- This topic has 275 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Two very interesting 2yo O’Brien colts running tomorrow in the first two races at Naas; Timbuktu (enough 2’s for you in one line?!) in the 5.45 and War Envoy in the 6.15, both were only asked to do enough on their debuts and I’d fully expect them to get the stable back into full swing. May put a double on them.
The York races tomorrow look quite tricky to me so might avoid them, good luck with your bets though!
War Envoy is a non runner now. Timbuktu is as low as 1/3 so I’m not taking that one on!
Dazzling is narrow fav for O’Brien on the same card but Terrific didn’t do a lot for her form when running next time. Tarfasha for Dermot Weld might have been a pick for me but at 9/4 compared to 2/1 for Dazzling there is no value when you factor in her making her seasonal debut and the 3f increase in distance since she ran behind My Titania last season. A race to watch at the odds currently available.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Two very interesting 2yo O’Brien colts running tomorrow in the first two races at Naas; Timbuktu (enough 2’s for you in one line?!) in the 5.45 and War Envoy in the 6.15, both were only asked to do enough on their debuts and I’d fully expect them to get the stable back into full swing. May put a double on them.
The York races tomorrow look quite tricky to me so might avoid them, good luck with your bets though!
War Envoy is a non runner now. Timbuktu is as low as 1/3 so I’m not taking that one on!
Dazzling is narrow fav for O’Brien on the same card but Terrific didn’t do a lot for her form when running next time. Tarfasha for Dermot Weld might have been a pick for me but at 9/4 compared to 2/1 for Dazzling there is no value when you factor in her making her seasonal debut and the 3f increase in distance since she ran behind My Titania last season. A race to watch at the odds currently available.
With the ground not drying as much as Id hoped over in Ireland I didn’t put that double on thankfully. Initially I was interested in betting on Dazzling, but after watching her last race I was remarkably unimpressed with her win, she just didn’t look that fast and the time does her no favours either. Won’t be having a bet at Naas now, like York it’s quite a sketchy days racing there!
May well do this treble:
Kashmiri Sunset (5.55 Chepstow) – looks as though the stable have been waiting for this race to lump on, finally got the ground/trip he wants.
Nathans Pride (4.45 Worcester) – admittedly dodgy but should he get round he should win. The opposition is incredibly weak.
Be Bold (5.25 Chepstow) – ground the only potential issue, but regardless should comfortably.Musidora day at York on Wednesday and we get to see whether Cambridge can solidify her place as second fav in the Oaks betting, or perhaps even go in to favourite with a startling display. She has undoubted scope but for me is short enough for Epsom on what she has achieved and vibes were a little uneasy regarding the ground.
I am not a fan of Charlie Hills, considering the results to ammunition ratio and feel the need to oppose Cambridge. Ice Queen is a William Haggas horse who has done nothing wrong but I don’t feel the stable has been cherry ripe this year and she is skinny in certain betting lists. I think the Stoute runner has physical scope and perhaps the trip on this ground will suit her. I wouldn’t have backed her other than for the reason that Corals go a stand out 11/2, when she is as low as 7/2 with some firms. At those odds in an open contest she is my selection.
I already have Moviesta at 14/1 for tomorrow and probably feel Maarek and Astaire are the dangers. I’m not a big Jack Dexter fan as he sometimes seems to end up having a bit too much ground to make up.
The opening race on the card has been all about Rye House for Michael Stoute, in from 6/1 to 7/2. The horse has been off for a year though, so it’s a slight concern how he will fare after the absence. Clever Cookie was slowly away last time but made up the ground. He has stamina and the softer the better on that score. However this is a shorter trip than the mile and a half last time and the horse has run in bumpers and hurdle races including a well beaten in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. I’m looking one with a bit more speed on his CV.
David O’Meara saddles two, with Awake My Soul seemingly the one fancied with Danny Tudhope up. However, Richard Hughes is on Grandorio who had a couple of wins and several places last year. He’s only four and has won over course and distance, with some form on soft as well. At 12/1 he’s a suggestion for 1pt in an open heat.
Lahaag is generally second fav with Clever Cookie but I can’t trust the horse. I don’t like the way he moves and he’s run a few stinkers when I have backed him. I think the only reason he’s not twice the price he is, is the fact that John Gosden is his trainer and he’d be a lay for me at the lowest odds currently of 6/1.York Wed 1.45 Grandorio 1pt 12/1 (several places)
York Wed 2.45 Shama 3pts 11/2 (Corals)
Very poor effort from Moviesta but to be fair the ground was faster when I tipped him up and it didn’t look like he handled it at all. I think he’s probably a 5f horse and class helped him compete at 6f on a lower level. A couple of really bad runs is always a concern though and he’s only one run away from being a horse to worry about going forward. As I highlighted above I thought Maarek and Astaire were the dangers and I had a late saver on Maarek as 12/1 was big for a Gp1 winner whom I had tipped last time out. Generally satisfied having opposed the favourite and landed a forecast with the dangers but it doesn’t help the total going forward
The Queen’s horse tried to make all in the Musidora but weakened disappointingly, sort of typical of Sir Michael Stoute’s fortunes in recent years, a shadow of his heyday. Cambridge was pumped up like Richard Branson’s Cross Atlantic hot air balloon but had about the same amount of success as she crashed to earth back in 7th place. The winner Madame Chiang did it nicely enough but I think this was a very poor renewal of the race with no confidence behind anything and another William Haggas disappointment was in a mix of horses who were about hype and trainer’s names, rather than what they had done on the racecourse. 10/1 Madame Chiang makes no appeal to me for Epsom.
The opening race saw me kicking myself. I opposed the fav Rye House but went away from Clever Cookie as I thought the trip was too short. The token selection Grandorio never got involved but at least I was correct about the fav and Lahaag who was second in the betting last night but who I think is a horse to be wary of.
3 favs opposed successfully but 5pts off the total is the only reward.
-32.25pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
May well do this treble:
Kashmiri Sunset (5.55 Chepstow) – looks as though the stable have been waiting for this race to lump on, finally got the ground/trip he wants.
Nathans Pride (4.45 Worcester) – admittedly dodgy but should he get round he should win. The opposition is incredibly weak.
Be Bold (5.25 Chepstow) – ground the only potential issue, but regardless should comfortably.Get in
http://i59.tinypic.com/2cnxswl.png
May well do this treble:
Kashmiri Sunset (5.55 Chepstow) – looks as though the stable have been waiting for this race to lump on, finally got the ground/trip he wants.
Nathans Pride (4.45 Worcester) – admittedly dodgy but should he get round he should win. The opposition is incredibly weak.
Be Bold (5.25 Chepstow) – ground the only potential issue, but regardless should comfortably.Get in
http://i59.tinypic.com/2cnxswl.png
Well done Ben, it’s good to get a treble up as it can be bad enough landing a single sometimes.
That Timbuktu got stuffed though, shockarooni!
Never had time to pick anything today but thought Fury was worth laying at 3/1. He hadn’t won for two years and the Haggas stable has been hit and miss this year. It is hard to escape the belief that, as an overall group, punters are insane and will back any old crap they see money coming for.
I have said many times I was not convinced by how good True Story really was. Overall the Godolphin 3yo horses haven’t been much to shout about and I haven’t backed any of their horses this season at all, in fact I rarely ever back them apart from the odd 1st time 2yo as that seems their best chance to represent value.
Australia is odds on now and Geoffrey Chaucer a staggeringly short 10/1 having been 25/1 a few days ago. I am against Kingston Hill so I see Western Hymn as the last vestige of value at 14/1 with Ladbrokes. I did this fellow earlier in the year at 33/1 for the Derby and for the purpose of this thread I am recommending a 5pts
each way
at 14/1, just in case this Australia IS another Shergar.
Epsom Derby Western Hymn 5pts EW 14/1 (Ladbrokes)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Yorkshire Cup and time to oppose the penalised and somewhat dour looking Tac De Boistron, who is narrow fav.
Marco Botti is not one of my favourites by any means and his horse seems best over a real stamina test and I think this will be sharp enough for him. He has to carry 4lbs more as a Group 1 winner and at 7 years old he’s pretty exposed.
Gospel Choir probably got flattered when seeing off Trading Leather last time but he’s lightly raced, has won half his races and really looks worth a bet with the step up in trip the slight question for a horse somewhat surprisingly tried over 9f in The Earl Of Sefton and now facing 5f further.
Slight signs of encouragement from the Stoute yard but still the odd stinker, I am hoping the older horses will hold their form better. Got to be worth a 4pts punt at 9/2.
I have liked Cubanita but just worry a bit on the trip front and whether she could beat Noble Mission again if they met. I think she’s a little short priced for this race.
Seal Of Approval had a great 2013, apart from falling when clipping heels. I just have concerns that her last win at 16/1 might have been a bit of a fluke because Oaks winner Talent and the other two co-favs all ran pretty poorly along with Waila. If you take that run out I’m sure she would be much bigger odds here. The 4lb group 1 penalty makes her my lay for the race.
So it’s Stoutie and Gospel Choir for me.
2.45 York Friday Gospel Choir 4pts 9/2 (Hills and others)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice to get a winner for a change, although Gospel Choir was running on fumes a bit at the end. The 4lb penalty did for Tac De Boistron but he ran a game race and is worth keeping in mind when stamina is a greater factor than today.
Ryan Moore confirmed my main fear today, and that was whether Gospel Choir really needs or wanted the trip today and he’s not a cup horse based on visual evidence or jockey opinion.
Cubanita never got home and surely needs to drop back in distance, while Seal Of Approval ran well enough in 4th to suggest she’ll win something decent this year.
Penglai Pavillion is worth noting because he has now finished last on his two runs in the UK. Rated 118 after being 5th in last years Arc when a 40/1 shot and dropped 1lb to 117 after being last behind today’s winner last time, I suspect that rating is cobblers and that his run in the Arc was a flash in the pan, or the form just wasn’t as hot as we all thought at the time. There have been 18 subsequent runs from the Arc race according to ATR stats and there have been 0 winners, 6 placed and 12 unplaced from those runs. Most notably, Treve was one who failed at odds-on next time. Early days but not exactly setting the heather on fire yet.
New total is -14.25pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Some trappy looking contests on Saturday and I’m leaving the Lockinge well alone.
The aim is to take a couple of Willie Haggas horses on and one of Godolphins.
Satellite is generally fav for the 3.15 at Newbury and could be anything after an easy opening win. The stable haven’t really been at the top of their game and Michael Stoute has a likely improver in Cannock Chase who won a Windsor race that has thrown up three winners since. Windshear for the Hannon stable won last time as well but the ground was soft that day and will be faster tomorrow. He’s around about the same price as the Haggas horse and I pass him over in favour of Stoute’s colt.
4pts at 4/1 is suggested on Cannock Chase
Haggas also has a favourite with Token Of Love, who won her only race last year. Stepping into handicap company in the 5.00 at Newbury, she could easily defy her opening mark but the stable form is a slight concern and others have runs on the board already this season. John Gosden was in imperious form a month ago but not quite so hot now, otherwise I think the top weight Angelic Air would be a warm order here. I’ll take a chance that she will progress and defy her burden simply because she looks better value at 4/1 than the Haggas filly does at as low as 5/2. This will be Angelic Air’s first try on good turf after efforts on soft and then all weather.
Another 4pts at 4/1 on her.
Finally, Pinzolo looks very short in the 4.05 at Newmarket. He took on Kingston Hill in The Racing Post Trophy last back end but cut no ice in the muddy ground. Third to Barley Mow on 2000 Guineas day when people were having canaries regarding the fields splitting he is sure to be a popular choice in a small field but the stable are operating in fits and starts with some very modest performances from horses with big reputations and at as low as 5/4 he has enough negatives to steer me away. Sloane Avenue is generally second fav after a 9 length romp at Lingfield last time but he was 1/2 that day and it was a modest race. He could improve but he needs to do that just to be competitive, never mind win, and it slightly concerns me that he’s not run since February and the stable have had few runners and no winners this month. At 5/2 he’s readily passed over, leaving the selection as Master Carpenter. This horse raised eyebrows when third at 80/1 in The Greenham but the first two went on to finish in reverse order in the 2000 Guineas and the fifth horse Astaire, was a good second in the big York Sprint this week. That looks far above Sloane Avenue’s form thus far and although Master Carpenter was third next time behind Derby hopeful Western Hymn on soft at Sandown, I feel he has to run to the Greenham form to win here. At 7/2 I think he’s worth a couple of points in a race that may not be as straightforward as the fav’s odds suggest.
3.15 Newbury Cannock Chase 4pts 4/1
5.00 Newbury Angelic Air 4pts 4/1
4.05 Newmarket Master Carpenter 2pts 7/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking ahead to Royal Ascot I have decided to have a go with the Yorkshire Cup second Tac De Boistron in the Gold Cup.
I read that last year’s winner Estimate is not where they want her at the moment and she disappointed on her final start last year as 2/1f. She’s a little weak in the betting right now and I’d be concerned if a fan.
Leading Light won last year’s St Leger but found himself out of his depth in The Arc De Triomphe. He may well make up into a top class cup horse but he still has to deal with the step up to 20 furlongs at Ascot. He runs tomorrow in the Vintage Crop stakes at Navan, where he is generally 13/8 at the moment. The race will tell us about his well being without answering the stamina issue at the 14 furlong trip.
I want to get in on Tac De Boistron as he has done little wrong and he’s a true stayer. An excellent second staying on behind Gospel Choir in The Yorkshire Cup on ground probably as fast as he would want it shows a horse in rude health after his good win in the Sagaro at Sandown previously. He ticks more boxes than the others at the moment and 6/1 looks a solid each way.
This column is about winners in the main though, so it’s 5pts win at 6/1 and a close eye on Leading Light tomorrow.
Ascot Gold Cup Tac De Boistron 5pts 6/1 (several firms)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Started well with Cannock Chase and then a respectable effort from Master Carpenter in second behind hotpot Pinzolo, with my lay Sloane Avenue very poor after drifting right out to 6/1.
A bitterly disappointing effort from Angelic Air, who weakened badly in the 5.00 Race. There have been several very poor runs by John Gosden runners this past week and Dorothy B was desperately bad today as well. I have to be worried for Taghrooda and Western Hymn based on the stable form this week and I will be avoiding the yard for the moment.
Still a decent day with two out of three original favs beaten and 10pts staked for 20pts returned.
-4.25 pts moving forward.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Vintage Crop was a horse who did me a couple of great favours when winning the Cesarewitch and Melbourne Cup. The race run in his name takes place at Navan today over 1m 6f and is a starting point for last year’s St Leger hero and Cup horse in waiting Leading Light.
I have already expressed concerns regarding the Ascot Gold Cup trip for Leading Light but today he has gone out to 2nd fav due to all the money seemingly coming for Dermot Weld’s Pale Mimosa. Dermot Weld has been in great form and has chinned a few Ballydoyle runners along the way but I am not sure he has the ammunition to repeat the feat this afternoon.
For all that Leading Light’s main targets come later in the season and the well documented habit of O’Brien leaving his horses short of peak condition on their seasonal debuts, there is no doubt he is the classier horse of the two heading the betting. Pale Mimosa is as short as 5/4 fav and I think that is rank value. Leading Light is a Group 1 winner running in a Group 3 race against a horse who is ahead of him in the betting despite having never won a race higher than Listed class.
If class means anything he will prevail, so it’s a maximum 10pts at 15/8 and fingers crossed Aiden hasn’t put him out there 50% fit
4.05 Navan Leading Light 10pts 15/8
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Straight forward enough for Leading Light in the end with the original bad favourite beaten off.
7/4 makes no appeal for The Gold Cup at the 6f further trip though.
Out of the red and into the green at last.
+14.5pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cheers Boz, I was a bit gung ho with some early selections and a wee bit unlucky with a couple. I was kicking myself a bit for going with Angelic Air yesterday as I was starting to be concerned by some poor efforts from the Gosden yard recently. As usual, when you give them one more go it doesn’t tend to pay off.
Any word on My Titania for the Oaks? Her old sparring partner Tarfasha did the form a power of good and put herself in the picture at the same time. A slight concern about the mile and a half for both fillies really but Taghrooda is awfully short now and I’d be wary at the current odds based on a promising debut and one runaway win. She still has to prove she’s the real deal, although she has tremendous scope. I have been toying as to whether it is worth a silly bet on her for The Arc. Probably unlikely she will go there but if she wins the Oaks in style there would be worse prospects in the field at Longchamp if she did appear. She certainly wouldn’t be the price she is currently, which is
50/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Haven’t heard too much beyond the intended Irish Guineas date on Sunday, although I’m sure it’d depend how she’d come out of that with only a twelve day gap between the two races. The ground seems to be going against her at the Curragh as well, so I couldn’t even be 100% sure she’d take her place. If she skipped Ireland it’d take a huge leap of faith to send her straight to Epsom without a run so her options aren’t looking ideal right now. We’ll have to wait and see, though I’m certain she’s got some big races in her this year. I’m personally gutted she had to miss Newmarket, thought she would have had a grand chance there and would have been an ideal if not obvious starting point.
Windsor sees a hot pot gambled in to odds on in a handicap this evening. Cafe Society was 6th when beaten in a decent race last time and the 5th horse Van Percy won on Saturday when 11/4f and that is enough to have set the money well behind the Simcock trained horse today. For certain he looks sure to be right there but 4/5 in a handicap is not where I want to tread.
Looking more closely at Cafe Society’s form we see he has gone off fancied as fav, 2nd fav, or co fav on most starts. He has gone up the handicap by a stone but only won the one race, slightly adding to the concern about going in at short odds.
Looking at the others the eye is drawn to the form line of Ballinderry Boy, who is top weight. A string of consistent runs, Oisin Murphy on board and trained by in form Andrew Balding. So why is he 6/1? Well his winning form is at two miles and he’s dropping back in trip by half a mile tonight, begging the question as to whether he has enough pace to be competitive. At the odds he is worth chancing. Probably an each-way selection for the cautious punter but on the nose for the adventurous tipper.
8.05 Windsor Ballinderry Boy 2pts 6/1 (Bet Victor)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Paddy Power have put prices up for The St James’ Palace Stakes and have Kingman fav at 7/4, with 2000G conqueror Night Of Thunder in at 3/1.
With Kingman trying to get back to winning ways at The Curragh this week in the Irish Guineas, his supporters will probably look to take the 7/4 hoping he puts up a good show over the water.
Kingman was an expensive failure for me at Newmarket after backing him at 9/1 and I just wonder if the extra furlong found him out, rather than the much moaned about splitting of the field. With that in mind I am going to have a go at Night Of Thunder at 3/1 because he’s already turned the form around with Kingman and can we say 100% that it was a fluke? If Kingman fails at the weekend and stamina is given as the reason, he may go for The July Cup, where they entered him after the Guineas. That would leave Night Of Thunder looking big at 3/1 with a lot of the current list unlikely to turn up Ascot.
St James Palace Stakes Night Of Thunder 5pt 3/1 (Paddy Power)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.