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10 of the last 10 winners of the Champion Hurdle has finished in the top 4 at the previous years festival – Hurricane Fly did not even run at last years festival.
Not only that he has never even ran at Cheltenham at any point in his career so we have no idea if he will act at the track as many top horses simply dont like it there.
Beef Or Salmon was a bad traveller, brilliant in Ireland but ran poor when in UK. We dont know that HUrricane Fly will handle the trip over, possible he could be another Beef or Salmon.
Will he handle the atmosphere and noise at CHeltenham or will he be freaked out, sweat up and run below form? We dont know as he has never experienced anything like it.
There is a good chance the ground will be riding gd-sft at the festival. Is Hurricane Fly effective on gd-sft? He never raced on that surface in Ireland and on the two occasions he ran on gd-sft in France he was unplaced, finishing last of 7 on the one occasion
HUrricane Fly is by Monteju – A Monteju horse has NEVER won at CHeltenham and it is percieved that they just dont stay up the hill. Would be foolish to take a short price on a Monteju horse at Cheltenham.
Binocular destroyed Solwhit by 18 lengths in the Champion Hurdle last year. Hurricane Fly has only been beating Solwhit by 2 or 3 lengths. Admittedly that isnt a solid line of form to take as Solwhit probably didnt handle the track in the CH but still you would have to be worried that Binocular will do to Hurricane Flyer the same as what he did to Solwhit.
How fit will Hurricane Flys jockey be on the big day? Would Ruby Walsh be returning from injury in March if the Festival wasnt on, or is he hurrying back sooner than he should? If its the latter then an unfit jockey is a big negative.
Also Hurricane Fly was not very fluent at his hurdles early in the Irish Champion Hurdle and he was also jumping right handed at them. Anything other than razor sharp straight hurdling in the CH and he will be out of the race.
So taking everything into account I would say Hurricane Fly is no danger to Binocular and would do well to place in the race, though it is a weak champion hurdle this year despite of what everyone else is saying in the media about it being a much stronger race so you never know he may nick 3rd or something but I would expect him to be unplaced.
Hurricane Fly handled two trips back to France perfectly fine after he won his maiden hurdle at Punchestown. He’s a more mature horse now so I don’t see why people are so worried about him travelling over to England?
As for not having run at the track, he’s handled the undulations of Punchestown ok in the past. He can be a buzzy horse but Mullins uses earplugs on him and they seem to do the trick. He didn’t boil over on the Friday of Punchestown and there was plenty of noise around the parade ring that day. The ground won’t be a problem – he’s won twice on good ground in April and May. He also proved he stays further when winning the Hattons Grace when he was expected to need the run.
The Montjeu thing amuses me. How big a sample are we using? Blue Bajan, Won In The Dark and Noble Prince are the only decent Montjeus to have run at the festival. Hardly in Hurricane Fly’s class are they? Even then, Won In The Dark was a good third in the Triumph Hurdle and Noble Prince was hardly disgraced in the County Hurdle last year. You could ask the same questions of Peddlers Cross’ pedigree – how many sons of Oscar and p2p winners have been quick enough to win a Champion Hurdle?
Hurricane Fly is a smashing e/w price at the moment. There may be one English horse better than him, possibly two. But I think its very unlikely there’s going to be three horses better than him (4 if betting with Stan James).
Michael Dickinson was asked "If you you train any one horse for Cheltenham" Binocular in the Champion Hurdle – he is the quickest horse I have seen over a hurdle in a long time. In 35 odd years of following jump racing I have to agree with him, I have never seen another horse. that gets across his hurdles as quickly as Binocular.
It would not surprise me if JP McManus is planning to have a monster bet on Binocular and had a quiet word in Nicky ear to go easy on the horses work (reflected in the last performance) to enable him to get a bigger price.
7/2 is a ridiculous price, should be a 6/4 chance. Won’t be a 7/2 shot on the day though, more like 9/4.
…, though it is a weak champion hurdle this year despite of what everyone else is saying in the media about it being a much stronger race….
I’ve had minimal bets in the race as think the market is about right, but agree with the “media” & reckon this years is a stronger renewal. Look at the first 6 last year:
1. Bino
2. Kyber Kim
3. Zaynar
4. Clestial Halo
5. Starluck
6. SolwhitWith the exception of Binocular, what price would the other 5 be this year?
Am about to have my first decent bet in the race…
Can’t understand why Stan James pushed Peddlers Cross out after hacking up today
6-1, 1/4 the odds first 4, looks a great ew bet
Can’t understand why Stan James pushed Peddlers Cross out after hacking up today
6-1, 1/4 the odds first 4, looks a great ew bet
Totally agree. Peddlers Cross was entitled to finish tired today after his first run for three months on tiring ground, going to be very exciting at Cheltenham.
I totally disagree with Zozo, how can you can call this year’s Champion Hurdle field weak? I could have seven or more bets and still not get the winner.
Whilst I’m sticking firmly in the Binocular camp, Hurricane Fly should be shorter imo. I know I’ve mentioned in a previous post that I couldnt back him because of failing to even get to the festival the last two years. If however he gets to this one, he along with Khyber Kim are the only two I can really see being able to turn Binny over.
Khyber Kims run last year very much reminded me of Binoculars run 2 years ago when AP allowed Punjabi and Celestial Halo get first run on him. KK travelled superbly last year and stayed on up the hill. I dont believe there was an awful lot between the first two (certainly not as much as the bookmakers have it). I cant see Paddy Brennan making the same mistake 2 years in a row and his mount will have been trained specifically for this years renewal as opposed to last year when it was all about finding out if he was good enough. It would be very foolish to read too much into what he’s done since. NTD will know exactly what he’s got and his price is way way too big.
If the Fly makes it and in the same form as we’ve seen in his last few races, he’s the only other horse I can see having a high enough cruising speed to really trouble Binocular, and we know he stays. The only thing I would say in terms of any chinks in the armour of HF is that his jumping might get him beat, not that I think his jumping is bad (infact I think it’s decent enough) but it’s fair to say Binoculars is far superior.Great to see a Champion Hurdle as competitive as this again. I was but a lad when I used to watch Cheltenham with my dad and the CH was always the race i liked to watch. Comedy of Errors, Lanzarote, Sea Pigeon, Monksfield, Night Nurse,great races ! I think it is the highlight of the meeting this year as we dont really know how good some of these young horses are.
I had an ante post on Peddlers at the start of the season. Seeing him at Kelso yesterday i’m not expecting to be collecting. The long range forecast looks pretty dry and on quickish ground i think it will come down to the finishing kicks of Binocular and Hurricane.
Looking forward to it.Of the 3 trials this w/e, I thought Dunguib’s was the most impressive. He quickened well in very heavy ground, jumped fluidly when the pace increased, and Luska Lad is a very decent yardstick.
Can’t see him being quite fluent enough for the CH, but at 12/14 to 1, I might reconsiderGreat to see a Champion Hurdle as competitive as this again. I was but a lad when I used to watch Cheltenham with my dad and the CH was always the race i liked to watch. Comedy of Errors, Lanzarote, Sea Pigeon, Monksfield, Night Nurse,great races ! I think it is the highlight of the meeting this year as we dont really know how good some of these young horses are.
I had an ante post on Peddlers at the start of the season. Seeing him at Kelso yesterday i’m not expecting to be collecting. The long range forecast looks pretty dry and on quickish ground i think it will come down to the finishing kicks of Binocular and Hurricane.
Looking forward to it.If you are expecting something similar to those really competitive events of the golden era I suspect you are in for a severe disappointment.
Henderson admitted using a banned substance recently.I wonder if he used it on Binocular last year,the turnaround in form was uncanny to say the very least.He wouldnt have the nerve to use it this year if indeed he did last year.That leaves Hurricane Fly as a clear and very easy winner of this years race,Oscar Whisky will chase the Fly home.
Jason Maguire to miss the ride on Peddlers Cross.
Wonder who will get the ride then? Maybe Timmy Murphy if Starluck isn’t running in this years’ renewal?
Who will ride Peddlers Cross now that Jason Maguire is suspended?
Graham Lee?
I know Davy Russell schooled the horse before he went to England and he doesn’t have a ride in the race now that Solwhit is going for the Stayers.
Id give the ride to Davy Russell, cant see anything beating Hurricane Fly though
1.Hurricane Fly
2.Menorah
3.Mille ChiefJason Maguire to miss the ride on Peddlers Cross.
Wonder who will get the ride then? quote]
They say Adrian Lane does a load of work on Peddlers Cross at home but please please do not give him the ride at Cheltenham as I think he’s a very average rider.
Silly question but who is Ruby Walsh going to ride? I doubt he’d be free but would be great if he was.
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