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Plenty hotpots to take on today.
2.30 Mukhmal 1pt 9/2
3.05 Obliterator 1pt 13/2
3.45 Bright Approach 1pt 13/2
4.25 Estimate 1pt 10/1
5.00 Hors de Combat 2pts 11/1
5.35 Zee Zeely 2pts 12/1
Ist horse looked speedy at Chester and fav is very short.
2nd horse may improve for return to fast ground and fav is stepping from handicap company and is very short despite good profile.
3rd horse found track all against her at Chester and is open to improvement.
4th horse is big price for a previous winner, has several things to overcome but has done the gig before and Leading Light is very skinny.
5th Horse looks progressive and should be suited by this test for shrewd trainer.
Final horse looked a different beast on his first effort on a sound surface. Could be underestimated with stable mate Wrangler pulled out now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Plenty hotpots to take on today.
2.30 Mukhmal 1pt 9/2
3.05 Obliterator 1pt 13/2
3.45 Bright Approach 1pt 13/2
4.25 Estimate 1pt 10/1
5.00 Hors de Combat 2pts 11/1
5.35 Zee Zeely 2pts 12/1
Ist horse looked speedy at Chester and fav is very short.
2nd horse may improve for return to fast ground and fav is stepping from handicap company and is very short despite good profile.
3rd horse found track all against her at Chester and is open to improvement.
4th horse is big price for a previous winner, has several things to overcome but has done the gig before and Leading Light is very skinny.
5th Horse looks progressive and should be suited by this test for shrewd trainer.
Final horse looked a different beast on his first effort on a sound surface. Could be underestimated with stable mate Wrangler pulled out now.
It’s been a poor week but a belting run from Estimate at 10/1 and Hors De Combat ran a screamer from a mediocre draw in 12 while the high drawn horses dominated in the main.
The Great War wasn’t great and Valira never looked like it from an uninspiring ride, so a couple of shorties beaten.
Michael Stoute is the magnet for money now and had a good winner in Cannock Chase who did me a favour last time. I thought he was too short moving from Handicaps to group races today but he took it in his stride.
That Obliterator was a donkey today and looks a horse to avoid.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Totally Pi55ed off after spending all morning arguing with HMRC over money and getting nowhere.
Just the one bet today on Horsted Keynes. Withdrawn because of soft ground last time I tipped him, he remains with great promise and only Stoute fever is stopping him going off fav today, as Russian Realm will be a warm order.
Varian had a nice winner in the opener and I think he can collect again with this unexposed horse who seems to find 7f ideal and who looks to have a good draw. Quite confident of a big run here and 8pts at 8/1 has a nice ring to it.
5.35 Asc Horsted Keynes 8pts 8/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good to see you put a thread up Mr Caution, enjoy your contributions.
Any ideas or thoughts who might be in line from Gosden’s barn for the Leger?Cheers Nathan,
Munjaz
, who I backed as a rank outsider for Epsom may well be more likely to be suited to further and a Leger path in time.
It’s very early days yet but I thought recent winner Eagle Top
who, despite being by Pivotal, made his debut over 1m 3f and stayed on really well, looked a likely sort as a long term shot. He steps up to 1m 4f at Leicester on Saturday and I think he will probably stay the Leger trip on visual impression so far.
I took some pelters in my local bookies for suggesting Eagle Top for the St Leger and then saw him beaten in a handicap at Leicester. Perversely I never got a quote for the Leger. He has been quoted at 8/1 for the race now so the bird has flown but John Gosden has just said he wants to leave the horse at a mile and a half, so bear that in mind.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just to add insult to injury my old pal from The Irish 1000 G Rizeena goes unbacked this time and scoots in
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well Frank Spencer put paid to yesterday’s Nap and it’s a case of same old story.
Today is all about the sprints for me and although Aljamaheer is much respected Slade Power is the proven speedster and at 5/1 he is my pick.
The Wokingham is the usual minefield where your horse can run a stormer and finish 6th. Baccarat seems likely to give us a good run for our money from a high draw and I have had my eye on George Challoner for a while now. I am hoping this race might put him on course to more recognition. 14/1 looks an OK price.
Michael Stoute’s Arab Spring has made great strides this year but he’s a bit skinny for me after going up 19lbs to 104 in the ratings. I am siding with Hamelin here, a horse I pencilled in to back next time after a very encouraging seasonal debut. He looked a horse with more to give yet and I think this faster ground will suit him today.
Today’s lay would be Dick Whittington with some Wesley Ward runners and a few other potential banana skins in opposition.
3.05 Ascot Hamelin 4pts 6/1
4.25 Ascot Slade Power 4pts 5/1
5.00 Ascot Baccarat 2pts 14/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Seriously impressive by Arab Spring but very disappointing from Hamelin who was always having to be cajoled along to keep pace. Maybe he needs a bit of cut after all.
Dick Whittington duly proved that the streets were not paved with gold!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Treve is said to be being trained for the Vermille before a crack at the Arc.
With that in mind it is time to get on another horse for the King George/QE
There are if’s and buts about 3yos Eagle Top, Australia and Taghrooda so I am siding with Telescope.
He has taken time to get right but looked much more like it yesterday and given good ground must be sure to go close.
4/1 looks OK to me given that the field may reduce in size.
Racebets are the only odds on offer and it’s worth a maximum 10pts for me as I can see him starting a good bit shorter and he looks one of the more certain starters.
King George VI QEII Telescope 10pts 4/1 Racebets
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Treve will miss the King George VI.
Connections have said she will be out until September at least, having pulled muscles at Ascot.
Betting has been suspended for now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice debut for big purchase price filly Al Namaah at Chantilly today.
Full sister to Oaks winner Was and trained by Andre Fabre I think she is worth a pop at 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas.
Normally you would worry if they will travel from France for Newmarket but the stable landed this year’s race and the owners have stated they love UK racing so I think she will come over if good enough.
Time to get in before the word spreads.
1000 Guineas 2015 Al Namaah 6pts win 25/1 (Totesport)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have watched Al Namaah’s winning debut and the thing that strikes me is what a superb physical specimen she is. As the camera angle changes near the finish you can see she dwarfs the runner up and looks like an older horse in comparison.
One more run will see this filly shrivel in price so it seems sensible to have a punt for the Oaks as well.
2015 Oaks Al Namaah 6pts win 20/1 Totesport
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice debut for big purchase price filly Al Namaah at Chantilly today.
Full sister to Oaks winner Was and trained by Andre Fabre I think she is worth a pop at 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas.
Normally you would worry if they will travel from France for Newmarket but the stable landed this year’s race and the owners have stated they love UK racing so I think she will come over if good enough.
Time to get in before the word spreads.
1000 Guineas 2015 Al Namaah 6pts win 25/1 (Totesport)
Two-horse race. Strictly speaking the second comes out the better horse as she was conceding six pounds. She had previously won very easily on soft ground but the ground was much quicker today.
Nice debut for big purchase price filly Al Namaah at Chantilly today.
Full sister to Oaks winner Was and trained by Andre Fabre I think she is worth a pop at 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas.
Normally you would worry if they will travel from France for Newmarket but the stable landed this year’s race and the owners have stated they love UK racing so I think she will come over if good enough.
Time to get in before the word spreads.
1000 Guineas 2015 Al Namaah 6pts win 25/1 (Totesport)
Two-horse race. Strictly speaking the second comes out the better horse as she was conceding six pounds. She had previously won very easily on soft ground but the ground was much quicker today.
Have you seen the race?
The winner won with a ton in hand and Harry Herbert said she wouldn’t have blown a candle out after the race. I will wager you what ever you wish that the runner up will not touch this winner off level weights.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Some bookies go 25/1 for the Oaks so I’ll top up 4pts at those odds and stick another 4 on for the Guineas. It’s only money after all
2015 Oaks Al Namaah 4pts 25/1 Racebets
2015 1000 Guineas Al Namaah 4pts 25/1 Totesport
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice debut for big purchase price filly Al Namaah at Chantilly today.
Full sister to Oaks winner Was and trained by Andre Fabre I think she is worth a pop at 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas.
Normally you would worry if they will travel from France for Newmarket but the stable landed this year’s race and the owners have stated they love UK racing so I think she will come over if good enough.
Time to get in before the word spreads.
1000 Guineas 2015 Al Namaah 6pts win 25/1 (Totesport)
Two-horse race. Strictly speaking the second comes out the better horse as she was conceding six pounds. She had previously won very easily on soft ground but the ground was much quicker today.
Have you seen the race?
The winner won with a ton in hand and Harry Herbert said she wouldn’t have blown a candle out after the race. I will wager you what ever you wish that the runner up will not touch this winner off level weights.
Yes, that’s why I used the phrase ‘strictly speaking’. Is the second any good, is she better on softer ground? Just trying to add a note of caution but failing abysmally.
This year we had the ‘perfectly’ bred Australia winning the Derby and next year the highest priced yearling completing the 1000/Oaks double? Personally, I wouldn’t touch either price but preference would be for the shorter race. The Oaks is a market that usually takes plenty of time to take shape. Her sister did win the Oaks but on the day that race wasn’t the greatest test of stamina and she was subsequently dropped back in trip. This horse looks a more precocious sort and I suspect her optimum will be short of a mile and a half.
No harm in dreaming though.
"stilvi":1hva8xvd wrote:
Two-horse race. Strictly speaking the second comes out the better horse as she was conceding six pounds. She had previously won very easily on soft ground but the ground was much quicker today.Have you seen the race?
The winner won with a ton in hand and Harry Herbert said she wouldn’t have blown a candle out after the race. I will wager you what ever you wish that the runner up will not touch this winner off level weights.
Yes, that’s why I used the phrase ‘strictly speaking’. Is the second any good, is she better on softer ground? Just trying to add a note of caution but failing abysmally.
This year we had the ‘perfectly’ bred Australia winning the Derby and next year the highest priced yearling completing the 1000/Oaks double? Personally, I wouldn’t touch either price but preference would be for the shorter race. The Oaks is a market that usually takes plenty of time to take shape. Her sister did win the Oaks but on the day that race wasn’t the greatest test of stamina and she was subsequently dropped back in trip. This horse looks a more precocious sort and I suspect her optimum will be short of a mile and a half.
No harm in dreaming though.
No need for sounding a note of caution. I had already backed the horse and people who want to follow suit will be doing so knowing the risks.
I haven’t seen anything that I would nail my flag to for the fillies races next year and Cursory Glance looked one to oppose at the head of the market for the 1000 Guineas.
Of course it isn’t as simple as just picking the best bred horses and you need to see something that makes you believe they can go on to be special. All things considered I would imagine normal progress would see this filly competitive at a high level. If this horse had made its debut for the O’Brien stable on a televised Saturday meeting I am sure it would be much shorter for the classics.
You don’t want to touch the prices and that is fair enough but I suspect you wouldn’t have backed Taghrooda for the Oaks in December at 33/1 when I did. You can call it a flash in the pan but I have landed several of these bets over the years. I had Kingman at 9/1 for Newmarket and it looks like that was one we’ll be asking how the F*&$ did that get beat? in the future. Last year I had Ruler Of The World 25/1 and seconds at 25/1 in the form of Just The Judge and Secret Gesture in the classics.
At such odds it is, of course, a dream but these dreams have been coming true on occasion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Al Namaah is said to be having one more race before going for the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend. If she were to win the latter race she would go into the winter as one of the leading fillies in the betting for Newmarket.
She may not stay the Oaks trip but it is worth a bet, because, if she wins the Guineas, it is as certain as Christmas she would be a hot favourite for the Oaks and you could lay off at a little over the odds for Epsom if stamina is a concern.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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