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You don’t want to touch the prices and that is fair enough but I suspect you wouldn’t have backed Taghrooda for the Oaks in December at 33/1 when I did. You can call it a flash in the pan but I have landed several of these bets over the years. I had Kingman at 9/1 for Newmarket and it looks like that was one we’ll be asking how the F*&$ did that get beat? in the future. Last year I had Ruler Of The World 25/1 and seconds at 25/1 in the form of Just The Judge and Secret Gesture in the classics.
At such odds it is, of course, a dream but these dreams have been coming true on occasion.
I don’t think it does anyone any favours going down the I am better than you route. Yes, I didn’t back Taghrooda at 33/1. I used to have too many speculative bets and have tried my best to reduce them. Instead I backed her at 4/1 and a couple of times at 5/1. Happy enough with that and my comments on the Oaks thread were I believe pretty confident and accurate. I backed Frankel at 16/1 for 2,000 and Kingman at 20/1. That doesn’t make me a genius, just someone who can get it right and be unlucky now and again. Ante-post betting is a very difficult game and bookmakers are not exactly full of charity. It is an achievement in itself to actually get your horse to the race.
Good luck.
You don’t want to touch the prices and that is fair enough but I suspect you wouldn’t have backed Taghrooda for the Oaks in December at 33/1 when I did. You can call it a flash in the pan but I have landed several of these bets over the years. I had Kingman at 9/1 for Newmarket and it looks like that was one we’ll be asking how the F*&$ did that get beat? in the future. Last year I had Ruler Of The World 25/1 and seconds at 25/1 in the form of Just The Judge and Secret Gesture in the classics.
At such odds it is, of course, a dream but these dreams have been coming true on occasion.
I don’t think it does anyone any favours going down the I am better than you route. Yes, I didn’t back Taghrooda at 33/1. I used to have too many speculative bets and have tried my best to reduce them. Instead I backed her at 4/1 and a couple of times at 5/1. Happy enough with that and my comments on the Oaks thread were I believe pretty confident and accurate. I backed Frankel at 16/1 for 2,000 and Kingman at 20/1. That doesn’t make me a genius, just someone who can get it right and be unlucky now and again. Ante-post betting is a very difficult game and bookmakers are not exactly full of charity. It is an achievement in itself to actually get your horse to the race.
Good luck.
I mentioned Taghrooda purely because of the way you dismissed my bets as a dream, rather than giving them any credibility. I don’t think there was any need for that.
Ante-Post betting is tricky but I have had a good rate of return over the last 20 years. I’ve only been posting here for two years but have had winners at 33/1 and 25/1, places at 9/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 66/1 in the Classics, advised Excess Knowledge at 25/1 for the St Leger and Night Of Thunder was selected as the danger for the 2000G although I only backed him in a forecast with Kingman, such was the confidence in the Gosden horse.
These are just the facts and have nothing to do with me being better than anyone else, it is put forward just to display that, in my opinion, it is more than just taking pot luck and dreaming of a winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Tomorrow’s 8.35 at Newbury sees a 2/2 William Haggas horse trading as hot favourite in a handicap.
The usual "could be anything" is applicable for My Spirit but at as skinny as 7/4 I want to oppose her.
It is her second race which gives encouragement, when she was sent off 1/2 in a handicap and landed the odds by a length. The trouble with that race is that it looked a pretty awful affair beforehand and the form could hardly be working out worse.
I’ll side with Michael Stoute’s New Approach filly Asyad, who got off the mark on her second attempt at Yarmouth on the soft and she should surely be feasible off 76 here having an entry in the Irish Oaks and running for a team in its best form for a long time. Frankie rides and 5/1 looks worth a go.
8.35 Newbury Tuesday Asyad 4pts 5/1 Bet Victor
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Special bet mug’s treble:-
6.55 Secret Spirit 2/1
8.00 Glebe Spirit 4/1
8.35 My Spirit 13/8
1pt treble may the Spirit be with you my son.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Two out of three with the treble and Frankie totally out-ridden by Ryan Moore on the main bet. Held a good advantage in the closing stages but mown down by the best jockey in the business.
Weak Frankie, Powerful Weak.
ps Photo not through yet but we all know the story!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Irish Derby time and a very small field. I have a feeling Kingston Hill won’t run here and with that in mind it’s time to try a bet in the "Without Australia" market.
Fascinating Rock was said not to be suited by Epsom and the trainer is hopeful he can put up a better show back in The Emerald Isle. Geoffrey Chaucer is rated about the same chance here despite running like a car with a flat tyre in The Derby.
Weld’s horse looks the more reliable option and it won’t matter if Australia wins ten lengths, as long as Fascinating Rock is 2nd. There is also the chance Kingston Hill could run and we’d still collect but obviously that will be harder. At 4/1 I think it’s worth the risk.
Irish Derby without Australia betting Fascinating Rock 5pt 4/1 (Racebets)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just two for Newmarket in a busy day’s racing.
William Haggas’ Battalion ran as if something were amiss last time and has six weeks to get over that. If he returns to his best he should be right there today with the peerless Ryan Moore a nice bonus in the saddle. 5/1 looks OK to me.
John Gosden’s Gregorian was nothing special last time either but the stable has been in better form of late and this horse often keeps the best company and is in a Group 3 today. At his prime I reckon he would win this and 11/2 is tempting enough to take a chance he’s in better shape this time.
2.55 Newmarket Battalion 2pts 5/1
3.30 Newmarket Gregorian 2pts 11/2
1pt win double the two
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A couple of lays at the Curragh over the weekend.
In today’s Scurry sprint Dermot Weld’s
Alkasser
is 5/1 having the sexy improver’s profile. He is dropping down to 6f from 7f though and that previous win has not worked out at all well. He could be anything but in a 23 runner handicap against some seasoned older sprinters this might be a different ball game for him.
In tomorrow’s Pretty Polly we see
Thistle Bird
very prominent in the betting. This is a Gp1 though and her best win is at group three level. Perhaps not the strongest field for the race but she faces Gp1 winners. Marvellous could bounce back from her Oaks run but needs to in order to have a chance and last year’s winner Ambivalent seems to hold less doubts than the other two and is only a point shorter than Thistle Bird.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just two for Newmarket in a busy day’s racing.
William Haggas’ Battalion ran as if something were amiss last time and has six weeks to get over that. If he returns to his best he should be right there today with the peerless Ryan Moore a nice bonus in the saddle. 5/1 looks OK to me.
John Gosden’s Gregorian was nothing special last time either but the stable has been in better form of late and this horse often keeps the best company and is in a Group 3 today. At his prime I reckon he would win this and 11/2 is tempting enough to take a chance he’s in better shape this time.
2.55 Newmarket Battalion 2pts 5/1
3.30 Newmarket Gregorian 2pts 11/2
1pt win double the two
Battalion started a lot shorter but it looked like he never travelled today and was beaten half a mile out. Perhaps the rain didn’t suit him but it may have helped Gregorian win so it’s swings and roundabouts. Overall not a bad day and with only five now in the Irish Derby, my other bet is in better shape now, 5/4 from 4/1 for Fascinating Rock without Australia.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fascinating Rock scuppered a plan that had moved like clockwork right up to the race with a dismal display behind Australia. He looks a good bit short of top class on that evidence. Weld’s other horse, my lay of the day, Alkasser went off a silly 4/1 in his first go against specialist sprinters and was out with the washing in 16th place. Absolutely So went off the same skinny price in The Wokingham and it seems the general punting community has no concept of value for money. Taking 4/1 in 20 plus sprint handicaps is a sure route to the poorhouse.
Today is all about Noble Mission and I have to give him a go at 2/1 against Flintshire. I haven’t seen the latent talent within Flintshire that some pundits seem to have noticed. His Grand Prix De Paris win was a weak affair for my money and the form has not stacked up. It could be that he was flattered behind Cirrus Des Aigles in the Coronation Cup, as the latter horse was reported to have gone wrong during the race and was lame afterwards.
Noble Mission has been having a great season making the running and although probably beating a Telescope who wasn’t quite cherry ripe, it nevertheless didn’t do any harm to see Stoute’s horse hose up at Ascot. A little further to travel today but given a sensible ride from the front he may be hard to catch in a racing culture where French jockeys often go a modest clip before quickening up.
Flintshire should know he’s had a race, even if he does prevail.
Looking further to the Eclipse it is hard to look past The Fugue. This is a horse who cost me a fortune when failing to win the Oaks but she looks class at her best and if in the same mood she will take all the beating. 2/1 is an OK price that we are only getting because Night Of Thunder is in opposition. He is respected having lost nothing in defeat to the imperious looking Kingman but Hannon horses always concern me when stepping up in trip, being a stable that is speed orientated and hasn’t hit the heights at middle distances with any regularity over the years. The Fugue is a confident tip and I am sure she will start shorter than 2/1
Two confident picks that need doubled up.
Grand Prix De Saint Cloud Noble Mission 2/1
The Eclipse The Fugue 2/1
2 x 10pt Wins and 10pt Win Double (Break even with one winner, happy days with two!)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What can you say?
I think if James Doyle knew how Flintshire was travelling in behind him he may have been a bit less vigorous in the saddle. The trip was the question mark as I said beforehand and it’s found him out there.
Like I said, I don’t see this Flintshire the same way others seem to and I’ll keep going against him until he shows me otherwise.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That was agony Steve! Like watching Crisp! I thought he’d hacked up but you’re right he just didn’t quite get home. I think these tactics are perfect but he does seem to get lonely out in front (it happened last time in Ireland as well over 10f). Still he will be tough to beat this year given his conditions.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Well Noble Mission missed out but Thistle Bird defied my concerns and lifted the Pretty Polly. I didn’t think she was truly Group 1 and although she handled the longer trip I think her success was more due to a lack of overall quality amongst the opposition.
Marvellous didn’t run and last year’s winner Ambivalent hasn’t struck me as a true group 1 filly and that is why I wanted to lay Thistle Bird rather than back Roger Varian’s runner. I think this is a race that has been won by Group 3, or 2 at best, fillies this past two seasons and the presence of the disappointing Just The Judge in third bears that out in my mind. She was the Irish Guineas winner last year but has shown little since then and the fact that she was due to run in a handicap at Royal Ascot says an awful lot about a Group 1 race when she can finish ahead of the previous year’s winner.
Mark Johnston’s impressive Newmarket 2yo winner
Muraaqaba
has gone largely unheralded but this daughter of Dubawi out of Nufoos did it well and should improve. I would be interested to see if they stick to 6f with her or step up to 7f in time. She has entered the 1000 Guineas betting at 25/1 and must be watched next time for further clues.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am usually loathe to back favourites but sometimes you see a price and you know it won’t last so it has to be taken.
One such case has just offered itself up.
Australia is a horse we won’t get decent odds for until the Arc, if he does actually line up there. In the meantime the Irish Champion is his main target.
Betting has just opened on the race and Australia is 5/4, which I can’t see lasting. Looking at the race The Fugue is second fav at 5/1 closely followed by Magician. The Fugue would be a big danger but I just can’t see O’Brien taking on his stable star with his good older horses and risk being hoist by his own petard. Some of the usual suspects are in the betting but it is not hard to envisage a small field and an odds-on Australia on the day. The ground could be the enemy but at the shorter trip perhaps not quite the concern it would pose at 12f.
Worth 10pts and pray it doesn’t rain.
Irish Champion Stakes Australia 10pts 5/4
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Lancashire Oaks at Haydock and a chance the ante-post fav Seal Of Approval won’t run. Trainer James Fanshawe says she will only run if it rains a good bit and that will leave Oaks winner from last season Talent as near favourite.
John Gosden is often the man to follow in this race but he complicates matters by running two. One would assume Rab Havlin would have first choice and he is on Sultanina, who is two for two but both were narrow wins. I took a liking to Pomology last year and it has been a while since she stepped up to win in Gp 3 company in France, taking her to 3 from 3. Graham Lee rides her and I narrowly prefer her despite the lack of a run this season. 13/2 is her current price and I would expect that to contract if the vibes are right.
Lancashire Oaks, Haydock Saturday 2pts 13/2
Tonight at Epsom I am expecting top weight Jakey to take the beating, he is down in grade a bit and should go very close in this company. A general second favourite to Lilac Tree this morning he has been nibbled in slightly and it may be close as to who goes off fav by flag fall. I’ll try 4pts at 3/1
8.20 Epsom Jakey 4pts 3/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Coral Charge has reduced in size to a manageable size with 13 declared at the moment. Pearl Secret is out now and I would have thought needs slower ground to make a mark in the group level sprints.
Steps is fighting for favouritism with Stepper Point and Ahtoug but I’ll take a pop at twice the general odds of that trio with 3yo Extortionist.
The selection didn’t show much on his first couple of starts this year and I feared he might not have trained on, however he dispelled those fears with a win in a class 2 handicap at Newmarket before going on to a narrow defeat in a group 3 sprint at The Curragh at the hands of Fountain Of Youth who prevailed late on by a head.
Extortionist travelled well for much of his last race and could be one of the potential improvers in the field. A decent draw in stall 4 and the imperious Ryan Moore on his back gives plenty to be positive about, even if the ratings say he has a little bit to find with some of the field.
Coral Charge Extortionist 2pts 10/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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