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For a bit of fun I’ll be taking on favourites in the search for a few winners and a long term approach to profit.
All too often you open the paper and see naps and tips at miserly odds, feeling that Stevie Wonder could pick them out.
We’ll start today taking on Stoute and Varian in the 5.25 Yarmouth.
Stoute’s horse is a maiden who hasn’t finished better then 5th yet. Mairise is by Authorized and fans will think the trip will help today, along with the entry into handicap company. Last night he was priced up at 9/4 and I felt it worth taking him on. Roger Varian has Thurayaat, who broke his maiden at 1/2 but he took a keen hold last time and they have popped a hood on him now.
I’ll take a punt on the Mick Channon Shimba Hills who was sent off at a suicidal lick last time and that took its toll on him in the closing stages. If he goes at a more sensible pace today he should have a better chance and I think the better ground should also help.
5.25 Yarmouth Shimba Hills 2pts win 9/2 (widely available)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
In typical fashion the horse they couldn’t give away in the betting wins. I was puzzled by the hold up tactics on my horse, he usually gets to the front. I know they overdid the front running last time but on the faster surface today I felt they might have still made plenty use of him.
-2pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Had a look at the 2.50 at Epsom Wednesday and as much as I’d like to take the favourite on here, I think he could be a bit of value. The Mark Johnston Hartnell is more exposed than some here but he probably has a lot to recommend over the two eye catching one time runners from the powerful stables of Gosden and Appleby.
Moontime
represents the Appleby stable and he won narrowly on his only start. As normal for me, I wonder about Godolphin animals going into their second start. It can also be said that John Gosden has a line on Moontime through his recent maiden winner Munjaz, who went down by a nose to the Godolphin horse on his second start.
Marzocco
won a Kempton maiden in late October and is a typical John Gosden three year old who could make great improvement this season, particularly as he steps up in trip. The stable is red hot and that is why we will get a decent price on the Mark Johnston inmate.
Hartnell has the advantage of experience and he ran well enough in a French class 1 race to suggest he is the form pick and up to conceding 2lbs to his rivals. I think he’ll probably make the running and try to exploit any greenness that his lightly raced rivals may possess, particularly on this tricky track. Mark Johnston runners can often be hard to pass and I’m betting that this one will do the business.
5/2 looks well worth a bet with a lot going for him and the possibility that his rivals may have been given more than due respect strictly on the formbook.
2.50 Epsom Hartnell 8pts win 5/2 (several firms)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good luck with the thread Steve, hope you do better on the flat than I have the past few years. Will watch your Classic hopes in particular with interest.
Good luck with the thread Steve, hope you do better on the flat than I have the past few years. Will watch your Classic hopes in particular with interest.
Thanks for that.
My classic bets so far are:-
2000 Guineas
Toormore 20/1 Kingman 9/1
1000 Guineas
Terrific 33/1 (I think they are trying her over further so that looks goosed) Taghrooda 40/1 (Speculative punt)
Derby
Munjaz 66/1 and Western Hymn 33/1
Oaks
Taghrooda 33/1
These are all dotted about the site in various posts.
I’ll probably pick a saver for the Oaks and might have a serious punt in the 1000G on the day, don’t really fancy one strongly yet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A very poor effort from Hartnell, who was rated 18lb ahead of the winner. Mark Johnston has always been a mystery to me and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this fellow romp in when he’s a 14/1 shot or similar. Everything looked in place for a solid run today but the only Derby this horse should run in on this evidence is the one that takes place on Blackpool beach.
The curse of the new thread strikes another tipster!
-10pts
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A very poor effort from Hartnell, who was rated 18lb ahead of the winner. Mark Johnston has always been a mystery to me and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this fellow romp in when he’s a 14/1 shot or similar. Everything looked in place for a solid run today but the only Derby this horse should run in on this evidence is the one that takes place on Blackpool beach.
The curse of the new thread strikes another tipster!
Saw Dierdre Johnston in an RUK interview afterwards say Hartnell finished distressed Steve. Apparently a relaxed individual at home (Hartnell, not Dierdre) and failed to settle today. Horse seems ok now. So might be a race to forget about.
Got some bloody good ante-post bets there Steve. Am sure the red will disappear before long.
Value Is EverythingHartnell certainly ran well below expectations today. The next race the same stable and jockey fire in a 12/1 winner. I swear it’s a conspiracy!
One or two of my ante posts have unraveled with Terrific looking short of pace over 10f in her trial, giving little confidence if she shows. It appears Taghrooda is no longer running. Initially she was only in the Oaks but her subsequent Guineas entry gave me a feeling that there must be a reason they decided to enter her. Somewhat amazingly she is entered in a HANDICAP at Sandown on Friday, where she is set to carry top weight. That seems an odd starting point for me and she’s the only filly in the race. The betting guide has her in at 11/2, which makes either those odds, or 10/1 for the Oaks a load of old nonsense. I am not sure what the record of handicap runners is in the Oaks but you would need to think she would have to spread-eagle a field of horses rated in the 80’s to warrant a place, never mind near favouritism, in a Classic.
Western Hymn is entered up in the Classic Trial on Friday as well. Paddy Power have him in at 8/13 for the trail that rarely has much bearing on the big one. Having said that, this horse has hardly had a normal preparation so far, with a debut in December at Kempton being a highly unusual place to start a career. William Buick picked him as one of his 10 to follow this year and I believe a good showing on Friday will see him at a single figure price for Epsom glory.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Over to Warwick on Thursday for the less than famous George and Irene Ruby Anniversary Handicap.
A race that won’t take a lot of winning and I’m taking on early favourite Incurs Four Faults with the Hughie Morrison trained Nissaki Kasta. She made a decent start when third to Richard Hannon’s Cape Wrath but never went on the next twice. The ground was heavy at Salisbury on her second start and her third run was on the all weather. The good ground tomorrow may help and with Jimmy Fortune up she could be a modicum of class in a modest race.
Warwick 5.45 Nissaki Kasta 3pts win 10/3 Bet 365
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good to see you put a thread up Mr Caution, enjoy your contributions.
Any ideas or thoughts who might be in line from Gosden’s barn for the Leger?Blackbeard to conquer the World
All the best with this Stevie, I’m sure you’ll make a better fist of it than I managed last year
Good news for you regarding
Taghrooda
. Johnny G says she’s skips the handicap for an Oaks trial. I’m sure that’ll have you all warm and tingly inside
Let’s get our heads together;
My Titania
for the Guineas and
Taghrooda
for the Oaks. That’ll tear up the king’s
Tapestry
and knock him off his throne
Good luck with your new Thread Steve, there’s nothing better than finding one to beat the jolly old favourite and will watch with interest.
You certainly chose a difficult race at Warwick today so good luck with your choice in the last.
I was looking at the 3.40 and thinking there might be some value there in going against the
odds on Voyageofdiscovery
, both his runs have been on the All Weather at the same course (Lingfield) so he may not take so well to the turf, the rest of the field could be anything with a mixture of newcomers and those with uninspiring previous runs.
I am going to plump for Roger Charltons’s newcomer
OLD GUARD
to possibly take the spoils or get close. Charlton’s horses seem fit and this boy is a half brother to Thistle Bird and Don Marco.
May do a reverse forecast with the fav. and a little to win.Any thoughts on that one Steve? Only going small just for fun really.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Good to see you put a thread up Mr Caution, enjoy your contributions.
Any ideas or thoughts who might be in line from Gosden’s barn for the Leger?Cheers Nathan,
Munjaz
, who I backed as a rank outsider for Epsom may well be more likely to be suited to further and a Leger path in time. It’s very early days yet but I thought recent winner
Eagle Top
who, despite being by Pivotal, made his debut over 1m 3f and stayed on really well, looked a likely sort as a long term shot. He steps up to 1m 4f at Leicester on Saturday and I think he will probably stay the Leger trip on visual impression so far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good luck with the thread Steve
Thank you Venture!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
All the best with this Stevie, I’m sure you’ll make a better fist of it than I managed last year
Good news for you regarding
Taghrooda
. Johnny G says she’s skips the handicap for an Oaks trial. I’m sure that’ll have you all warm and tingly inside
Let’s get our heads together;
My Titania
for the Guineas and
Taghrooda
for the Oaks. That’ll tear up the king’s
Tapestry
and knock him off his throne
I prefer Taghrooda taking the traditional path but it was said she didn’t eat up the other day. It looks like the Pretty Polly will be her next start and a certain horse called
Talent
won that race last year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good luck with your new Thread Steve, there’s nothing better than finding one to beat the jolly old favourite and will watch with interest.
You certainly chose a difficult race at Warwick today so good luck with your choice in the last.
I was looking at the 3.40 and thinking there might be some value there in going against the
odds on Voyageofdiscovery
, both his runs have been on the All Weather at the same course (Lingfield) so he may not take so well to the turf, the rest of the field could be anything with a mixture of newcomers and those with uninspiring previous runs.
I am going to plump for Roger Charltons’s newcomer
OLD GUARD
to possibly take the spoils or get close. Charlton’s horses seem fit and this boy is a half brother to Thistle Bird and Don Marco.
May do a reverse forecast with the fav. and a little to win.Any thoughts on that one Steve? Only going small just for fun really.
JacHi Jac, my pick today is VERY weak in the betting but perhaps that is a good thing because my first couple were very well backed but couldn’t get it done. The Fav Incurs Four Faults is very short at as low as 5/4 and not for me.
Voyage Of Discovery is very short but the stable have been in pretty good form and I never seem to have any joy taking those types on with newcomers. Charlton seems to have started better this season but I notice his Old Guard is a gelding already. His sire Notnowcato did me a couple of favours a few years ago and I suppose 13/2 is fair enough for an each-way shout. I probably a race I would avoid but good luck if you’re having a go.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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