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Red Riot, just updated the CH Preview on my blog. Most impressed with OW and if he has a flawless round he could easily win – but jumping remains the big question.
Fully updated Champion Hurdle preview up now if you need something to get you off to sleep! http://wp.me/p1o7dN-b
Toughest of the "big" races for me – really difficult to side with one or other of Menorah or Peddlers Cross as both are having their first "senior" year – Both look real classy battlers but neither have raced top class in form rivals.
Hurricane fly is really difficult to call – could be all or nothing really as its hard to know what beating Solwhit every other weekend amounts to.
On the day with decent ground and if Binocular looks the part id be tempted to pile in but at this stage id be interested in who else likes Oscar Whiskey?? He’s really lightly raced and is a bit under the radar compared to Menorah and Peddlers.
Am thinking of a place bet and small win bet.I’ve also been very taken with Oscar Whiskys performances so far this year but a break-neck 2 mile pace might just find him out at this level imo. It’s fair enough to think he might have been a lot closer to Menorah last year if he hadn’t made a couple of mistakes at a crucial time (he might even have won) but that said, Menorah I feel has improved a hell of a lot since. Also worth noting both times Barry Geraghty has ridden the horse this year (most notably last time over 2 miles) his first thought has been he needs 3 miles. Now I know jockeys aren’t always the best judges but I cant imagine him saying it if he’d just jumped off Binocular or Hurricane Fly for example.
Don’t know wheter this will influence your betting guys but interesting nevertheless!!
RACE TRENDS: THE CHAMPION HURDLE
•23 of the last 27 winners won last time out
•19 of the last 21 winners won a race previously that season
•16 of the last 20 winners started in the first five of the betting
•16 of the last 22 winners had winning form at Cheltenham
•16 of the last 19 winners had previously been placed at the festival
•All 73 five year olds since 1985 were beaten, until 2008. Since then 5 of 9 placed were five year olds
•Only 3 winners older than eight since 1951
•The Irish have won 7 of the last 12 renewals
•No Northern winner for 29 years
•Nine novices have won the race, yet only three since 1956. Those three were all in the 1990’s (Royal Gait, Make A Stand and Alderbrook) and all had raced on the flat
•No horse has won the Supreme Novices the year before and gone on to win the Champion since 1971
•Hurricane Fly’s sire Montjeu has never sired a Cheltenham winner (44 runners)
Loser, Montjeu has actually had 26 runners which have run 44 times. Only 15 horses of his have run at the Festival: full article on my blog:
http://wp.me/1o7dNLoser, Montjeu has actually had 26 runners which have run 44 times. Only 15 horses of his have run at the Festival: full article on my blog:
http://wp.me/1o7dNThe Montjeu stat is obviously going to be broken at some point though? Why not now…?
All trends point towards a Binocular win . .
* I’ve been in the Binocular camp all season, and the Christmas Hurdle showed that if the horse is on song, then he is unbeatable
* Denman is guaranteed a place
* All trends point towards BinocularJJM,
I don’t agree with very much you say but I like your style.
You write like a very young man.- Total Posts 17716
Great to hear the stewards allowing Jason Maguire to ride in this race
JJM,
I don’t agree with very much you say but I like your style.
You write like a very young man.Ah, yes, those were the days. Sadly, I am not young enough to know everything.
JJM,
I don’t agree with very much you say but I like your style.
You write like a very young man.Ah, yes, those were the days. Sadly, I am not young enough to know everything.
That’s because I am a very young man sir
Great to hear the stewards allowing Jason Maguire to ride in this race
Couldnt agree more I have been waiting for peddlers cross to hack up all year!!
There’s an audio clip of Ruby taking about the Champion Hurdle from PP Preview night on my blog
This race is killing me like none I can remember.
I’ll be there so don’t want to make it a no-bet race but having discounted Hurricane Fly on the basis that we have no real UK based form to go on, relying on his regular beatings of the same animal and Peddlers Cross purely on gut feeling, I am finding it extremely difficult to decide between Binocular and Menorah.
I keep watching the re-run of Menorah’s Supreme win and can’t help being impressed by the fact that he managed to win despite running around up the hill and looking green. Similarly the way he quickened between horses LTO looked very good but what concerns me slightly is the way he appeared to be caught slightly flat footed just prior to that. Also, although he looked so good during the final stages of that race, one has to remember he was beating a couple of novices (albeit – at least one very good one) and Clerks Choice wasn’t that far away in fourth.
Binocular on the other hand looks better and better each time I watch a re-run of last years race. A narrow 2nd and 3rd followed by a decisive CH victory at consecutive festivals makes him very hard to pass over.
My only concern is the horses he has been up against in those races haven’t exactly been top, top class and while Nicky no doubt left a lot be worked on, as with last year, he was readily put in his place by Peddlers Cross earlier in the season.
IMO this is a much tougher race than any of those three previous festival races and will he be able to cope with an obvious improver such as Menorah ?
aaarrggghhh… It was so much easier in the days of Istabraq
Anybody who thinks this race is a given for any one horse must surely be criminally insane
Lee
P.S. I’ve also had a small £10 saver on Oscar Whiskey @ 14s with Joe Corals. He needs to step up on last years placed effort behind Menorah but he’s looked a monster this year and at 14/1 is IMO the best value currently on offer.
I am very puzzled about this race… i have been tossing and turning and swaying for weeks, nearly months on the winner of this race.
Hurricane Fly
, for me is a class act, i have watched his runs in Ireland, and to be honest hes only beat
Solwhit
who is definately not a 2m hurdler, his trainer
Charles Byrne
has just realised this and has decided to put him over 3m, stayers hurdle division for the festival.
When it comes to the CH, i think it is hard to say how he will perform as he has not raced atCheltenham
before, against UK opposition. Technically brilliant, but mentally, we will not know if he can do it until the day, very much in the dark over him.
Peddlers Cross
is undefeated over hurdles since he began his career. I think a big plus will be having
Jason Maguire
in the saddle. Without him i think the horse would have struggled, but beating
Binocular
this season already is a huge plus to the camp and he is a big danger in the race. Only thing we have not seen him do is bolt clear by a massive margin, if he does this turn of foot he should win, and maybe comfortably.
Binocular
– The defending champion, obviously very talented. He has come 2nd in the 08 Supreme, 3rd in the 09 CH, and winner last year. Each time in this race he has had his ground, good to soft… if the ground is heavy i see him struggling.
Last seasons CH he beat an out of formPunjabi
, a
Celestial Halo
who was already beaten by
Khyber Kim
in the
Xmas Hurdle
and
Zaynar
, who to be fair hadn’t had the best of seasons leading towards when being beaten at 1/14 at
Kelso
.
Khyber Kim
early season is poor as history says, he gets better towards the end of the season, and that is about the best he has beaten all season in this years
Xmas Hurdle
.
This year’s race will be too strong for him i fancy.Menorah
– Last years’s
Supreme
winner, un beaten this season is the main horse in this race … showed an unbelievable turn of foot in the
International hurdle,
destroying the field, although
Cue Card
is still a novice, he made him look very ordinary.
Hobbs’
yard is in great form and i cannot see past him, even if he has a bad run or a poor position 3 – 4 out, his jumping and acceleration will get him out of trouble. A clear peach of a ride he will hack up.
My Prediction:
1st
Menorah
2nd
Peddler’s Cross
3rd
Oscar Whisky
4th
Dunguib
- Total Posts 170
I will enjoy the race and will have an interest bet but nothing too major this time around. I don’t have a great betting record in it anyhow! (Can only think of Katchit that I have backed!).
Surely a race to enjoy rather then panicking about whether your horse is off the bridal too early.
Not sure who I will go for to be honest – as I like all the main contenders.
I will wait just before the off to see how the other races have panned out (Cue Card franks Menorah’s form, to see if FR runs well in the Arkle) and to get a feel for the markets. Its not like the market offers much value now anyway.
Have to agree with wilsonl, this race is one of the most frustrating i’ve ever tried to work out! I’m sticking with Binocular purely on the basis of watching last years Champion and Supremes over and over.
Khyber Kim’s niggling away in my mind knowing he’ll be specifically trained for it this time round. I think if anything is to beat Binocular, they’ll have to travel with him which imo rules out Peddlers Cross, Menorah and Oscar Whisky(only judged on his Supreme running btw). So with that said I guess I’m thinking of Hurricane fly, Khyber Kim and possibly Dunguib as the three to turn Binny over unless there’s to be a massive shock.
Dunguib is interesting. His jumping lto was much better than in any other previous race and if his jockey can have him up with the pace and not take the wide route the whole way round, I think he’ll be in with a great chance as long as he’s delivered as late as possible. (seemed to idle latest, not sure many horses get away with that in an uphill finish where momentum is everything
).
Binocular, well…. enough said.
Hurricane Fly imo is the one that makes this race so hard to weigh up. No matter what your fancy in this is, I think everyone would agree this is the horse that makes every bet a nervous one.1. Binocular
2. Dunguib
3. Khyber KimThat’s my idea of the first 3 home although it wouldnt really suprise me to see Hurricane Fly fill any one of those places so all in all still as confused as ever
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