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One of my favourite flat races (naturally as i’m a jumps man). Unusually it’s a race i have a good betting history in too.
First on my shortlist is Reshoun, whom my eye is always drawn to when the mud is flying which it surely will be come the weekend. May be too high in the weights now, especially considering there have been next to no winners carrying over 9 stone in recent years. 25/1
Smart Champion is next up. Thorough stayer who will appreciate the fast face and emphasis on stamina. Unproven on soft ground is the obvious negative. 20/1
Finally Jukebox Jive, a possible Irish raider for Gavin Cromwell. Good form last run on the flat, beating Buildmeupbuttercup over 2 miles in heavy ground. Finished around 3 lengths ahead of Dalton Highway that day who re-opposes but is 1lb worse off than when beaten that day. Gavin Cromwell has a few still entered at this stage so not a sure runner and lack of a recent run isn’t ideal either. 33/1
One i feel could be interesting, and possibly even attract some market support is Whirling Dervish. Cromwell bought him from Harrington for 120k. He’s been running in hurdles over probably inadequate trips. He’s ran well, won his maiden and caught the eye last time out when 12-/1 into 7-1 for a decent handicap hurdle over 2miles, he looked again like a step up in distance was needed.
That’s no surprise as this guy stayed on the flat. Jessica pointed out how relaxed he is as a horse. That gives me hope a step up in trip again will suit him. It’s worth considering he has beaten Twilight Payment over 1m6, getting weight but we now know TP is a decent stayer.
I think this trip could unlock further potential and he’s down to 94. There’s showered forecast and it’s soft now, i’d say soft or g/s on the day which will be fine for him. Had probably hoped for a more eye-catching jockey booking if i’m honest but at 33s he’s worth a dabble.I had looked at Eagle Rock, but i thought Harry Bentley would choose him, and i’m unsure about the big step up in trip. Lynnwood Gold, Great White Shark (minor concern that she didn’t fair well here last year) and Dalton Highway interest me.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Had a look at this race today. Some will have more weight than they had before in the race. Some may not run coz of the ground. 3 year old winners its hard. Jump trainers tend to do quite well in it. One or two turning blue on oddschecker already and going crazy short. My pin has dropped on Leoncavallo ew and got some 12-1. Been laid out for the race and 60 lb difference between flat mark and hurdles mark suggests he is well in.
Have backed two in this so far!!
GREAT WHITE SHARK at 16/1 and WHIRLING DERVISH at 33/1 which have both already been mentioned on here. I am sure I will back more come the day but until final decs those two will do for me
Early Jockey bookings would suggest that Whirling Dervish is Gavin Cromwell’s intended runner with Kieran O’Neill booked for the ride. That’s enough for me to place my first bet. Will be between Reshoun and Smart Champion for the second and final punt. Will wait and see how the ground is looking before choosing between the two on Thursday/Friday.
Took the 16’s for Great White Shark once declared, as that was always the plan, and even more so once she was yards sole representative.
It was also the plan to back Rock Eagle, but as Jack mentions, it’s a concern that Bentley deserts him. I’ll still bet him, but I’ll take the chance that I can get bigger on the day.
I diverted that cash to an old favourite in Dalton Highway. I’m not concerned about the last couple of runs, and though just win only for now, I think he’s a massive EW player, and I’ll have a fair top up to max places at the weekend.
Great White Shark 16’s
Dalton Highway 20’sTop weight, Verdana Blue, taken out of this with a foot abscess. Don’t think she’d have liked the ground anyway or carrying top weight.
Dougie Costello now jocked up to ride Jukebox Jive so i’ve cashed out on Whirling Dervish in favour of JJ. We all know that happens now don’t we…
Still planning Rock Eagle as third selection now, but Cleonte is fair catching the eye at 25’s as well.
What sort of draw normally wins this?
My selection not so sleepy has been put in stall 4
Is that good or bad?
Info on the draw here if it helps.
https://bettingmarket.com/cesaredraw.html
Hard to come to a definitive conclusion if your fancy is drawn high, particularly when its soft ground.
FF this might help.
My figures give this race as pretty close with most of the field within 10lbs. However the Irish lines of form through Princess Zoe gives three a big advantage over the rest.
Mutadaffeq 136 (40/1)
Great White Shark 130 (8/1)
Lynwood Gold 129 (20/1)Best of the rest are Rajinsky 114, Mr chua 113, Couer De Lion 113 and Rare Eagle 113
I’ll trust the Irish form as the strongest, take the figures at face value and go top 3 against the field. Nice spread of prices as well.
Similar thinking to Rob here in a way.
Takarengo 6 places EW @ 50’s
Bit of an eyecatcher last time and the trainer nearly hit the target last year with Party Playboy. Got to be a bit of a doubt about the trip, but you could make a case he could get quite close to the the other Mullins horse if he does.
Takarengo looks to have a great ew opportunity here. Kendicate, those 8 places make a big difference, and I’ve taken 40/1.
Lynwood Gold is a consistent horse, although I have went win only with him at 18/1.
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