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No joy taking on Cafe Society who won with a bit in hand.
A couple of notebook entries to make.
Ballinderry Boy is not the biggest of animals and I was a bit concerned about that when checking the field before the race. He raced prominently enough but lacked the gears when the race started in earnest. Not one for me to follow.
Cafe Society has a bit of an awkward head carriage, a bit high and a bit wayward for me. I’d be wary of backing him in better company than tonight as he might be a horse that needs everything to drop right for him.
+12.50 pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The 3.30 at Nottingham sees a typical gamble on a lightly raced Michael Stoute runner. Heho has had three runs, steadily progressing and enters a handicap for the first time. 7/4 is skinny though and there are winners in the field today.
Thurayaat has won a couple of races and is 2nd fav but the last win could hardly be working out worse with 9 runs resulting in 9 unplaced efforts. Just a slight doubt about Roger Varian for me makes it worth leaving this one alone.
A rank outside chance is taken on the Godolphin runner Kind Invitation, who won first time up but then disappointed next time. The ground was soft that day though and first time on decent turf might help today.
Fun punt 1pt Kind Invitation 3.30 Nottingham 18/1 Stan James
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not a bad run in third from Kind Invitation at 18/1. Started 12/1 and at least saw off the 6/4F Heho who never gave her supporters a chance. More lemming punters taken to the slaughterhouse by the bookies there.
+11.5pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Irish Guineas this weekend and Kingman is odds-on for the 2000. I’ll leave that race for watching only.
The fillies version is much more competitive and I have to take on one of the early favourites My Titania, who had a setback and has been taken back slowly. The trainer says she won’t run if it is soft, so another worry about taking the 4/1 she is now. She met defeat on her debut last year and she is entitled to need the run and against fit fillies I can’t have her at the odds.
Newmarket runner-up Lightning Thunder is narrow second favourite for the race in some lists but as low as 5/2 fav in a place. She probably should be favourite, bringing the best looking form to the race having run Miss France close at Newmarket. The slight worry is that her actual winning form doesn’t amount to much and it’s enough to put me off.
I picked out Dermot Weld’s Tested as a filly to keep an eye on and she has done nothing wrong. She steps up a bit here but is 12/1 and could be tempting. The stable runs another in the form of Vote Often though, and that tempers confidence, particularly as Pat Smullen hasn’t picked one yet, with James Doyle lined up to take the other ride.
A lot of money went on Rizeena in the run-up to the 1000G at Newmarket but she was usurped as favourite in what turned out to be a suicide rush for Tapestry, who was pitiful on the day. Clive Brittain has had a very quiet time of it but believes Rizeena just doesn’t run well a Newmarket. I am giving her one more chance to prove she has trained on, as I believe she would start shorter than 5/1 if you ignore the Newmarket run. She was a class act last year and a few of Sunday’s field are still pretenders. Rizeena is a group 1 winner, whereas Lightning Thunder has only a Class 2 conditions stakes race in her win column and she did get beaten when 8/11f in the Rockfel.
At twice the odds in some places I’ll take Rizeena and hope the Irish air brings out the best in her.
Irish 1000 Guineas Rizeena 5pts win 5/1 (Bet Fred and others)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The 7.20 at Kempton sees a maiden holding the favourite’s spot in a handicap.
James Fanshawe’s Magic Hurricane has run only 4 times and has bits of form that put him right in contention here. The stable are usually very patient with their horses and it can be expected that this fellow might well reverse placings with Luca Cumani’s Jazz Master, who was second behind Arab Spring in the race where Magic Hurricane was 5th.
Looking at the odds, we have Magic Hurricane as low as 9/4 fav with Jazz Master as low as 3/1. Magic Hurricane makes little appeal as a maiden at those odds, while Jazz Master has had 13 runs with just a couple of all weather wins to show for his efforts.
Right at the bottom of the weights is a Michael Stoute horse Economy, who has had just the two runs. He scrambled home at 1/4 last time and that form probably isn’t worth a hill of beans. Had he been one of those Stoute horses going off well backed in a handicap I would probably be against him but he is 11/2 here and I don’t think it is that great a race really. If he improves a fair bit, and it’s possible he will, he should be competitive off 83. It might be worth noting that today’s first two ran behind Arab Spring last time and that horse is trained by Stoutie, so he should have an idea where he stands with those horses today.
The question is will be be talking a false Economy tonight or will we be hailing Economy Class?
I’ll take a 2pt bet it’s the latter.
7.20 Kempton Economy 2pts 11/2 (Coral)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Positive bulletin from John Gosden this morning Steve regarding your 33/1 Ante-Post Oaks filly
Taghrooda
in the RP. Fingers crossed she gets there for you.
Positive bulletin from John Gosden this morning Steve regarding your 33/1 Ante-Post Oaks filly
Taghrooda
in the RP. Fingers crossed she gets there for you.
Thanks Gord, If Gosden is positive then she must be flying.
It’s a nervous time with just a couple of weeks to go. I got a run from Secret Gesture last year but she was stuffed into second by her stable mate and the 25/1 went off the crossbar.
I just saw that Rizeena is out of the Irish 1000 after a nosebleed following her work, maybe the dream is on its way out for Clive Brittain with her.
Yesterday saw a respectable third for Economy but the betting told the story for once with the market leaders 1 and 2 in the race.
A quick seven point boot in the knackers and were +4.5 pts going forward.
Be lucky people!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking at the Oaks betting today made me think there is still value in Taghrooda at 15/8. There is nothing that I see emerging from the Guineas other than Ihtimal. The trials threw up Madame Chiang but the favourite Cambridge flopped that day and I would imagine the winner would like soft ground.
Tarfasha was a good winner for Dermot Weld in the Blue Wind at Naas but as I have said the trainer doesn’t send many to Epsom and this filly is in the same ownership as Taghrooda.
Shamkala is as low as 6/1 despite her trainer clearly stating she will stay in France and not go to Epsom. Good luck to those backing her and watching her in another race.
For me it is hard to see one of Aiden O’Briens fillies win the Oaks this year. They look exposed as below top class and/or flopped on their last runs. I just can’t see it being his year.
Down the list the prices vary wildly on Guineas runner-up Lightning Thunder. She is as low as 12/1 and as high as 25/1. I don’t think she’s crying out for the Oaks trip and Sunday will tell us more when she runs in the Irish 1000 G. My worry is that her two wins were modest races and she did get beat when odds on last season. I don’t think she’ll line up.
The horse that Taghrooda beat in the Pretty Polly (Jordan Princess) runs at Goodwood this afternoon and a good performance from her will probably see Taghrooda nibbled in further. With it looking to me that Ihtimal will probably be second fav on the day and with Taghrooda still open to plenty of improvement, particularly over the trip, I think she is well worth a maximum 10pts at 15/8 with Paddy Power.
The Oaks Taghrooda 10pts win 15/8 (Paddy Power)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After a weekend where Joyeuse was advised at 11/2 but not put up here due to feeling unwell it is time to look at more modest fare.
The 3.55 at Leicester sees Kickboxer as favourite for the Mick Channon stable. A quick glance shows him to be more exposed than most and I’m looking for an improver with less miles on the clock.
Greeb looks a likely sort after a third in a decent Newmarket handicap last time. I am not a big fan of the Charlie Hills stable though and this horse will be running on ground a good bit softer today so 3/1 looks a bit skinny.
I am not exactly waving a Marco Botti scarf either but I am drawn to his horse Golden Steps, who has been gelded and romped home in albeit a poor race last time. There is a 5lb claimer on board and that is perhaps why this horse is not favourite today. He holds an entry for the Wokingham so I am presuming they think he could be half decent in time. At 4/1 he is worth a 4pt punt.
3.55 Leicester Golden Steps 4pts win 4/1 (Stan James)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not a bad run from Golden Steps who was slowly away. Kickboxer did have the "kick" that put the race to bed and a typical Mick Channon runner who pops up after looking exposed but when the money has come for them.
As stated there was concern regarding Greeb on the softer ground but it didn’t stop punters backing him into favourite. Probably the most impressive looking horse in the field with scope about him to progress he might be worth another chance on better ground, but only if the price is right.
+0.5pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking at Royal Ascot we see two O’Brien colts heading the betting for the Coventry. The Great War and War Envoy have had different profiles with the former looking a real speed merchant plying his trade at 5F. I wonder of 6F will be his game though and will the colts take each other on?
At the current odds William Haggas’s Adaay takes the eye. He recently won the Newbury race Canford Cliffs took before going on to victory in the Coventry. A decent looking prospect who cost 240,000 you would think he will improve a good bit and he finished his race to good effect last time.
I have not seen many likely types so far this year and although Mind Of Madness has had good reports the Haggas horse makes appeal at the best price of 12/1 with him being as low as 7/1 elsewhere. The 4th horse at Newbury won today at Windsor and that never hurts.
Coventry Stakes Adaay 2pts 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The going is heavy at Leicester now and the 3.30 Race sees the betting tight for favouritism. I had been planning on Nirva when she dropped back in grade and this handicap looks more realistic. If she handles the ground I think she will go close for Ralph Beckett.
3.30 Leicester Nirva 3pts 10/3 (Totesport)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The French Derby takes place this weekend and if the betting is correct it will be between Prince Gibraltar and Karakontie. Karakontie is still in the betting for Epsom but he’s not going to run in the UK less than a week after participating in the French version, so we can forget that load of nonsense right away.
Prince Gibraltar has won at the lower level of the two but his stamina is the more certain, having won twice at 10f on soft and he is 3 from 3 in his career. Karakontie won the French 2000G but had to work quite hard to prevail and the trip is a slight question despite his Epsom entry.
I am looking further ahead than Sunday and considering the Arc possibilities. My thinking is that a horse who has won at 10f on soft and who could net the French Derby should be a good contender for the Arc on home soil. However you look at Treve’s seasonal debut, the fact remains that Arc winners rarely repeat. I think Prince Gibraltar will win on Sunday and his Arc price will shorten, perhaps quite dramatically, in the aftermath.
With very little appealing outside Treve, I think 20/1 Prince Gibraltar looks worth a punt.
Arc De Triomphe Prince Gibraltar 4pts 20/1 (Coral, Hills etc)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The going is heavy at Leicester now and the 3.30 Race sees the betting tight for favouritism. I had been planning on Nirva when she dropped back in grade and this handicap looks more realistic. If she handles the ground I think she will go close for Ralph Beckett.
3.30 Leicester Nirva 3pts 10/3 (Totesport)
I don’t think she was at home on the surface and probably an unwise bet through sheer boredom when the ground was an unknown.
Must be more disciplined
-2.5 pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ll stay away from the Brigadier Gerard stakes at Sandown tonight and concentrate elsewhere.
After much speculation about Remote coming out of the Group 3 contest it is Hillstar, the original favourite, who has been withdrawn leaving Sharestan heading the market for the four runner race. With such a small field and doubt about the ground for Remote I’ll just be watching this one.
The stayers race sees Brown Panther and Tiger Cliff disputing favouritism. I prefer the former horse but just have a feeling 2 miles on heavy ground may find him out. He hasn’t run at the trip often and although he has won at the trip that was at Goodwood on good ground and tonight’s conditions will sap the stamina. Camborne is a horse who could pop up at a price on this softer ground that he seems to need but he is not the most straight forward animal. Overall it looks a race to leave alone for me.
For tonight’s bet I am taking another chance with Master Carpenter in the 8.20 race. There are potential dangers but sometimes the more potentially progressive horses don’t deliver.
End Of Line is generally a narrow fav here and will be popular due to the good form of the Balding yard. He drops down in grade after running in the French 2000G but we don’t know how good that race was yet and he was only 9th that day. His debut in a handicap this season, where he finished second hasn’t worked out well and at the odds I will pass him over.
Indy is 1 for 1 and could be anything. He’s a narrow second fav tonight for the Barron yard. He has won on soft but has to concede fitness in testing conditions over 2 furlongs further this evening. That is enough to dissuade me.
Patentar was 4th in the Craven when 40/1 and he took a 12lb hike in the ratings for that. The Grey Gatsby has been put forward as boosting the form but I think the link is tenuous. This will be by far the softest going Patentar has run on and that has to be a concern.
John Gosden’s runner looks very much the outsider here having been last in the Epsom Derby trial. He makes little appeal here.
Master Carpenter has arguably the best piece of form with his third place in the Greenham. Kingman and Night Of Thunder are the proverbial "different gravy" to those in opposition today and although Master Carpenter hasn’t won as often as one would have hoped I think today’s trip and going combination might be his ideal scenario. The ground was faster last time when he ran behind Pinzolo but he ran a decent race in defeat. In what could be last chance saloon I am going in at 7/2 with Ryan Moore an encouraging sight on board this evening.
8.20 Sandown Master Carpenter 6pts 7/2 (widely available)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hi Steve. I too am keen on MC tonight, soft ground seems to suit the horse and can use his experience to his advantage. I like to refer to stable tour quotes occasionally for certain trainers, so here’s Rod Millman’s comment re MC:
"He probably ran above expectations in the Greenham and we are not sure where he goes yet. He has come out of the race very well. We always thought he was a very nice horse and he proved that at Newbury."
It’s worth noting that Millman had a winner with Graphene earlier today, who also had a positive write up, so hopefully MC can give him a double.
Master Carpenter has arguably the best piece of form with his third place in the Greenham. Kingman and Night Of Thunder are the proverbial "different gravy" to those in opposition today and although Master Carpenter hasn’t won as often as one would have hoped I think today’s trip and going combination might be his ideal scenario. The ground was faster last time when he ran behind Pinzolo but he ran a decent race in defeat. In what could be last chance saloon I am going in at 7/2 with Ryan Moore an encouraging sight on board this evening.
8.20 Sandown Master Carpenter 6pts 7/2 (widely available)
Ride of the century there from Ryan Moore Steve,different class to that lot and touched 9/2 in running,Well done and a good write-up to boot!
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