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Can someone who knows G2/3 & Listed level French racing help

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  • #20459
    Presto
    Member
    • Total Posts 315

    Vadamar and Silver Pond will match up shortly in the 12f Hong Kong Vase. I don’t know Listed and lower Group form too well and have trouble assessing the form of the G2 Prix de Conseil de Paris where Vadamar beat Solemnia by a neck with Ivory Land in 3rd. How strong is that form?

    My assessment:
    Vadamar was 5L behind in the Derby. He was then 2L behind Reliable Man in the Prix Niel where Meandre had to work hard to get past him. Meandre was likely not at his best on the Good-to-Soft ground and he had some training/fitness issues I remember. In the Arc, Reliable Man was very wide on fast ground and well beaten. Meandre was a bit wide and ran well finishing with Snow Fairy, St Nicholas Abbey, So You Think, Silver Pond and co.

    Silver Pond closed off only moderately when beaten 2L by Sarafina and Cirrus des Aigles in a farcically run race suggesting to me that he doesn’t have great speed. Or maybe he was below form after a tough win over Behkabad on soft 3 weeks prior; he was given a break after Saint Cloud. Freshened up he ran a distant 2nd to Cirrus on very soft ground which I can excuse, then closed off as well as anything in the on-pace dominated Arc.

    Lots of ambiguity, especially since Vadamar is likely an improving horse. My impressions are
    -Meandre underperformed in the Prix Niel. Barring improvement Vadamar is not as good as him. I think the Arc suggests Meandre and Silver Pond are closely matched so Silver Pond probably > Vadamar. Silver Pond’s last at the head of the straight here in the Arc and matches So You Think to the wire, which also proves he goes on fast ground.
    <!– m –>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb9K3oqp7FE<!– m –>
    -But Silver Pond doesn’t quicken well so he might struggle if the Vase is slowly-run. As you see, off a crawl at Saint Cloud Zack Hall closed off as well as he did.
    <!– m –>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQ8JIf3TWEI<!– m –>

    The form of the Prix de Conseil would give me a better idea of where Vadamar stands. Thanks!

    #382046
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    I’ve always thought that the Conseil de Paris is a good race for forecasting future talent.

    Not sure how this year’s race will work out but worth noting that the Aga Khan’s team withdrew Shareta out of this race and supplemented Vadamar into it.

    #382065
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Just my opinion, Presto (my knowledge of French lower class form is probably more limited than yours) but Silver Pond has an attack of the slows, and was flattered in the Arc by being unable to get into the race until it was over, from his poor draw.
    Vadamar, conversely. does look a horse on the up, and has the kind of prep you’d expect for one of thhe Aga’s better horses.
    Looked all at sea in the Derby, and the Niel form is best ignored for the warm-up it was (for all the first 3, apparently).
    Possibly not considered ready for the Arc, he then did all that he had to in his steadily run Longchamp gp2;
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWfv7NyuQLA
    without ever looking seriously threatened, and looks ideally prepared for this.
    That’s my take anyway, and he ought to at least make the first 3 in this, though I’ll just watch with interest.
    Good luck with your bet.

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