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Thursday sees the potential D-Day for Telescope, who has been a horse more of reputation and expectation, rather than actual achievement so far. With his much needed comeback run behind him there will be little hiding place if he fails tomorrow at Chester.
He meets Noble Mission again and has a fair bit to catch up but Timeform are tipping him to reverse the form on this occasion. Noble Mission is shading favouritism here and I am going to take them both on with Roger Varian’s Ektihaam at 7/2 or better. This horse cost me a lot when he slipped when well clear in The Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. Previous to that he had looked to improve for a more aggressive ride and his final race of the season was best forgotten, as he ran well below his best in the Diamond stakes.
Tactics will be interesting as Noble Mission appeared to show a penchant for making the running when slamming Telescope last time. Will they run the guts out of each other and leave Telescope to come through or will one dominate and make the most of the sharp track?
Tight to call but I prefer Ektihaam marginally at the odds.
The Chester Vase probably won’t throw up the Derby winner like it did last year. Aiden O Brien fields two with current fav Carlo Bugatti ridden by Joseph and Orchestra ridden by Ryan Moore. Carlo is fitted with blinkers already and that looks a worrying sign. He was only 4th in the Ballysax last time and although it was soft that day I have concerns regarding the overall standard of the Ballydoyle horses this season. Orchestra has potential but has only won a maiden at 4/11 so far and he steps up in distance quite a lot on his seasonal debut. 4/1 is short enough given some modest runs from some high profile stablemates.
I’m looking for a decent price and Seagull Star from the Haggas stable is a contender. By Sea The Stars he ran well in the Tattersalls Millions at Newmarket when finishing third, a few places ahead of Racing Post Trophy runner up, and race favourite, Johann Strauss. His odds are not quite high enough to tempt me though, with the Haggas stable not quite firing on all cylinders yet.
A chance is taken on the Mark Johnston trained Stars Over The Sea. Another son of Sea The Stars, he is said to have less scope for improvement having had more runs last season. I thought he ran a decent race when third in the Investec Derby trial at Epsom, where I was all over his stablemate Hartnell, who disappointed the trainer in 5th. I expect Stars Over The Sea to improve and he wouldn’t be the first Mark Johnston horse to set the pace and keep going when better fancied ones haven’t read the script and can’t catch the leader.
Thursday Chester 2.15 Ektihaam 4pts win 7/2 (or better)
Thursday Chester 2.45 Stars Over The Sea 2pts (10/1 or better)
Well, Telescope didn’t win but another appalling run from Ektihaam who must now go down as a horse to avoid. It is all very well going to the front if you can settle, but this horse clearly has a problem in doing that. A game performance from Noble Mission and probably a career best but I suspect he’s still not quite top class.
The Channel 4 boys want to give Telescope a chance on better ground but I’ll keep going against him.
Hard to be excited by the Chester Vase form. The winner has physical scope but it didn’t look a strong race. Carlo Bugatti went out like a light and was another correctly identified bad favourite. One of these days I’ll back the correct horse against the fav!
-41pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A speculative bet for the weekend for me is Horsted Keynes at 10/1 for the Victoria Cup on Saturday. He’s fav at the moment in a wide open affair but I can see him starting a fair bit shorter as a lightly raced Roger Varian horse who has been tried only at the 7f trip thus far. He has won four from six at the trip and although he seemed an all weather type, he came through on the bit at Yarmouth to win readily on his first attempt on turf. Surely scope for improvement there and punters seem to latch onto Varian runners, so this Giant’s Causeway gelding may be shorter by Saturday.
Be lucky people!
Victoria Cup Ascot Saturday. Horsted Keynes 2pts 10/1 (Widely Available)
Like him a lot Stevie, think he’s better than this company and only masquerading as a handicapper. Varian’s obviously taking his time with him and feels the softly softly approach may pay dividends. For that reason I’d be inclined to oppose him on Saturday as it’s his first outing in a big field handicap. He’s definitely one to keep on the right side of though. All the best with him Saturday.
Not running. Unsuitable ground.
A speculative bet for the weekend for me is Horsted Keynes at 10/1 for the Victoria Cup on Saturday. He’s fav at the moment in a wide open affair but I can see him starting a fair bit shorter as a lightly raced Roger Varian horse who has been tried only at the 7f trip thus far. He has won four from six at the trip and although he seemed an all weather type, he came through on the bit at Yarmouth to win readily on his first attempt on turf. Surely scope for improvement there and punters seem to latch onto Varian runners, so this Giant’s Causeway gelding may be shorter by Saturday.
Be lucky people!
Victoria Cup Ascot Saturday. Horsted Keynes 2pts 10/1 (Widely Available)
Like him a lot Stevie, think he’s better than this company and only masquerading as a handicapper. Varian’s obviously taking his time with him and feels the softly softly approach may pay dividends. For that reason I’d be inclined to oppose him on Saturday as it’s his first outing in a big field handicap. He’s definitely one to keep on the right side of though. All the best with him Saturday.
Not running. Unsuitable ground.
Yes, I noticed he was drifting out before disappearing altogether from the betting. C’est la vie.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saturday and Lingfield hosts Oaks and Derby Trials. Last year Secret Gesture stormed home and gave a big boost to my 25/1 ante-post voucher on her. Sadly she was turned over by the stable mate they had considered well inferior on home showing and I collected nowt.
This time around the filly who ran behind Taghrooda last year seems likely to be right there despite still being a maiden. Casual Smile is also by Sea The Stars and she should appreciate the step up in distance and make improvement for being more mature now. Sadly they have made her favourite and it’s hard to recommend a maiden at only 3/1, so we’ll pass that race by.
The Derby Trial has Godolphin’s Sudden Wonder in at as low as 5/2 and that looks bad value to me. He won the Tattersalls Millions at Newmarket by a head when the favourite Johann Strauss could only finish sixth. Five horses have run from that race since and all have finished unplaced with Seagull Star being the most prominent runner from the race going on to the Chester Vase where he cut little ice in 4th being beaten 10 lengths.
I tend to take Godolphin on second time out and there are a few to consider for this purpose. Aiden O’Brien has two entered, with Mekong River much more exposed than the once raced Blue Hussar. Mekong River has form on mostly soft ground and he has a 3lb penalty, so I’ll rule him out with less exposed ones to choose from.
Blue Hussar is 1 from 1 and can make big improvement stepping up from the 7f he debuted on at Leopardstown on soft last year. There have been a couple of winners come out of the race but only a maiden and a low level handicap. The stable have had a couple of winners this week but they have been narrow ones and I said before that I didn’t think much of the line ups at Chester this season. At 5/1 he’s a pass for me.
Snow Sky is a mystery to me at joint fav in some places. I think a lot is made of the fact that he won by 11 lengths on his third start. He was supplemented for the Racing Post Trophy on the back of that but cut no ice in a race that hasn’t worked out very well with ten runs and no wins since. He made a decent enough comeback at Newbury behind Western Hymn but the Gosden horse was a cosy winner that day. He’s had five runs now and I just don’t see why some have him favourite with the stable only operating fitfully.
John Gosden should have a line on Stoute’s horse through Western Hymn and he has a potential improver in Munjaz. I have kept an eye on this horse because whatever he did last season he should step up on being by Sea The Stars and he should improve for the further he goes. I have a good ticket on stable mate and half sister Taghrooda at 33/1 for the Oaks and stuck a silly bet on Munjaz for the Derby at 66/1 in the hope he takes a huge leap forward this year. If he is to be a realistic Epsom contender then he has to win tomorrow. His comeback race was satisfactory rather than exciting but I think he’ll leave that well behind. The Newmarket race has thrown up a winner and a 1-2 in another race since.
I feel 8/1 is probably not taking him seriously and the stable had a runner go close at Chester in the shape of Romsdal, who is ahead of Munjaz in the Derby betting but who is shown as having the Edward VII at Royal Ascot as his next target.
2.55 Lingfield Saturday Munjaz 2pts win 8/1 (Hills and others)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saturday and Lingfield hosts Oaks and Derby Trials. Last year Secret Gesture stormed home and gave a big boost to my 25/1 ante-post voucher on her. Sadly she was turned over by the stable mate they had considered well inferior on home showing and I collected nowt.
This time around the filly who ran behind Taghrooda last year seems likely to be right there despite still being a maiden. Casual Smile is also by Sea The Stars and she should appreciate the step up in distance and make improvement for being more mature now. Sadly they have made her favourite and it’s hard to recommend a maiden at only 3/1, so we’ll pass that race by.
The Derby Trial has Godolphin’s Sudden Wonder in at as low as 5/2 and that looks bad value to me. He won the Tattersalls Millions at Newmarket by a head when the favourite Johann Strauss could only finish sixth. Five horses have run from that race since and all have finished unplaced with Seagull Star being the most prominent runner from the race going on to the Chester Vase where he cut little ice in 4th being beaten 10 lengths.
I tend to take Godolphin on second time out and there are a few to consider for this purpose. Aiden O’Brien has two entered, with Mekong River much more exposed than the once raced Blue Hussar. Mekong River has form on mostly soft ground and he has a 3lb penalty, so I’ll rule him out with less exposed ones to choose from.
Blue Hussar is 1 from 1 and can make big improvement stepping up from the 7f he debuted on at Leopardstown on soft last year. There have been a couple of winners come out of the race but only a maiden and a low level handicap. The stable have had a couple of winners this week but they have been narrow ones and I said before that I didn’t think much of the line ups at Chester this season. At 5/1 he’s a pass for me.
Snow Sky is a mystery to me at joint fav in some places. I think a lot is made of the fact that he won by 11 lengths on his third start. He was supplemented for the Racing Post Trophy on the back of that but cut no ice in a race that hasn’t worked out very well with ten runs and no wins since. He made a decent enough comeback at Newbury behind Western Hymn but the Gosden horse was a cosy winner that day. He’s had five runs now and I just don’t see why some have him favourite with the stable only operating fitfully.
John Gosden should have a line on Stoute’s horse through Western Hymn and he has a potential improver in Munjaz. I have kept an eye on this horse because whatever he did last season he should step up on being by Sea The Stars and he should improve for the further he goes. I have a good ticket on stable mate and half sister Taghrooda at 33/1 for the Oaks and stuck a silly bet on Munjaz for the Derby at 66/1 in the hope he takes a huge leap forward this year. If he is to be a realistic Epsom contender then he has to win tomorrow. His comeback race was satisfactory rather than exciting but I think he’ll leave that well behind. The Newmarket race has thrown up a winner and a 1-2 in another race since.
I feel 8/1 is probably not taking him seriously and the stable had a runner go close at Chester in the shape of Romsdal, who is ahead of Munjaz in the Derby betting but who is shown as having the Edward VII at Royal Ascot as his next target.
2.55 Lingfield Saturday Munjaz 2pts win 8/1 (Hills and others)
Well we found out Munjaz’s limitations today and he hasn’t come on from two to three as expected, showing in the process that Jockeys are crap tipsters with Paul Hanagan nominating him as his horse to follow this year.
In typical style the winner drifted out to a better price than when writing last night. He certainly did no harm to the form of Western Hymn who beat him at Newbury with a bit in hand.
Sudden Wonder was ominously weak but at least ran with credit, which could not be said of the O’Brien runners who went off plenty short enough given their profiles.
I am a bit miffed that Hartnell ran so well today having finished distressed last time when I put him up as a maximum bet at Epsom.
Casual Smile was disappointing today and I advised not backing her as a maiden at short odds.
In typical fashion I have advised against two favourites, been correct, and made nothing out of it.
Only one horse I have advised against so far on the thread has won and that was Guerre of Aiden O’Brien’s.
It’s a hard game and with my other horse today not running the total becomes a bigger red number at
It’s a mug’s game!!Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
While the O’Brien stable won two trials this week they were narrow wins and there have been several disappointments as well, none more bitter than 3/1 fav Mekong River in the Lingfield Derby trial today.
Tomorrow sees Geoffrey Chaucer put his credentials on the line at Leopardstown in the Derrinstown Stud trial. Put in at 6/4 last night he has eased to 7/4 today and with 3lb to concede on his seasonal debut I need to take him on, all things considered.
Obliterator was trounced by Derby second fav True Story in The Fielden and I’ll be surprised if he can win tomorrow. That leaves Dermot Weld’s Fascinating Rock who landed the Ballysax last time. Carlo Buggati was fourth that day and was disappointing next time when running out of petrol but the fifth horse Kingfisher won the Dee Stakes and that is doing no harm to his conqueror’s chance of following up.
Geoffrey Chaucer has carried a good reputation with him and has been said to be showing good speed for a Montjeu. It may help him if the ground stays good tomorrow, because his main betting rival has done his winning on soft. With O’Brien’s seemingly second best 3yo colt missing some previous engagements and making his debut against a race fit opponent, who could be smart himself, the 3lbs he has to concede, combined to the better odds, sways me to Fascinating Rock for this race.
In what I am looking at as a two horse contest I am going maximum ten points on the Dermot Weld runner.
15.55 Leopardstown Sunday Fascinating Rock 10pts win 5/2 (Bet 365)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A much needed winner via the stewards but the original fav was turned over and another O’Brien horse opposed successfully.
15p rule four for Obliterator leaves the advised odds at 2.125/1 for an even money return and the new total is
Tonight we are off to Windsor where a well bred Stoute 2yo makes her debut. Russian Heroine is by Invincible Spirit out of the stable’s former inmate Russian Rhythm and I’ll watch her with interest.There has been a move for the stable’s Stampede, who is making his handicap debut after three runs. Last on his debut, he was nothing special second time up but his chance tonight seems to have been based on a good staying on fourth on his last run. Fans will point to the stable bringing him forward slowly and his breeding making him a prospect stepping up and tackling a handicap on a potentially lenient mark. He’s well short now though at as low as evens and that always sets alarm bells of for me in handicaps.
A chance is taken with Meteoroid from the Lady Cecil yard. He was beaten at 2/1 fav last time but the ground was pretty fast that day and he may also be better for stepping up in trip with the easier ground. There is a race from last year where he was beaten 6 lengths by Bow Creek that would be a pointer if you could take literally that horse’s second in the Dee Stakes behind Kingfisher last week. Probably tenous but at 11/2 he seems worth a wee bet against the hotpot.
Later on, Lincoln hero Ocean Tempest attempts to confirm his upward profile. He won in listed company last time but is penalised 4 lbs now. I am giving one last try with Fencing, who ran behind the fav last time but who now wears a first time hood. Fencing is a hit or miss sort, mostly miss but at his best I think he’d win this. With Ocean Tempest at 5/4 and Fencing at 5/1 I’ll take a chance that the hood works the magic.
18.50 Windsor Meteoroid 2pts win 11/2
19.20 Windsor Fencing 2pts win 5/1
Odds generally available.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A blank night AND two winning favs. Meteoroid was the one for money in to 9/4 while Stampede drifted back out to 2/1. it looked like the fav might be in trouble but he kept on plodding and wore down the leaders, with the Lady Cecil horse looking like he never got home at this trip. It looks the further the better for the winner who looks a dour type.
Not so chuffed with the ride Fencing got from Rab Havlin, who managed to get trapped behind two horses in a five runner race. Probably a little flattered by the way he seemed to be travelling but nonetheless looking a danger, Havlin eventually had to resort to barging his way out a little bit but it was clearly too late as Ocean Tempest had first run. Out Of Bounds was another disappointing Godolphin runner there.
Moviesta, advised earlier at 14/1, is now a best priced 13/2 for the Duke Of York sprint on Wednesday.Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It looks a very open race Steve and Moviesta is certainly interesting judged on his group two win last year at Goodwood and has a decent draw in the middle. Ground shouldn’t in convince him either. He did run a shocker in the Nunthorpe however, but that was a hot race. Jack Dexter and Maarek would interest me also with some top class form on a soft surface.
It looks a very open race Steve and Moviesta is certainly interesting judged on his group two win last year at Goodwood and has a decent draw in the middle. Ground shouldn’t in convince him either. He did run a shocker in the Nunthorpe however, but that was a hot race. Jack Dexter and Maarek would interest me also with some top class form on a soft surface.
I think Bryan Smart said Moviesta banged his head before the Nunthorpe and that was why he ran a shocker.
I prefer Maarek to Jack Dexter, as I feel the latter horse just lacks a bit of early pace and even on his beloved soft ground he sometimes gets left with a bit too much ground to make up. I’m looking for a bit of progress from Moviesta this year, he’s young enough for a sprinter and 14/1 looked quite big at the time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Musidora day at York on Wednesday and we get to see whether Cambridge can solidify her place as second fav in the Oaks betting, or perhaps even go in to favourite with a startling display. She has undoubted scope but for me is short enough for Epsom on what she has achieved and vibes were a little uneasy regarding the ground.
I am not a fan of Charlie Hills, considering the results to ammunition ratio and feel the need to oppose Cambridge. Ice Queen is a William Haggas horse who has done nothing wrong but I don’t feel the stable has been cherry ripe this year and she is skinny in certain betting lists. I think the Stoute runner has physical scope and perhaps the trip on this ground will suit her. I wouldn’t have backed her other than for the reason that Corals go a stand out 11/2, when she is as low as 7/2 with some firms. At those odds in an open contest she is my selection.
I already have Moviesta at 14/1 for tomorrow and probably feel Maarek and Astaire are the dangers. I’m not a big Jack Dexter fan as he sometimes seems to end up having a bit too much ground to make up.
The opening race on the card has been all about Rye House for Michael Stoute, in from 6/1 to 7/2. The horse has been off for a year though, so it’s a slight concern how he will fare after the absence. Clever Cookie was slowly away last time but made up the ground. He has stamina and the softer the better on that score. However this is a shorter trip than the mile and a half last time and the horse has run in bumpers and hurdle races including a well beaten in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. I’m looking one with a bit more speed on his CV.
David O’Meara saddles two, with Awake My Soul seemingly the one fancied with Danny Tudhope up. However, Richard Hughes is on Grandorio who had a couple of wins and several places last year. He’s only four and has won over course and distance, with some form on soft as well. At 12/1 he’s a suggestion for 1pt in an open heat.
Lahaag is generally second fav with Clever Cookie but I can’t trust the horse. I don’t like the way he moves and he’s run a few stinkers when I have backed him. I think the only reason he’s not twice the price he is, is the fact that John Gosden is his trainer and he’d be a lay for me at the lowest odds currently of 6/1.York Wed 1.45 Grandorio 1pt 12/1 (several places)
York Wed 2.45 Shama 3pts 11/2 (Corals)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Two very interesting 2yo O’Brien colts running tomorrow in the first two races at Naas; Timbuktu (enough 2’s for you in one line?!) in the 5.45 and War Envoy in the 6.15, both were only asked to do enough on their debuts and I’d fully expect them to get the stable back into full swing. May put a double on them.
The York races tomorrow look quite tricky to me so might avoid them, good luck with your bets though!
War Envoy
one of the most interesting runners tomorrow alright, but if I was betting I’d much rather chance Ger Lyons’
Cappella Sansevero
at 7/1 with Racebets. War Envoy was undoubtedly a very impressive winner in his maiden but Cappella Sansevero horse was equally so when turning a Dundalk maiden into a procession. Ger Lyons should have a line to War Envoy given he trained the runner up of that maiden (although War Envoy obviously won with plenty to spare), so market confidence in Cappella Sansevero would have to be respected. 4/9 WE vs 7/1 CS doesn’t seem right to me! Both would almost certainly prefer better ground but it would be a big surprise if one of them didn’t win.
- Total Posts 764
Very true, I hadn’t realised Cappella Sansevero was 7/1 with racebets, that’s value right there. You’d have to say the favourite is such a short price because of the stable he’s in, they’ve had a couple of losing favourites in the last few days but seem to have picked up form since that "cough" went round. It is a good race for favourites though so probably better to back War Envoy for the Coventry (if that’s where he’ll run) at Ascot and hope he wins with again something to spare.
Though the 2nd fav did look very impressive on his debut the time wasn’t anything great (2 and a half seconds slow than standard) if my memory serves me correct and he just didn’t seem to cruise with fluidity like the O’Brien horse.
Like you said though 7/1 is great value and an e/w bet would seem obvious!
Very true, I hadn’t realised Cappella Sansevero was 7/1 with racebets, that’s value right there. You’d have to say the favourite is such a short price because of the stable he’s in, they’ve had a couple of losing favourites in the last few days but seem to have picked up form since that "cough" went round. It is a good race for favourites though so probably better to back War Envoy for the Coventry (if that’s where he’ll run) at Ascot and hope he wins with again something to spare.
Though the 2nd fav did look very impressive on his debut the time wasn’t anything great (2 and a half seconds slow than standard) if my memory serves me correct and he just didn’t seem to cruise with fluidity like the O’Brien horse.
Like you said though 7/1 is great value and an e/w bet would seem obvious!
I don’t take much notice of times to be honest which is likely one of the reasons I struggle a bit with the flat. War Envoy will probably win but if I was betting I’d be opening a Racebets account. The ground throws a spanner in the works too. Nice to see the first Rip Van Winkle colt hit the race course in the shape of Dick Whittington.
- Total Posts 764
Very true, I hadn’t realised Cappella Sansevero was 7/1 with racebets, that’s value right there. You’d have to say the favourite is such a short price because of the stable he’s in, they’ve had a couple of losing favourites in the last few days but seem to have picked up form since that "cough" went round. It is a good race for favourites though so probably better to back War Envoy for the Coventry (if that’s where he’ll run) at Ascot and hope he wins with again something to spare.
Though the 2nd fav did look very impressive on his debut the time wasn’t anything great (2 and a half seconds slow than standard) if my memory serves me correct and he just didn’t seem to cruise with fluidity like the O’Brien horse.
Like you said though 7/1 is great value and an e/w bet would seem obvious!
I don’t take much notice of times to be honest which is likely one of the reasons I struggle a bit with the flat. War Envoy will probably win but if I was betting I’d be opening a Racebets account. The ground throws a spanner in the works too. Nice to see the first Rip Van Winkle colt hit the race course in the shape of Dick Whittington.
I’ve always been bad when it comes to betting early on in the flat season whereas I’m most profitable betting early on in the jumps season. Hopefully it’s a good race that throws up some strong horses in the future as it has done in the past.
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