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Moscow Mannon’s been confirmed for the Festival today. Only 3 firms going 16s so get on sooner rather than later if you like him.
Fickle Fortune also won very impressively earlier and Noel Meade had this to say about the 4yo filly;
"She’s very very very good & I mean very very very good. She hasn’t done that much work but she is very special"
Cheers Zark,
What’s your source for this?
Glad to hear it as he looked very good at Gowran. 16s is nice, but i’m sure there’s a few to creep out of the woodwork yet, although Mullins unusually appears to have shown his hand with Champagne Fever as his number one.Wow, Group entries!? Jesus.
That’s what I thought, he’s not a trainer who over rates his horses. I just wish I could remember which races they were, I think one may have been The Ballyroan Stakes
Moscow Mannon’s been confirmed for the Festival today. Only 3 firms going 16s so get on sooner rather than later if you like him.
Fickle Fortune also won very impressively earlier and Noel Meade had this to say about the 4yo filly;
"She’s very very very good & I mean very very very good. She hasn’t done that much work but she is very special"
Cheers Zark,
What’s your source for this?
Glad to hear it as he looked very good at Gowran. 16s is nice, but i’m sure there’s a few to creep out of the woodwork yet, although Mullins unusually appears to have shown his hand with Champagne Fever as his number one.Fickle Fortune also won very impressively earlier and Noel Meade had this to say about the 4yo filly;
“She has serious speed, stays and goes on any ground. She will do her bumper stint here but she might go for the mares bumper at Aintree.”
Looks like Aintree for this one then.
THE NEW ONE is rated as a "serious horse" by NTD, won and travelled well in the NYD Bumper at Cheltenham, 16/1 looks a little on the big side as has invaluable C&D form.
Never even gone close in this race. it is a total mine field.
I am on Champagne fever at 20s but i don’t like his head carriage. I do think his second on debut was the finest NHF of the season though so i am hopeful. I shant increase my interest in this race.
I just find the form tough to judge and obviously we have little to go on.
Moscow Mannon does look tough though. Steadily improving so will be watchiung him with interest.
I feel the likelihood of Gevrey Chambertin showing up now is slim, which is such a true shame. He looks a horse full of class and although he clearly has many better prizes ahead of him, a nice visit to Cheltenham to get him used to the place and the time of year could work a treat.
I’ve heard whispers that Pipey and Tom Scu say he’s potentially better than Grands Crus
Well if you rate Grands Crus then he could be very good.
If you don’t (like me), meh.
Well if you rate Grands Crus then he could be very good.
If you don’t (like me), meh.
What? You may not rate Grand Crus a likely winner at the Festival this year (i have my doubts), but he is clearly a high class horse with a very good engine.
So IF he is on that type of level, it means he’s a very good horse.
Or we could continue with the hyperbole i guess …
Was just looking for something to do for 30 minutes so thought I’d take a look at the Bumper. I’ve got 3pts on Moscow Mannon at 16s but I went through the last 8 or so winners just to see what kind of ratings they’d posted beforehand.
The race has changed in the last 8 years or so. That’s why Mullins is getting fewer winners in the race and running more horses. Everybody wants to win the Bumper and it’s become a very competitive race.
I’ll look at 2002 onwards and only at the winners because I just can’t be bothered to look at 150 odd horses that didn’t win in the Bumper and collate the data. I have better things to do and it’s just a bit of fun.
Cheltenian RPR118, 2 starts, 70 topspeed rating
Cue Card 110, 1, N/A
Dunguib 146, 3, 86
Cousin Vinny 126, 1, N/A
Cork All Star 136, 3, 112
Hairy Molly 131, 4, 89There aren’t any topspeed ratings for the 7 winners beforehand.
Worth remembering that Cue Card was a 4yo at the time and received a 7lbs allowance. I don’t know why he and Cousin Vinny weren’t allotted topspeed ratings for their only runs at the time.
But we have data for 4 winners, and their topspeed ratings all exceed 69. Of the 12 horses to finish 2nd or 3rd in these 6 Bumpers, 9 of them also had ratings that exceeded 69, with the 2nd and 3rd to Cork All Star posting 22 & 57 and the 2nd to Hairy Molly posting 51. 70 looks a decent cut-off point to me.
It looks especially good when you look at some of the also-rans who went off at 12/1 or under.
116, 38, 42, 36, 89, 108
60, 36, 124, 45, 42
36, 96, N/A, 61
63, 76, 34
50, 117, 111
22, 55, 66, 88, 113So of those 26, 15 posted figures below 70 and 1 didn’t post a figure. That’s 60% of also-rans who posted a figure below 70 and 81% of placed horses who posted a figure above 69. So I’m happy with 70 as my cut-off point.
I’ve looked at the horses quoted by the majority of bookmakers on oddschecker and these horses are too slow based on topspeed figures;
Venture Capital, 45
Gevrey Chambertin, 11
New Years Eve, 35
Silver Concorde, 26I’m also looking for a decent RPR, something 117+ roughly (or a 4yo with a 110+);
Circular Quay, RPR105
New Years Eve, 104
The Paparrazi Kid, 112
Shutthefrontdoor, 113The New One (RPR113) and Clondaw Warrior (RPR120) have taken their time getting to a decent enough RPR – they’ve both had 2 starts. I know Cheltenian reached 118 in 2 starts but he’s an awful Bumper winner and almost nothing that finished behind him has won since.
So we’re left with Moscow Mannon, Champagne Fever, Population, Sword Of Honour, The Westener Boy and Mozoltov.
The Westener Boy’s only put in a topspeed rating of 80 and with so many other horses all posting topspeed ratings of 100+ (only once in the past 6 years have we had more than 1 fancied horse running with a triple-figure topseed rating), I’m looking for something quicker. Also want to get rid of Mozoltov who finished 2nd the other day. Champion Bumper winners always win their prep race.
Moscow Mannon’s put up a serious RPR (136) and has posted by far the biggest topspeed figure (127) we’ve seen in the last 6 runnings (assuming one of the 14/1+ also-rans didn’t post one higher). Only Dunguib had a larger RPR. Cork All Star was also rated 136.
And if you look at runners in the past 6 years who’d posted a RPR of 131+, we’ve got Dunguib, Cork All Star & Hairy Molly who all won, then Corskeagh Royale (2nd), Zaarito (3rd), Apt Approach (also-ran) and Aranleigh (3rd), and neither Apt Approach nor Aranleigh had posted a topspeed figure above 69. So that’s 11123 for horses with a RPR of 131+ whilst posting a topspeed figure of 70+.
The sire’s (Moscow Society) also had great success at Cheltenham, with Snowy Morning finishing 2nd in the RSA, Moscow Flyer winning a couple of tin-pot races and ForPadyDePlasterer winning the Arkle & 2nd in a Queen Mum amongst others.
So to me, Moscow Mannon looks an each-way banker.
We’ve also got Champagne Fever who’s posted a RPR of 131+ (133). He’s also posted a hot topspeed figure (108), albeit significantly less than MM. But I don’t like his attitude or his breeding. He’s only priced the way he is because he’s trained by Mullins as well.
Population has ALSO posted a RPR of 131+ (131) and a decent top speed figure (94). John Ferguson apparently played down the chance of him being a good Bumper horse. He’s also flat-bred (Noverre), and flat-bred horses have had surprisingly little success in the Champion Bumper. Only 1 of the last 6 winners.
And we have Sword of Honour, a son of Montjeu who posted a big RPR (123) on his debut and also has a very hot topspeed figure (112).
Good post that.
I remember posting about Dunguib’s RPR before but that was some horse. Backed it well but should have just waded in. Nothing in that race came close as regards form and figures.
Think Moscow Mannon is similar, and although the trainer has said he needs soft ground, i think he’s similar to Dunguib in that Good spring ground will seem him perform even better. Moscow Society’s offspring invariably handle good ground, and the mare was by Mind Games, who liked it quick.
Oh my oh my! I liked that Pique Sous a lot.
After pulling like an express train for the first mile I thought no way can this horse possible last home.
Many must have been thinking the same thing as he drifted momentarily to twice his Betfair SP before turning for home.
Blow me! he came of the bridle for about 5 seconds and I thought "He’s done" then suddenly he’s back on the bridle and has another crack at pulling Patrick Mullins’s arms out there sockets before PM said stuff this and took off like a rocket leaving everything dead in a matter of strides.
Maybe not a great race but this is one very good horse and at 12/1 I am having a dabble in the hope WM send him to Cheltenham
Pique Sous has been given a 123RPR. Pretty good.
He’s also been given a topspeed rating of 31. Yuk.
Isn’t he french bred too which is a bad sign in the bumper.
I like champagne fever. I wouldn’t rule out population on just his flat pedigree. What is the ratio of flat bred to jumps bred running in the race?
Great post Zark. it is a race i don’t have any success in.
I like CF because he ran well on debut against experienced rivals in what looks a hot bumper. Then cam out and murdered a standard field. Always like a strong rpr in weak fields still and progression.
Don’t know much about sword of honour but presumably he has been held back for this.
John Ferguson has started season well. Always lean to the irish for the race but he is worth a look in.
Nice shortlist to work with though!!!!!
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