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I will be very disappointed if she doesn’t run well and I’ll stick 4pts on at 6/1.
7.20 Windsor Hannahs Turn 4pts 6/1
The ground ended up on the soft side and was totally different to the fast conditions she encountered when winning well at Haydock. That’s racing for you though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
John Smiths Magnet Cup on Saturday at York and the usual competitive field.
Michael Stoute’s Bold Sniper is skinny enough fav with some firms and makes little appeal at as low as 5/1 after just failing to justify even shorter odds of 2/1 in The Wolferton at Ascot. Not one for me.
My old pal Clever Cookie, who made a bit heavy weather of getting up to dead-heat last time looks a better bet at up to double the odds of the Stoute horse. He’s going up the weights now though and that may have been a hard race last time.
The selection here is John Gosden’s Nabucco, who is a son of an old favourite of mine Cape Verdi, who I backed for the 1000 Guineas before she ever set foot on a racecourse. This fellow has been very consistent and ran a good race on his seasonal debut. The stable is in great form again now and he looks a classic lay out for this race. I expected him to be a single figure price with so many positives about him but we can get 12/1, so it’s time to step in. He looks very solid each-way for the casual punter but I have the greed of the pig and like all my money on at the win odds
Magnet Cup York Saturday Nabucco 3pts 12/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
QUEENSBURY RULES 14/1 to deliver the knockout punch as headline writers will say on sunday well i hope they do.What chance you give him mate
QUEENSBURY RULES 14/1 to deliver the knockout punch as headline writers will say on sunday well i hope they do.What chance you give him mate
I don’t fancy him at all Darren. Seems to have lost his way after a promising start and he hasn’t won at this trip either. The stable had their best winner for a while last week but I am struggling to see why the horse is 14/1 to be honest.
ps Jamie Spencer is on board
Good luck if you have backed him though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With the ground getting soft at Newmarket it is time to get in on Integral before she shrivels in price. It is not so much that she will like the ground but more of a case of it going against main betting rivals Sky Lantern and Rizeena, whose stamina will be a big question on mud.
It’s a near maximum for me with the ground a slight concern for the selection but not as much as for the next two in the market.
Falmouth Stakes Integral 8pts 7/4 (Bet Victor)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice performance from Ivawood today and he seems a horse going places. Richard Hannon has said he’s their stand out 2yo and thinks he is a similar grade and style to Toronado. When they have said similar before they have not been far away and it is worth taking it seriously.
Therefore it is time for 5pts on for the 2000 Guineas, because if he wins again the odds will tumble. John Gosden’s Faydhan still has to bridge the gap to group company and the Hannon horse looks the better value on what we has seen so far. 20/1 will be skinny to some eyes but these bookies usually go only one way with the betting on these ante post books, so unless the horse loses a leg, we are unlikely to see bigger odds.
2000 Guineas Ivawood 5pts 20/1 (Racebets)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With the ground now soft at Newmarket it gives my old pal Gregorian and failed nap Hot Streak a chance of being on their best surface. The trip will be arguably short for Gregorian and perhaps farther than ideal for Hot Streak. Slade Power is looking strong here but a pt each on the other 2 seems appropriate for a saver.
July Cup Gregorian 1pt win 20/1 Hot Streak 1pt 10/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nabucco has been pulled out now, so we will eat that loss and have 3pts on original second pick Clever Cookie at 10/1
This horse is climbing the weights but he shouldn’t be short of stamina having been over hurdles and that could help him in the closing stages today, the fav Bold Sniper is too short for me.
As expected Horsted Keynes has been declared a non-runner. It seemed simple enough to predict for me, as he had been pulled out the last time it was soft, yet well known pundits were tipping him up and really should have known this was going to happen.
I think the drop in trip will help Michael Stoute’s Abseil in this race. He has looked progressive prior to a poorish run when he didn’t settle when red-hot favourite for The Royal Hunt Cup and I prefer him to Wokingham flop Absolutely So. This fellow will find the 7f more to his liking but combined with the softer ground it will be a lot different test and I will leave him. Ertijaal won a couple of Lingfield contests before, not surprisingly, being out of his depth in the 2000 Guineas. I could see him appealing to some punters now he’s dropped in class but any stamina issue may resurface on this softer ground and he has a bit to prove after a while on the sidelines.
Bunbury Cup Abseil 4pts 6/1
Magnet Cup Clever Cookie 3pts 10/1
1pt Double the two
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve been humming and hawing about Kingsgate Native today. He doesn’t win as often as you would hope but he is dropped to listed class today, his easiest grade in some time. Second in the Coral Charge to the improving Extortionist was decent last time and there is no doubt he could have carried this opposition in his pomp. Ryan Moore is a bonus in the saddle and if anyone can drive this fellow home it’s him.
G Force is vying for favouritism and was fast improving before a third when hot favourite last time. He’s the younger, sexier new kid on the block but at as low as 7/4 he’s too skinny.
There is a form line through Wind Fire, who beat G Force but then ran behind Kingsgate Native in the Coral Charge that ties the form pretty close between today’s 1st two in the betting.
I’ll go for the old boy and stick 6pts on at 5/2
3.30 York Kingsgate Native 6pts 5/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nabucco has been pulled out now, so we will eat that loss and have 3pts on original second pick Clever Cookie at 10/1
This horse is climbing the weights but he shouldn’t be short of stamina having been over hurdles and that could help him in the closing stages today, the fav Bold Sniper is too short for me.
As expected Horsted Keynes has been declared a non-runner. It seemed simple enough to predict for me, as he had been pulled out the last time it was soft, yet well known pundits were tipping him up and really should have known this was going to happen.
I think the drop in trip will help Michael Stoute’s Abseil in this race. He has looked progressive prior to a poorish run when he didn’t settle when red-hot favourite for The Royal Hunt Cup and I prefer him to Wokingham flop Absolutely So. This fellow will find the 7f more to his liking but combined with the softer ground it will be a lot different test and I will leave him. Ertijaal won a couple of Lingfield contests before, not surprisingly, being out of his depth in the 2000 Guineas. I could see him appealing to some punters now he’s dropped in class but any stamina issue may resurface on this softer ground and he has a bit to prove after a while on the sidelines.
Bunbury Cup Abseil 4pts 6/1
Magnet Cup Clever Cookie 3pts 10/1
1pt Double the two
Clever Cookie never had a chance from right out the back and he stayed on past beaten horses. Perhaps the ground was just too fast for him today but it wasn’t a very inspiring ride when you consider fast ground and the track were going to make it hard to come from well back.
See signature for details.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nabucco has been pulled out now, so we will eat that loss and have 3pts on original second pick Clever Cookie at 10/1
This horse is climbing the weights but he shouldn’t be short of stamina having been over hurdles and that could help him in the closing stages today, the fav Bold Sniper is too short for me.
As expected Horsted Keynes has been declared a non-runner. It seemed simple enough to predict for me, as he had been pulled out the last time it was soft, yet well known pundits were tipping him up and really should have known this was going to happen.
I think the drop in trip will help Michael Stoute’s Abseil in this race. He has looked progressive prior to a poorish run when he didn’t settle when red-hot favourite for The Royal Hunt Cup and I prefer him to Wokingham flop Absolutely So. This fellow will find the 7f more to his liking but combined with the softer ground it will be a lot different test and I will leave him. Ertijaal won a couple of Lingfield contests before, not surprisingly, being out of his depth in the 2000 Guineas. I could see him appealing to some punters now he’s dropped in class but any stamina issue may resurface on this softer ground and he has a bit to prove after a while on the sidelines.
Bunbury Cup Abseil 4pts 6/1
Magnet Cup Clever Cookie 3pts 10/1
1pt Double the two
Clever Cookie never had a chance from right out the back and he stayed on past beaten horses. Perhaps the ground was just too fast for him today but it wasn’t a very inspiring ride when you consider fast ground and the track were going to make it hard to come from well back.
See signature for details.
Ertijaal set off far too fast and had no chance of getting home. Abseil should have been suited by chasing the fast pace at the shorter trip but he ran absolutely appallingly, the first horse beaten, and clearly has to have a question mark about him after that.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve been humming and hawing about Kingsgate Native today. He doesn’t win as often as you would hope but he is dropped to listed class today, his easiest grade in some time. Second in the Coral Charge to the improving Extortionist was decent last time and there is no doubt he could have carried this opposition in his pomp. Ryan Moore is a bonus in the saddle and if anyone can drive this fellow home it’s him.
G Force is vying for favouritism and was fast improving before a third when hot favourite last time. He’s the younger, sexier new kid on the block but at as low as 7/4 he’s too skinny.
There is a form line through Wind Fire, who beat G Force but then ran behind Kingsgate Native in the Coral Charge that ties the form pretty close between today’s 1st two in the betting.
I’ll go for the old boy and stick 6pts on at 5/2
3.30 York Kingsgate Native 6pts 5/2
Wrong decision and one of those days. The King looks gone at the game and time to hang up the shoes with him on today’s showing.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Usual Monday fare and time to declare War in the 7.00 at Windsor.
I couldn’t find a price for War Alert last night but am happy enough to back her at 7/4 with Stan James.
These maidens are often filled with promising types but it usually turns out that experience counts and War Alert was fancied when only third last time. I expect better tonight and this expensive daughter of War Front is entered in The Lowther so must have shown something. I think the drop to 5f may help after she flattened out a bit over 6f last time. I’ll be disappointed if she can’t show improvement and win this.
7.00 Windsor War Alert 8pts 7/4 (Stan James)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Usual Monday fare and time to declare War in the 7.00 at Windsor.
I couldn’t find a price for War Alert last night but am happy enough to back her at 7/4 with Stan James.
These maidens are often filled with promising types but it usually turns out that experience counts and War Alert was fancied when only third last time. I expect better tonight and this expensive daughter of War Front is entered in The Lowther so must have shown something. I think the drop to 5f may help after she flattened out a bit over 6f last time. I’ll be disappointed if she can’t show improvement and win this.
7.00 Windsor War Alert 8pts 7/4 (Stan James)
A generous SP, perhaps due to the Fav not being the most imposing individual in the paddock. I am not sure she has much physical scope and although she may improve again, I have doubts that the Lowther would be a realistic target based on what we have seen thus far. A welcome winner though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Modest fare on offer today and just the one horse that catches the eye.
Lees Anthem isn’t the greatest horse by any stretch but in a race that doesn’t look like it would take a lot of winning the top weight has put in a few decent, consistent, looking runs of late and you would be a bit disappointed if he couldn’t at least grab a place. He is 6/1, which is each-way material but porky pig here needs the full stake on to win. He is blinkered for the first time today and if that wrings any improvement at all, it will be a nice boost to his chance.
2.30 Beverley Lees Anthem 2pts at 6/1 (several firms)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Modest fare on offer today and just the one horse that catches the eye.
Lees Anthem isn’t the greatest horse by any stretch but in a race that doesn’t look like it would take a lot of winning the top weight has put in a few decent, consistent, looking runs of late and you would be a bit disappointed if he couldn’t at least grab a place. He is 6/1, which is each-way material but porky pig here needs the full stake on to win. He is blinkered for the first time today and if that wrings any improvement at all, it will be a nice boost to his chance.
2.30 Beverley Lees Anthem 2pts at 6/1 (several firms)
Withdrawn, so no bet today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking ahead to the Stewards Cup and I have picked out a horse that ticks a lot of boxes.
Discussiontofollow is a bit of a mouthful and probably had no chance of getting into the race until he hit an upward curve in the rankings. Starting at 68 in the ratings, he has risen to a mark of 96, thus giving him a chance of being one of the 113 entered who actually make the race.
The horse has run 8 times, winning 4 with a second and three thirds in the others. He started on the all weather but then ran good thirds in a Windsor Handicap and then in the Paddy Power Scurry, a £60,000 handicap at the Curragh, where he finished ahead of regular sprint handicap contestant Alben Star.
He then went on to Ascot, for another 60 grand race where he dropped to 5f and just held on to win and defy his draw in stall one, in a race where higher numbers generally performed better. Having sufficient pace to win at 5f suggests that a sharp 6f at Goodwood should be fine. He needs quick ground and the draw is always an unknown but the odds will collapse if those factors turn favourably.
The horse has never been worse than third, is lightly raced, improving and tends to travel well in his races. Future winners have come from all his races and he has run well/won in big fields.
I’ll take a punt at 14/1 in a race where, despite the huge field, several will shrivel in to single figures by flag fall.
Stewards Cup Discussiontofollow 3pts 14/1 (Ladbrokes and others)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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