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That’s an interesting pick..
I must say, looking at that Kempton race there are some very big yards and jockeys involved all with reasonable form.
If Armure manages to win that tomorrow i’d agree the price for the Cesarewitch would shorten almost as quick as Yadree’s Cambridgeshire price did yesterday when he beat a strong field.
I keep looking at Bollin Felix and Souffleur for this and am edging towards Souffleur at the moment. Need to see a lot more though before having a bet on anyone for this
Armure has precious little chance of getting in the Ces to my eye; the maximum penalty she can pick up is 7lb which would take her weight in the long handicap up to 7st5lb. It’s unlikely that she would make the cut at that weight unless there were a lot of defectors among the top weights.
Marble, if you happen to be in Newmarket for the Cambridgeshire meeting remind me to buy you a well deserved pint.
Took the 8/1 on offer last night for Amure to win today based on your blurb alone
Bulwark – high in the weights but at a fast pace on testing ground over this sort of trip, he’s got to be in the reckoning. He won the Chester Cup over the same trip and williams has proved with him and Baddam this season that he can get them ready for these staying handicaps.
Also like Missoula if the pace is more sedate
"This looked a decent staying handicap, but nothing could live with ASKAR TAU, who completed a five-timer in fine style. A 10lb rise for his latest success at the Newmarket July course put him on a mark 35lb higher than when beginning his winning run,but he keeps improving and again had plenty in hand. This was his first run beyond an extended 1m6f, but he’s a thorough stayer and Martin Dwyer was not afraid to commit him early. Despite looking a touch ungainly as usual, and jinking ever so slightly acouple of times when clear, he ran on powerfully for pressure before being eased near the line. He is now around a 5-1 chance for the Cesarewitch, for which he has picked up a 4lb penalty, and will take some beating if turning up in this form."
This is the Racing Post analysis for his last win at Great Leighs.
He is a progressive staying 3-y-o but his price is a bit skinny for such a competitive race but Tregoning has hopes that he will develop into a Cup horse.
My memory is failing me these days, what sort of record do 3-y-os have in the Cesarewitch?
Colin
Like most of the valuable staying handicaps these days, 3-y-o’s struggle to get into them. Sunley Peace last year was the only one to get a run. Askar Tau is obviously a big improver and will get into the race on a lenient mark under a penalty for Great Leighs rather than being reassessed. I do think it was a weak race at Great Leighs though. Always Bold may have come out of it but I thought it was a dreadful ride on Desert Sea, getting caught behind fading rivals as Askar Tau asserted.
My mole tells me Arc Bleu is likely to be the Martin representative- but I’m a bit worried about quick ground for him- with cut he must be a player. Three year olds don’t have a good record in this marathon so the fav is opposable. I really like Liberate for this- he stays forever, is ground-adaptable (best on g/s or better) and must still be well handicapped off a mark 50lbs+ lower than his hurdles one- 16/1 looks big to me.
Gee Dee Nen got into all sorts of trouble in last year race, but for me he looked as weak as a kitten back then. Despite that I particualry liked the way he fought back to win at Mussleburgh last season and marked him down as one to follow.
I know 3 year olds have a good record so immaturity can hardly be regarded as an excuse but I just feel with another year behind him he is a better horse this season.
I probably won’t have a bet but if I do at around 10/1 he would be a good sporting EW bet to win this.
From what i hear Carv Top the Charts could be the fancy from that yard. Leg Spinner only in to keep the weights for the other two, TTC on 8-3 and if decent ground should go well
Bulwark – high in the weights but at a fast pace on testing ground over this sort of trip, he’s got to be in the reckoning. He won the Chester Cup over the same trip and williams has proved with him and Baddam this season that he can get them ready for these staying handicaps.
Also like Missoula if the pace is more sedate
Fast Pace = Bulwark 50-1 (an e/w must bet) and Askar Tau @5-1.
Slow Pace = Missoula 20-1. and Mudawin @ 100s
In the hope of a fast pace I think a little reverse forecast on bulwark and askar tau could be in order
Souffleur EW at 33s would be my selection in the race.
Beaten some decent horses and come close to others, Elusive Dream and Tazbar to name a few. Ground shouldn’t be a problem, distance shouldn’t be a problem, and if Hayley Turner can give him a good ride thoroughout, then he should be in with a chance.
33s tissue price this morning.
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