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NOBLE DYNASTY 3/1
Won at Newmarket a lot already can run well fresh so absence no issue. Clear form pick here and Godolphin do well at this meeting
totally agree Darren just a touch worried if there is more of that wet stuff around, there’s bits a bobs so I will wait till Good luck
Backed Witness Stand EW 4 places 13/2 365, in decent nick since cheek pieces put on. Improving three year old against his elders
Would love to see Quinault win this what a horse he has been.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
No clue what is going to happen. Quinault, Royal Scotsman, Witness Stand and, to some extent, Noble Dynasty, like to get on with it. And you have closers in with a shout.
Not surprised Noble Dynasty has drifted, Mike. Timeform top rated. But as you suggest he seems to like racing prominently these days. Seem to remember he drifted badly in a race earlier in the season where there were loads of front / prominent runners and eventually made a non-runner. I make 7 of the 11 runners front runners or at least like to race on the pace to run to their very best. Wind is forecast to be behind the runners on the back straight so a bit to one side on the straight course. And not that strong. (Shouldn’t help the prominent runners too much).So although occasionally jockeys / connections see the pre-race pace map and change tactics. Changing tactics on a habitual prominent racer means it is less likely to run to form too. This race is likely to be strongly run or even overly strongly run. A good chance it will favour those held up / dropped out.
Of the four hold up horses:
One seems out of form but tends to run well at Newmarket – Jumby. However even on his Hungerford form should not be good enough. Be disappointing if good enough to actually win this, even if placed.
Ditto Vetiver probably not good enough tom win, although is in form.
Shouldvebeenaring finished only just ahead of Vetiver when third and fourth to Kinross last time out in the Park Stakes. However Shouldvebeenaring does have better form to his name and much of it in the Autumn. If returning to his best has a real chance. LLikely to be suited by the drying ground and the booking of Ryan Moore is eyecatching. If anyone gets the pace right it should be him and the stable seem to be coming back to form in recent days.
Best bet though is imo Great Generation. Won the Sceptre really well last time out, a probable career best, coming from last to first. Stable in good form too. If I had only one bet in the race it would be her each way… But you know me.
I have taken a chance on a couple of the front / prominent racers just in case; the Prix Du Pin one-two. Winner Topgear was always on the pace there and maybe got first run. That said, his form is very consistent, on a soft and firmer surface… And although usually races prominently, has run well in defeat when racing in mid-div in better races…
And the Prix Du Pin second Ten Bob Tony. Has raced prominently or led in previous races, but didn’t get a good break and hemmed in on the rails tracking the pace… Which imo means he’s less likely to be inconvenienced than many of the front runners in this field if unable to race on the front end. Ten Bob Tony won well at Newmarket earlier in the season and the stable are in cracking form.
Have backed: Great Generation at an average price of 12.77, Shouldvebeenaring 12.11, Topgear 7.97 and Ten Bob Tony 11.89.
Value Is EverythingGiven the number of front / prominent runners it would not be a surprise if the field splits.
Value Is Everything
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