaidpour flattered by winning Micky Mouse races and then set a slow pace to beat Voler.
Forget Kalann.How many "Binoculars" would it take to have the same chance as one Hurricane Fly? In my opinion around 3.
To my mind Binny has around a third the chance of Hurricane Fly. Zarkander and Rock On Ruby a fifth. Oscars Well around a tenth. Overturn around a twelth. Brampour a 25th, Celestial a 40th, Zaidpour a 66th.
Where as Rock and Zark have around three fifths the chance of Binny. Oscars around a third of Binny. Overturn just under a quarter, Brampour an 8th, etc etc.
The only way those figures work out to 100% is:
Hurricane Fly Evens (50%), Binocular 5/1 (16.5%), Rock On Ruby 9/1 (10%), Zarkander 9/1 (10%), Oscar’s Well 16/1 (5.75%), Overturn 25/1 (3.75%), Brampour 50/1 (2%), Celestial Halo 80/1 (1.25%), Zaidpour 132/1 (0.75%), Kalaan no price (less than 0.05%). All adding up to 100%.
Also checking percentages by adding two or more figures: eg Hurricane Fly and Binocular combined chance of winning is imo two thirds (50 + 16.5 = 66.5%) combined 12 chance. Rock, Zark and Oscars just over 25% (10 + 10 + 5.75 = 25.75) combined 3/1. Brampour + Celestial + Zaidpour (2 + 1.25 + 0.75 = 4%) slightly more than Overturn on his own (3.75%).
Value Is EverythingThanks for elaborating Ginger. I see you get different numbers as a result of giving Binocular a much better chance than I did. I just feel he is heavily exposed now and clearly not as good as HF and not a whole lot better than Rock on Ruby or a potentially progressive Zarkander. So his only chance will arise if HF doesn’t run to form, and even then he might not win. But the breathing op,jockey and a good record at Cheltenham are in his favour.
Binocular travelled and jumped like he was back to his best at Wincanton. For me he’s the only horse in the race capable of beating Hurricane Fly. Overturn & Celestial Halo should make a fast pace and I can see Binocular & HF both cruising coming down the hill towards the second last. After that it’s down to who find’s the most off the bridle. Should be an incredibly exciting race to watch.
1st – Binocular
2nd – Hurricane Fly
3rd – Rock On RubyHe’s taking on the big kids now but Zarkandar is a beautiful easy mover, loved the look of his Triumph win last year and hoping he’s the real thing.
Wow, HF taken off it’s feet, thought Overturn was going to pull it off, ROR absolutely flew. Ground possibly against HF?
Difficult to know what to make of that. It seemed a strong pace initially but then it slowed – did ROR steal a march on the others? The fact that Overturn came back for more (even allowing for the fact he’s as hard as nails) suggests they didn’t go too fast early.
I don’t think you could blame the ground for that. It was a very tame performance. You have to wonder if the win last year wasn’t up to a great deal and Cheltenham isn’t really his track – perhaps he just got away with it once in a poor year. You certainly wouldn’t be in a rush to back him if he returned next year.
Paul Nicholls in his stable tour at the start of the season, speaking of Rock On Ruby:
“My plan is to give him a run over hurdles then go for the Ascot hurdle which Silviniaco Conti won last year over two and a half miles. That’s a grade two and if he’s competitive at that level he’ll stay over hurdles, if not then it’ll be novice chasing.”
We obviously weren’t the only ones that didn’t know!
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