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Reading between the lines I’d be fairly certain Ruby will be on Hurricane Fly.
That’s really rather harsh on Paul Townend. He’s done a fantastic job on him.
That’s the joys of being second jockey
Not sure I agree with you either, in my opinion Townend was very lucky not to get him beat at Punchestown last season.
Reading between the lines I’d be fairly certain Ruby will be on Hurricane Fly.
That’s really rather harsh on Paul Townend. He’s done a fantastic job on him.
Ruby is the stable jockey at Closutton. That’s the game.
Paul has only been on him because Ruby has had so many injuries over the past few years. The one time he was available to ride him he went to Cheltenham instead to ride Master Minded. Every other time the horse has ran, Ruby has been up.
Very difficult to come to a solid conclusion until the official race card has been drawn up.
A big or small field will effect the out come in a big way. I would be surprised if something can come from a long way back in a big field. Already going on the entries i predict that the final three will be positioned in the top quarter of the field 7 furlongs out. However if the field runs 11 or smaller an new prediction would logically have to be devised.
This is no easy race.
I took 9’s on Peddlars Cross some time ago on BF. I now see that Maquire looks like being banned from riding it unless he wins his appeal! Does he need to be on it for it to have a chance?
I also took 19’s (ew) on Mille Chief and started to regret it until Cel Halo won yesterday.
Any comments guys?
The Loser
I took 9’s on Peddlars Cross some time ago on BF. I now see that Maquire looks like being banned from riding it unless he wins his appeal! Does he need to be on it for it to have a chance?
I also took 19’s (ew) on Mille Chief and started to regret it until Cel Halo won yesterday.
Any comments guys?
The Loser
I’ve been in the Binocular camp all season, and the Christmas Hurdle showed that if the horse is on song, then he is unbeatable. I think the value outside of him could lay in Mille Chief and Khyber Kim each way at 16s and 25s.
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I took 9’s on Peddlars Cross some time ago on BF. I now see that Maquire looks like being banned from riding it unless he wins his appeal! Does he need to be on it for it to have a chance?
I also took 19’s (ew) on Mille Chief and started to regret it until Cel Halo won yesterday.
Any comments guys?
The Loser
I’ve been in the Binocular camp all season, and the Christmas Hurdle showed that if the horse is on song, then he is unbeatable.
I think the value outside of him could lay in Mille Chief and Khyber Kim each way at 16s and 25s.
His Christmas Hurdle victory showed no such thing.
And no, Loser, Jason Maguire isn’t integral to Peddlers Cross’s chances: Graham Lee or Timmy Murphy would be more than adequate replacements.
It’s a match IMO Hurricane v Menorah.
If the Cheltenham form theory holds water then we’re sorted
I took 9’s on Peddlars Cross some time ago on BF. I now see that Maquire looks like being banned from riding it unless he wins his appeal! Does he need to be on it for it to have a chance?
I also took 19’s (ew) on Mille Chief and started to regret it until Cel Halo won yesterday.
Any comments guys?
The Loser
I was at Wincanton last Saturday and Mille chief laboured to get past CH – in fact, if CH hadn’t hit the last he’d have won. Ok, CH won yday, but is there anyone on here who would back CH to win the Champion Hurdle in 2 weeks time? Can’t have Mille Chief in my reckoning – sorry!
It’s Binocular for me with Menorah v close – If NTD can get Khyber Kim back to decent form he could spring a surprise.
Toughest of the "big" races for me – really difficult to side with one or other of Menorah or Peddlers Cross as both are having their first "senior" year – Both look real classy battlers but neither have raced top class in form rivals.
Hurricane fly is really difficult to call – could be all or nothing really as its hard to know what beating Solwhit every other weekend amounts to.
On the day with decent ground and if Binocular looks the part id be tempted to pile in but at this stage id be interested in who else likes Oscar Whiskey?? He’s really lightly raced and is a bit under the radar compared to Menorah and Peddlers.
Am thinking of a place bet and small win bet.Imperial Call wrote
"The Montjeu thing amuses me. How big a sample are we using? Blue Bajan, Won In The Dark and Noble Prince are the only decent Montjeus to have run at the festival. Hardly in Hurricane Fly’s class are they? Even then, Won In The Dark was a good third in the Triumph Hurdle and Noble Prince was hardly disgraced in the County Hurdle last year."I did some research for a blog article: only 15 of Montjeu’s stock have run at the festival:
Pace Shot finished 4th of 17 to Detroit City in The Triumph, beaten under 10 lengths. He was 100/1 SP (500 on Betfair) so arguably ‘outran’ his price.
Blue Bajan was 6th of 22 to Cap Cee Bee in The Supreme, beaten under 16 lengths; his form comment: “kept on approaching last and stayed on run-in but no chance with leaders” His relevant SP and Betfair SP – 33/38
Won in The Dark was 3rd of 14 to Celestial Halo in The Triumph, beaten under 5 lengths: “stayed on to chase leading duo 2 out, kept on but no impression soon after” SPs 16/27
Mon Michel was 8th of 22 in The County; he started at just 6/1 and was beaten under 13 lengths
Shortest was Alexander Severus who was 5/2 fav when finishing 4th in the Fred Winter (never raced again): “led going well after 2 out, ridden last, headed soon after and soon no extra”
Green Mile was 5th of 22, beaten 8 lengths, in The Pertemps; SPs: 8/10.5
Gloucester‘s best performance from three runs at the Festival was 6th of 28 in The County. SPs 50/95
Noble Prince finished a head in front of Gloucester that day; SPs: 11/14
It seems to me that a number of them ‘outran their price’, though a couple did worse than expected based on the market.
Full artilce here: http://wp.me/p1o7dN-1f
It seems to me that a number of them ‘outran their price’, though a couple did worse than expected based on the market.
Full artilce here: http://wp.me/p1o7dN-1f
Firstly, I would say that I don’t necessarily agree with the Montjeus cant win at Cheltenham theory but I am not sure that the research you have done on your (excellent) blog, steeplechasing, doesn’t actually lend weight to the theory rather than disprove it.
It seems to me that detractors of Montjeu’s stock, Hurricane Fly in this case, are concerned that the briliant but temperamental Montjeu might get a group of horses who wouldn’t relish the hill at Cheltenham nor the battle that so often ensues at this course both at the Festival and indeed all the other highly competitive meetings.
The fact Montjeu has no winners to date doesn’t prove the theory but it doesn’t dismiss it either. If additionally, it is shown that he has had a number of unfancied horses without the form to win who have nevertheless ran into a place…could it be suggested that his runners have inherent class to place even when when they have insufficient form to compete? What i am saying, in a long winded way, is that it is theact of winning
for Montjeus that is questioned not their class or ability to outrun their price.
I have backed Hurricane Fly myself as I don’t see a jot of evidence that he lacks bottle or stamina (which is what the Montjeu theory is implicitly suggesting) and hope that he can nail it on the 15th (or if not him then Peddlers).
Excellent blog…good luck.Shabby,
Many thanks for the kind comments.
Your point is a fair one on the face of it. I like to research and write, but I am no statistician, though I doubt that a sample of 15 horses who’ve run at The Festival would be considered anything like a sound sample.
Consider the mumber of other runners who have failed up that hill in the past, irrespective of breeding. I think this Montjeu theory is just something someone has latched on to because of Hurricane Fly’s high profile.
Anyway, we don’t have long to wait to find out
All the best
Joe
Imperial Call wrote
"The Montjeu thing amuses me. How big a sample are we using? Blue Bajan, Won In The Dark and Noble Prince are the only decent Montjeus to have run at the festival. Hardly in Hurricane Fly’s class are they? Even then, Won In The Dark was a good third in the Triumph Hurdle and Noble Prince was hardly disgraced in the County Hurdle last year."I did some research for a blog article: only 15 of Montjeu’s stock have run at the festival:
Pace Shot finished 4th of 17 to Detroit City in The Triumph, beaten under 10 lengths. He was 100/1 SP (500 on Betfair) so arguably ‘outran’ his price.
Blue Bajan was 6th of 22 to Cap Cee Bee in The Supreme, beaten under 16 lengths; his form comment: “kept on approaching last and stayed on run-in but no chance with leaders” His relevant SP and Betfair SP – 33/38
Won in The Dark was 3rd of 14 to Celestial Halo in The Triumph, beaten under 5 lengths: “stayed on to chase leading duo 2 out, kept on but no impression soon after” SPs 16/27
Mon Michel was 8th of 22 in The County; he started at just 6/1 and was beaten under 13 lengths
Shortest was Alexander Severus who was 5/2 fav when finishing 4th in the Fred Winter (never raced again): “led going well after 2 out, ridden last, headed soon after and soon no extra”
Green Mile was 5th of 22, beaten 8 lengths, in The Pertemps; SPs: 8/10.5
Gloucester‘s best performance from three runs at the Festival was 6th of 28 in The County. SPs 50/95
Noble Prince finished a head in front of Gloucester that day; SPs: 11/14
It seems to me that a number of them ‘outran their price’, though a couple did worse than expected based on the market.
Full artilce here: http://wp.me/p1o7dN-1f
Great work.
Thanks for that. Much appreciated.
Noble Prince finished a head in front of Gloucester that day; SPs: 11/14
We fancied him enormously for the Coral Cup. I still don’t know what posessed them to run him in the County Hurdle.
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