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Can Lightning strike twice Steve? This
Faydhan
goes 16/1 fav for the 2000gns after his Haydock debut today…..A ‘War Front’ Colt doesn’t exactly inspire confidence from me seeing how we still dont know
War commands
ideal trip add the fact the Dam ‘Speightstown’ hasn’t thrown anything of note and the likes of
Lord Shanakil
and
Tropics
weren’t milers I just doubt this fellow is a miler.Whats the pretender to my illustrious crown think?
Gord only bet i had ante post for classics is SIR ISAAC NEWTON to win epsom derby next year. when you consider both GLENEAGLES
and HIGHLAND REEL were nice winners and neither of them are above this unraced horse for derby.Tells me that this horse could be very good not a 2000 guineas horse but derby he is.Gord i left you in messages in your different approach thread and still not got a reply hope i do now.Also Gosden not be happy with 2yo winning maiden today and being made fav for 2000 guineas
Gord and Steve what your thoughts on st leger and any thoughts on
FOREVER NOW 20/1 looks a strong stayer to me and could improve lots more as year goes on.Sorry Darren,I must say I was taken with
Gleneagles
,he would be the best 2yo I’ve seen thus far,he already looks like a Racing post trophy type to me.This half brother to
Secret Gesture
,
Sir Isaac Newton
certainly ticks the Ante-Post Derby boxes if you think he can do an
Australia
.Sadly lightning rarely strikes twice Darren.Good Luck all the same I love a bit of foresight and you certainly have that mate.
ThisHighland Reel
already looks a Leger horse to me for next year,he has an unraced 3yo full brother which concerns me as to why?
Gord and Steve what your thoughts on st leger and any thoughts on
FOREVER NOW 20/1 looks a strong stayer to me and could improve lots more as year goes on.Munjaz and Eagle Top were my early Leger picks Darren but they both disappointed on their second starts. Eagle Top got back on track but is probably, ironically, too good for the Leger. Munjaz’s maiden win worked out quite well and he was reported to be going well on the gallops before his next start but he ran as if something was wrong next time. Paul Hanagan had nominated him as his one to follow this year so maybe he’ll bounce back somewhere.
I had a wee punt on Orchestra as I thought he might be one of those O’Brien horses just short of top class at a mile and a half and who then goes on to make a name for himself over further. He’s clearly well behind Australia but that horse won’t make the journey to Donny. Finally, I had a pop on Kingston Hill as it is hard to erase the way he came home in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last year. Maybe he won’t stay but he’s got plenty class for the race (if perhaps too much, like Eagle Top)
Forever Now looks like he’ll get the Leger trip standing on his head but he needs to improve a fair bit. His trouble may be the strength in depth of the Gosden contenders for this season’s final classic.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can Lightning strike twice Steve? This
Faydhan
goes 16/1 fav for the 2000gns after his Haydock debut today…..A ‘War Front’ Colt doesn’t exactly inspire confidence from me seeing how we still dont know
War commands
ideal trip add the fact the Dam ‘Speightstown’ hasn’t thrown anything of note and the likes of
Lord Shanakil
and
Tropics
weren’t milers I just doubt this fellow is a miler.Whats the pretender to my illustrious crown think?
I haven’t seen a colt I have confidence in yet Gord. I flung a couple of quid at US Navy Seal as I heard he was more of a long term War Front prospect for the O’Brien team. He made his debut at 7f, which I thought was a good sign long term and he was well backed, although I suspected he’d need the race. He seemed to travel fine in front but when asked to go and win the race he fell into a hole and was allowed to coast home in last of 7. He cost $800000 so you would think there will be more to come in time but it was disappointing to say the least.
The 2000G is the race Gosden can’t seem to get right. He never seems to have one good enough or ready in time. This year was his best chance and he managed to see his horse find a way to lose. This Faydhan hosed up but did he beat much? The Gimcrack is not a stepping stone I personally like for classic contenders but this fellow may be going there.
I read early in the year that both the 3yo and 2yo inmates of the Gosden yard were above average this year and the first half of that has turned out to be true. Richard Pankhurst and today’s winner are suggesting the second half of the equation may have substance to it. I’ll wait a while before a serious move on the colts. For now I’m firmly behind Andre Fabre’s Al Namaah in the fillies division. She’s built like a 3yo already.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ll give another chance to Mukhmal in the 2.30 at Sandown today. He looked a speedy sort when overcoming a supposedly bad draw at Chester. He then ran in The Norfolk at Royal Ascot and seemed to be ridden suicidally aggressively that day and faded into sixth.
Main opponent seems to be Beacon, who is improving for the Hannon stable but steps up a bit here. He will be the one to cash in if the Johnston horse burns himself out early but I am hoping a sensible pace will be set and that Mukhmal will be hard to catch today.
2.30 Sandown Mukhmal 6pts 9/4
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ll give another chance to Mukhmal in the 2.30 at Sandown today. He looked a speedy sort when overcoming a supposedly bad draw at Chester. He then ran in The Norfolk at Royal Ascot and seemed to be ridden suicidally aggressively that day and faded into sixth.
Main opponent seems to be Beacon, who is improving for the Hannon stable but steps up a bit here. He will be the one to cash in if the Johnston horse burns himself out early but I am hoping a sensible pace will be set and that Mukhmal will be hard to catch today.
2.30 Sandown Mukhmal 6pts 9/4
The Hannon horse is clearly making swift progress and Johnston’s colt may not be making the same improvement. Always a slight possibility with this in and out stable.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Two for Saturday.
2.40 Sandown and Russian Realm is taken to go much closer than he did from a modest draw when favourite at Royal Ascot. Still scope to improve and the stable has been in better form than they have for a couple of years. 11/2 is probably about as big as he’ll get.
Over at Haydock and The Old Newton Cup sees Havana Cooler all the rage. He’s plenty short enough and is opposed with another progressive horse in Magic Hurricane, who I think will be suited by a big field and a strongly run race. 6/1 is about fair.
2.40 Sandown Russian Realm 4pts win 11/2
3.30 Haydock Magic Hurricane 4pts win 6/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Two for Saturday.
2.40 Sandown and Russian Realm is taken to go much closer than he did from a modest draw when favourite at Royal Ascot. Still scope to improve and the stable has been in better form than they have for a couple of years. 11/2 is probably about as big as he’ll get.
Over at Haydock and The Old Newton Cup sees Havana Cooler all the rage. He’s plenty short enough and is opposed with another progressive horse in Magic Hurricane, who I think will be suited by a big field and a strongly run race. 6/1 is about fair.
2.40 Sandown Russian Realm 4pts win 11/2
3.30 Haydock Magic Hurricane 4pts win 6/1
Two perfectly respectable runs in third place. I think Russian Realm may be better at 7f than a mile.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Lancashire Oaks at Haydock and a chance the ante-post fav Seal Of Approval won’t run. Trainer James Fanshawe says she will only run if it rains a good bit and that will leave Oaks winner from last season Talent as near favourite.
John Gosden is often the man to follow in this race but he complicates matters by running two. One would assume Rab Havlin would have first choice and he is on Sultanina, who is two for two but both were narrow wins. I took a liking to Pomology last year and it has been a while since she stepped up to win in Gp 3 company in France, taking her to 3 from 3. Graham Lee rides her and I narrowly prefer her despite the lack of a run this season. 13/2 is her current price and I would expect that to contract if the vibes are right.
Lancashire Oaks, Haydock Saturday 2pts 13/2
Tonight at Epsom I am expecting top weight Jakey to take the beating, he is down in grade a bit and should go very close in this company. A general second favourite to Lilac Tree this morning he has been nibbled in slightly and it may be close as to who goes off fav by flag fall. I’ll try 4pts at 3/1
8.20 Epsom Jakey 4pts 3/1
Two winners for a change. Money for Seal Of Approval meant Pomology went off a generous 8/1. John Gosden said she hasn’t been working that well, so there may be more to come from this unbeaten filly.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Coral Charge has reduced in size to a manageable size with 13 declared at the moment. Pearl Secret is out now and I would have thought needs slower ground to make a mark in the group level sprints.
Steps is fighting for favouritism with Stepper Point and Ahtoug but I’ll take a pop at twice the general odds of that trio with 3yo Extortionist.
The selection didn’t show much on his first couple of starts this year and I feared he might not have trained on, however he dispelled those fears with a win in a class 2 handicap at Newmarket before going on to a narrow defeat in a group 3 sprint at The Curragh at the hands of Fountain Of Youth who prevailed late on by a head.
Extortionist travelled well for much of his last race and could be one of the potential improvers in the field. A decent draw in stall 4 and the imperious Ryan Moore on his back gives plenty to be positive about, even if the ratings say he has a little bit to find with some of the field.
Coral Charge Extortionist 2pts 10/1
Straightforward enough for Extortionist, who is improving. He is being aimed at Goodwood and as long as the ground is fast he is worth bearing in mind.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Kingston Hill was short of pace in The Eclipse and hopefully Roger Varian will take the hint that there is a St Leger to be won with this horse.
The Leger betting is populated by some who won’t be running and others who won’t stay. It’s not 100% certain Kingston Hill will get the trip but he won with any amount of ease at the track over a mile on soft ground and that would give hope he will be OK.
Paddy Power go 10/1 whilst most bookies have clipped him in with the increased chance he will actually line up. That price is at least double what he will be if coming under orders, so it’s time to double the bet.
St Leger Kingston Hill 5pts win 10/1 Paddy Power
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There was a late sixties movie called If It’s Tuesday This Must Be Belgium. With racing it is a saying that If It’s Monday There Must Be Windsor.
Just one horse catches my eye today and she runs in the 7.20 at Windsor this evening.
The race is a typically open looking sprint handicap where it is 5/1 the field but looking through it further there are very few coming into it in form. Port Alfred is favourite for Charlie Appleby’s stable but ran very poorly last time and has question marks for me, as a very rare backer of Godolphin runners generally.
Hannahs Turn seems better on the all weather but was a ready winner at Haydock last time for today’s jockey. Raised 7lbs for that, it still leaves her lower than her best all weather ratings. Though you could argue that she may not be as good on turf, it is worth following a horse who seems to have found some form and it is notable that although she has run at 6 and 7 furlongs, this 5f trip is noticeably her best rate of return with 3 wins from 6 runs. The fourth horse in the Haydock race has won since, which never hurts and at 4 years of age time is on the side of the selection.
I will be very disappointed if she doesn’t run well and I’ll stick 4pts on at 6/1.
7.20 Windsor Hannahs Turn 4pts 6/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done Steve nice winners you had there.
Any thoughts on Newmarket this week.So far SKY LANTERN 5/2 and
HORSTED KEYNES 8/1 i backed so far.Cheers Darren, I was on Horsted Keynes last time he ran and was convinced he would have won had Spencer kept him a little closer to the pace. I did think about backing him for The Bunbury Cup when he was 11/1 because it is pretty certain that punters will get behind the horse deemed to be unlucky last time out.
Horsted Keynes is 8/1 now but I don’t think I will back him if Spencer is on board again. If he is held up in a big field he could end up coming too late again and that is assuming he doesn’t meet trouble in running and we don’t know the draw factor yet. I will leave it because by the time we have all the information, I feel he will be a ridiculous price.
I can see Sky Lantern going close in the Falmouth but I was taken by Integral in their last race. The Stoute horse looks to hold more potential improvement and her only modest run came at 10f. It looks to be firmly between the two heading the betting and I am sure both camps will have their followers.
Integral for me though but at less than 9/4 I probably won’t be a player.
Good luck with your bets though.
Arab Spring looks the improver but he is 7/4 for the Prince Of Wales and that is a bit skinny, even if it is hard to get enthused about many of the others in the race.
I like Slade Power in the July Cup, he looks better than ever this year and was value for a bit more at Royal Ascot. He seems champion in waiting material to me and I think he’ll take the beating.
I am making him my nap of the meeting and it is 10pts on at 3/1, which is drying up as we speak.
July Cup Slade Power 10pts 3/1 (Coral Sky Bet)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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