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Well done with your winner today Steve, keep up the good work there’s some good racing coming up this week.
Thanks Jac, It looks a good week of racing but I think I’ll leave Punchestown out of it and stick to the flat.
With the Lady Cecil first time out winner
Equitable
sure to be popular in handicap company on his second start it was no surprise to see him made favourite for the 3.05 at Yarmouth tomorrow. 2/1 is pretty skinny though, given that it was not much of a race he won last time. With Gosden and Fahey runners in opposition life won’t be easy for him but my eye was taken to an area it doesn’t usually find reliable and that is the runner of Mark Johnston,
Crowdmania
. The top weight seemed on the up this season winning three races and being short head second in the other. Not great races and they were on the all weather but it pointed to improvement from last year. I thought he was unwisely tried in hotter company last time in the Tattersalls race at Newmarket won by Magnus Maximus, where the better company and inadequate 6f seemed to be all against him and it didn’t help that he dwelt at the start. Back in a handicap and running over 2f further I’ll take a punt at 9/1 that he may bounce back. The Gosden horse ran a bit disappointingly last time and the Fahey horse is making his seasonal debut, so looks short at as low as 7/2.
Strictly speaking 9/1 should be each way material, but for me Johnston is usually boom or bust so it’s 2pt on the nose.
Good luck to all those having a go at Punchestown this week!
3.05 Yarmouth Tuesday Crowdmania 2pt 9/1 (available several firms)
I thought for a moment Crowndmania might do it but the inevitable finisher mowed him down. Still 12/1 was a decent reward for each-way punters and in particular a lot better than the fate of the lemmings who latched onto the Cecil name and saw their 7/4 fav finishing last. Poor runs too from the Gosden and Fahey runners.
-13pts but another favourite kicked into touch.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A decent card at Ascot for midweek fare and the chance to take a couple of favs on.
Russian Realm is a typical lightly race Michael Stoute colt who is going to be popular and will go off at skinny odds in a handicap. He was one of many horses who won after running in the maiden race won by Remote last May. He went down narrowly next time on soft, which is the ground he will face again tomorrow, perhaps not ideal for a seasonal debut for a stable who has started slowly this year. At as low a price as 11/8, I feel I have to take him on with the race fit Sword Of The Lord from the Michael Bell stable.
The selection has won on the surface and when he was second on his seasonal reappearance he was beaten by Memory Cloth, who has gone in again since, which never does any harm to one’s confidence. More importantly we can get 6/1 on the less fashionable looking contender.
In the earlier race on the card I am expecting improvement from the John Gosden trained Solar Magic who made an encouraging start to her career when unfancied at 16/1 behind Roger Varian’s Sea The Stars filly Hadaatha. She made up good ground late on and looked very much as if the experience and the step up to a mile would help. The soft ground may be a question mark but I want to take on the two generally ahead of her in the betting, Evita Peron and Adhwaa. Evita Peron has won her only start and probably deserves to shade favouritism but I am thinking the Gosden horse may be open to more improvement. John Hills Adhwaa has solid form but I feel she has had plenty of runs already and the stable hardly compares to the ammunition available to the Gosden outfit and at as low as 3/1 Adhwaa makes no appeal to me. With Evita Peron as low as 5/2 Fav, I’ll chance the Gosden inmate at 9/2 and hope she copes with the softer ground.
4.45 Ascot Sword Of The Lord 2pts 6/1 (Paddy Power)
3.10 Ascot Solar Magic 1pt 9/2 (several firms)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A decent card at Ascot for midweek fare and the chance to take a couple of favs on.
Russian Realm is a typical lightly race Michael Stoute colt who is going to be popular and will go off at skinny odds in a handicap. He was one of many horses who won after running in the maiden race won by Remote last May. He went down narrowly next time on soft, which is the ground he will face again tomorrow, perhaps not ideal for a seasonal debut for a stable who has started slowly this year. At as low a price as 11/8, I feel I have to take him on with the race fit Sword Of The Lord from the Michael Bell stable.
The selection has won on the surface and when he was second on his seasonal reappearance he was beaten by Memory Cloth, who has gone in again since, which never does any harm to one’s confidence. More importantly we can get 6/1 on the less fashionable looking contender.
In the earlier race on the card I am expecting improvement from the John Gosden trained Solar Magic who made an encouraging start to her career when unfancied at 16/1 behind Roger Varian’s Sea The Stars filly Hadaatha. She made up good ground late on and looked very much as if the experience and the step up to a mile would help. The soft ground may be a question mark but I want to take on the two generally ahead of her in the betting, Evita Peron and Adhwaa. Evita Peron has won her only start and probably deserves to shade favouritism but I am thinking the Gosden horse may be open to more improvement. John Hills Adhwaa has solid form but I feel she has had plenty of runs already and the stable hardly compares to the ammunition available to the Gosden outfit and at as low as 3/1 Adhwaa makes no appeal to me. With Evita Peron as low as 5/2 Fav, I’ll chance the Gosden inmate at 9/2 and hope she copes with the softer ground.
4.45 Ascot Sword Of The Lord 2pts 6/1 (Paddy Power)
3.10 Ascot Solar Magic 1pt 9/2 (several firms)
A great finish to the 3.10 race with all three of the market leaders holding a chance late on. The way the betting flip-flopped the winner Adhwaa was probably actually the value once she hit 9/2 and Solar Magic halved from my 9/2 to 9/4 at one stage. That’s racing though. Going forward I would side with beaten favourite Evita Peron, as I think she has the most physical scope of the three. I’ll be keeping an eye out for her.
The 4.45 saw a poor show from my selection Sword Of The Lord who seemed to go out too aggressively and paid the price late on. These performances remind me how far in the past the glory days of Michael Bell and Motivator actually seem to be.
The Stoute horse was weak in the betting, going from odds on in a place this morning, all the way out to 7/4. He ran well and will be of obvious interest when the stable hits better for but for today he was my lay at short odds.
-16pts but two more favourites beaten.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After a spell where very little made appeal it’s time to pick a few out for the weekend.
First port of call is the 4.25 at Newmarket where Roger Charlton has the warm favourite in Stars Above Me, who is as short as 2/1. There is no doubt she is a good prospect and could be on a good mark but first time up I want to oppose her at bigger odds and this will be with Ralph Beckett’s Perfect Alchemy. This is one of my favourite stables as I think they are still underestimated to some extent. This filly is making nice progress and I think she’s a bit of value at 11/2, having been second over course and distance before winning twice at Kempton. I suppose the slight worry will be if she has the toe on fast ground today but she seems to be going the right way.
With Kingman out to 2/1 now I have to be thinking he’s worth going with as a favourite I consider to be too big. There’s a lot of bluster about how good a renewal this is but at this stage it’s still only
potentially
a vintage turnout. At least two of the contenders are more likely Derby horses and I feel War Command has been the horse they have latched onto as each-way value in the inevitable scramble to oppose the favourite having missed the 9/1 on offer before the trials. Toormore is probably badly underestimated at 9/1 and is surely each-way material but Kingman will surely come on for his seasonal debut and after only three runs he has as much scope as any in the field. With fitness on his side and the race likely to unfold in similar fashion to the Greenham, he should cut down the front runners and claim a first 2000G for his trainer. Maximum 10pts must be applied.
For Sunday I am adding an outsider to the Lucky Kristale bet. John Gosden had three fillies entered but is now solely represented by Betimes who needs to improve greatly to figure but she has any amount of scope and at 33/1 she is worth a cheeky point in a very open looking renewal.
4.25 Newmarket Perfect Alchemy 2pt win 11/2
2000 Guineas Kingman 10pts win 2/1
1000 Guineas Betimes 1pt win 33/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After a spell where very little made appeal it’s time to pick a few out for the weekend.
First port of call is the 4.25 at Newmarket where Roger Charlton has the warm favourite in Stars Above Me, who is as short as 2/1. There is no doubt she is a good prospect and could be on a good mark but first time up I want to oppose her at bigger odds and this will be with Ralph Beckett’s Perfect Alchemy. This is one of my favourite stables as I think they are still underestimated to some extent. This filly is making nice progress and I think she’s a bit of value at 11/2, having been second over course and distance before winning twice at Kempton. I suppose the slight worry will be if she has the toe on fast ground today but she seems to be going the right way.
With Kingman out to 2/1 now I have to be thinking he’s worth going with as a favourite I consider to be too big. There’s a lot of bluster about how good a renewal this is but at this stage it’s still only
potentially
a vintage turnout. At least two of the contenders are more likely Derby horses and I feel War Command has been the horse they have latched onto as each-way value in the inevitable scramble to oppose the favourite having missed the 9/1 on offer before the trials. Toormore is probably badly underestimated at 9/1 and is surely each-way material but Kingman will surely come on for his seasonal debut and after only three runs he has as much scope as any in the field. With fitness on his side and the race likely to unfold in similar fashion to the Greenham, he should cut down the front runners and claim a first 2000G for his trainer. Maximum 10pts must be applied.
For Sunday I am adding an outsider to the Lucky Kristale bet. John Gosden had three fillies entered but is now solely represented by Betimes who needs to improve greatly to figure but she has any amount of scope and at 33/1 she is worth a cheeky point in a very open looking renewal.
4.25 Newmarket Perfect Alchemy 2pt win 11/2
2000 Guineas Kingman 10pts win 2/1
1000 Guineas Betimes 1pt win 33/1
Not a good day with maximum bet floored by 40/1 shot and a poor show from Perfect Alchemy. At least the favourite I took on at 15/8 didn’t win to put a bit more egg on the face.
This game is pretty hard, the favourites aren’t winning but I’m still paddling up cack street!
-28pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
No joy from either 1000 Guineas runners and the total rolls on to
On a brighter note Taghrooda won in style to become clear favourite for the Oaks and I have her at 33/1 for the race.Lucky Kristale ran no sort of race in the 1000 G and I am surprised the stable are staying at a mile and going for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Sir Henry Cecil used to say it was important to have a horse enjoy its job and Lucky Kristale did not enjoy her day out on Sunday. A similar experience at Royal Ascot might just put the horse off her way by the time they get her back to what she was good at last year, and that was 6f on good ground.
With the way Taghrooda came home in the Pretty Polly I had to ponder how she would have coped in the 1000G where I had a speculative small punt at 40/1. Of course it’s a shorter trip but Ithimal was talked up as more of a Mile and a Quarter horse before the race and she went pretty close to pulling it off. One thing is certain, Taghrooda couldn’t have been any worse than Betimes, who John Gosden put a dampener on before the race, informing us that she would probably need to drop back in trip next time. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the horse and it makes you wonder why they would run her if they felt she wouldn’t stay.
Talking of Fillies and John Gosden we have a potential Fav buster in the shape of the New Approach filly Bright Approach who will be taking on early favourite Terrific from the O’Brien stable in The Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday. Early odds have Terrific 7/4 and Bright Approach 11/4.
We all saw how O’Briens fillies ran in the 1000G and that has to cast a shadow of doubt over Terrific who I had considered a lively 1000G outsider before she stepped up in trip and ran a decent third behind Dazzling, effectively ending any thoughts of a trip to Newmarket over a mile.
Terrific would be the form pick but she’s had more starts than Bright Approach, who won well at Newbury on her debut. The second and third horses that day, Be My Gal and Talmada have both won since with the former winning in listed company and the latter hosing up in a maiden race by an easy seven lengths. Not all of Gosden’s early winners have gone in again on their second starts so far, some of them going off short enough, but one would normally expect improvement and at 11/4 she makes appeal against the O’Brien favourite. Going at Chester is described as Good/Good to firm and it was good to soft when Bright Approach ran at Newbury. Having said that it was soft when Terrific ran last time and it would be hard to say if there is any advantage either way regarding the surface.
2.15 Chester Wednesday Bright Approach 4pts win 11/4 (SJ/PP)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done with your 33/1 Taghrooda Steve, she looks nailed on for the The Oaks I just got a measly 3/1 after the race
.If you’d have been at the paddock for the 1000G on Sunday you would have been all over Miss France she looked amazing, and what did I do…stuck with my long term selection Vorda who looked dull in coat in comparison and I’d said right from last September that I thought a French filly would win the 1000 Guineas. Should have done them both. That’s racing
Must write 100 times
When Andre Fabre comes to Newmarket he means business.
Could see nothing wrong with the O’Brien fillies in the paddock on the day but at the moment you don’t get a sense of confidence coming from the O’Brien yard apart from for their Derby hope Australia.
Keep smiling
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Jac, I used to be a big follower of Andre Fabre when he came across the Channel for group 1 races but my feeling in recent seasons has been that he wasn’t quite doing the business the way he once did. Maybe I need to reassess that.
Looking at the Chester classic trials I don’t get the feeling that there are Derby winners lurking in the fields and Aiden will do well to match last year when Magician and Ruler Of The World announced their presence in the Derby reckoning.
I see my Derby longshot Munjaz has an entry in the Lingfield Derby Trial on Saturday and it would make sense to keep him and Western Hymn apart with the latter going for the Dante. Munjaz will need to improve for his debut this season and a mile and a half will be what he needs at least. Two winners have emerged from the mid division finishers in the maiden race Munjaz won and that never goes wrong from the form aspect. I can see Munjaz being a serious St Leger contender and will keep an eye on him for that one. Meanwhile he’s 50/1 for Epsom and a win in the Lingfield trial would surely see that price cut in half.
A speculative bet for the weekend for me is Horsted Keynes at 10/1 for the Victoria Cup on Saturday. He’s fav at the moment in a wide open affair but I can see him starting a fair bit shorter as a lightly raced Roger Varian horse who has been tried only at the 7f trip thus far. He has won four from six at the trip and although he seemed an all weather type, he came through on the bit at Yarmouth to win readily on his first attempt on turf. Surely scope for improvement there and punters seem to latch onto Varian runners, so this Giant’s Causeway gelding may be shorter by Saturday.
Be lucky people!
Victoria Cup Ascot Saturday. Horsted Keynes 2pts 10/1 (Widely Available)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A speculative bet for the weekend for me is Horsted Keynes at 10/1 for the Victoria Cup on Saturday. He’s fav at the moment in a wide open affair but I can see him starting a fair bit shorter as a lightly raced Roger Varian horse who has been tried only at the 7f trip thus far. He has won four from six at the trip and although he seemed an all weather type, he came through on the bit at Yarmouth to win readily on his first attempt on turf. Surely scope for improvement there and punters seem to latch onto Varian runners, so this Giant’s Causeway gelding may be shorter by Saturday.
Be lucky people!
Victoria Cup Ascot Saturday. Horsted Keynes 2pts 10/1 (Widely Available)
Like him a lot Stevie, think he’s better than this company and only masquerading as a handicapper. Varian’s obviously taking his time with him and feels the softly softly approach may pay dividends. For that reason I’d be inclined to oppose him on Saturday as it’s his first outing in a big field handicap. He’s definitely one to keep on the right side of though. All the best with him Saturday.
On a different note, the fact that in six starts he’s been sent off no bigger than 7/4 shows he’s held in a fair bit of regard. He’ll be in group races by the end of the year imo.
Like him a lot Stevie, think he’s better than this company and only masquerading as a handicapper. Varian’s obviously taking his time with him and feels the softly softly approach may pay dividends. For that reason I’d be inclined to oppose him on Saturday as it’s his first outing in a big field handicap. He’s definitely one to keep on the right side of though. All the best with him Saturday.
Boz, the big field will be all new to him but he travelled well last time and my old Dad used to tell me to watch out for 7f specialists as it sits between true sprinters and true milers. No doubt the draw will play a factor and luck is needed as well. Andrew Balding’s Purcell is shaping as a possible 7f horse as well and he would be an each-way suggestion at least.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ll be looking out for Munjaz on Saturday and this season Steve, have a lot of respect for this horse and he is on my watch list too having dotted up for me at the Craven Meeting Newmarket.
Good luck, always enjoy reading your posts JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Bright Approach got going all too late and didn’t like Chester. She still performed with a lot more credit than Terrific, who looks an expensive bust based on her showing today with the blinkers back on and she was another bad fav for the lemmings to plunge on today.
-35pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just an update on favs taken on through this thread. I make it 12 taken on with 11 beaten and one winning. Maybe there’s more money in laying these favs!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thursday sees the potential D-Day for Telescope, who has been a horse more of reputation and expectation, rather than actual achievement so far. With his much needed comeback run behind him there will be little hiding place if he fails tomorrow at Chester.
He meets Noble Mission again and has a fair bit to catch up but Timeform are tipping him to reverse the form on this occasion. Noble Mission is shading favouritism here and I am going to take them both on with Roger Varian’s Ektihaam at 7/2 or better. This horse cost me a lot when he slipped when well clear in The Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. Previous to that he had looked to improve for a more aggressive ride and his final race of the season was best forgotten, as he ran well below his best in the Diamond stakes.
Tactics will be interesting as Noble Mission appeared to show a penchant for making the running when slamming Telescope last time. Will they run the guts out of each other and leave Telescope to come through or will one dominate and make the most of the sharp track?
Tight to call but I prefer Ektihaam marginally at the odds.
The Chester Vase probably won’t throw up the Derby winner like it did last year. Aiden O Brien fields two with current fav Carlo Bugatti ridden by Joseph and Orchestra ridden by Ryan Moore. Carlo is fitted with blinkers already and that looks a worrying sign. He was only 4th in the Ballysax last time and although it was soft that day I have concerns regarding the overall standard of the Ballydoyle horses this season. Orchestra has potential but has only won a maiden at 4/11 so far and he steps up in distance quite a lot on his seasonal debut. 4/1 is short enough given some modest runs from some high profile stablemates.
I’m looking for a decent price and Seagull Star from the Haggas stable is a contender. By Sea The Stars he ran well in the Tattersalls Millions at Newmarket when finishing third, a few places ahead of Racing Post Trophy runner up, and race favourite, Johann Strauss. His odds are not quite high enough to tempt me though, with the Haggas stable not quite firing on all cylinders yet.
A chance is taken on the Mark Johnston trained Stars Over The Sea. Another son of Sea The Stars, he is said to have less scope for improvement having had more runs last season. I thought he ran a decent race when third in the Investec Derby trial at Epsom, where I was all over his stablemate Hartnell, who disappointed the trainer in 5th. I expect Stars Over The Sea to improve and he wouldn’t be the first Mark Johnston horse to set the pace and keep going when better fancied ones haven’t read the script and can’t catch the leader.
Thursday Chester 2.15 Ektihaam 4pts win 7/2 (or better)
Thursday Chester 2.45 Stars Over The Sea 2pts (10/1 or better)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good write up of the Huxley Steve. I’ve probably done the wrong thing by backing Ektihaam @ 3/1 (missed 7/2), might be that price again tomorrow morning. If the slip up hasn’t dented his enthusiasm and if fit on reappearance (Varian going better now) – should take some beating. More consistent than his two main rivals.
Good point about pace. Noble Mission has looked a bit of a dog in the past, had everything go right last time. May not be able to get the easy lead that suited so well at Sandown. Driven along after not being that well out of the gate to get to the front, in a race with soft early fractions and nobody else wanting the lead. So will need to get out a lot better tomorrow, especially from a wider draw than Ektihaam or another possible pace/prominent horse Highland Knight.
Timeform might have "tipped" Telescope (I’d have agreed with them at the time they tipped him). But that was before the rain. It wouldn’t surprise me if Stoutey withdraws Telescope if they get too much. Might have another worthy excuse if taking part.
Value Is EverythingThanks Ginger, I’m still a bit wary about Stoute and I just feel Telescope has to prove something yet. It’s not that the stable is rank, they are not far from getting there, I just feel that horses like Integral would have won with a bit in hand had the stable been somewhere near the top of their game.
I was pondering Aljamaaheer for the Duke Of York next week, having felt he put in a decent first time show this year. He’s a horse with a bit of class and the scope to fare well in the sprinting game. The day I thought about backing him, the 9/1 had gone and I decided to leave it for now.
There’s a lack of solid and consistent performers in the sprinting game and this Pearl Secret is readily passed over for me at the same odds. I just never was as excited as some were about him.
Hot Streak could be good later in the year but I’d want to take him on just now.
Jack Dexter at 12/1 is laughable for me, I don’t think he possesses anything like the pace required.
Moviesta was good to me last year before flopping on his final start. The trainer says he had a problem that day. He ran a good debut race behind Sole Power last time, making a decent burst near the end to come through for fifth from quite far back. Bryan Smart said he’d improve a good bit for the first race of the season and at 14/1 I might have a wee go at him. With a win at York and a narrow second, where I thought the jockey could have timed it slightly better, his course form looks good if you overlook the day something was amiss. He’s won at 6f and 5f and seems versatile regarding the ground, he went from 83 to 113 in the ratings last year and if finding a smidgin of improvement this year will surely find a nice prize somewhere. There’s a fair amount of chaff entered and I think he could place at least.
Hell, I’ve just convinced myself to have a bet.
Duke Of York Stakes Moviesta 1pt win 14/1 (Boyle Sports)
I won’t jinx your bet with a saver on Aljamaaheer!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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