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A race where I always like an early go, and there’s at least a little less confusion than I anticipated, with most of the horses on my radar, not entered……
The one who immediately gets my attention though is Breden. There was absolutely nothing wrong with his effort in The Lincoln, while he went on to win nicely at Newbury, shortly after. I’m not convinced that he’s been 100% the last twice, and off this mark, I’d have him as a player. I’ll get a chance to see him on Friday at Chelmsford, but even then I might not play too early, as he holds an entry in The Duty Free at Newbury, where he knows his way about.
Martyn Meade took this two years ago, and his Chilean, who shaped well enough at Ascot, is also high on the list, especially if the rain came.
Numerian is a horse who I think could be very good, but he needs to reproduce his Ascot effort, rather than that of Galway. I think he’s one to definitely persevere with, but whether he comes here would be debatable, and immediately, The Irish Cambridgeshire looks a likely target.
One of serious interest is Nicholas T. As good as he’s ever been this year, and he continued that progression in The Shergar Cup last time. He’s of definite interest for an early go, as I just can’t see him swerving this.
This isn’t a race where you’d automatically look for an Aidan O’Brien, but I’m convinced that Turnberry Isle will win a big pot before the seasons out, while the phrase “eyecatching entry” fits Amedeo Modigliani perfectly.
Other entries to note include King Ottokar and Desert Icon, while if Smile A Mile could get the mark up, and he certainly holds a few entries, then he’s a potential dark one.
Plenty of time to change my mind though, and though I’d have Breden edging it right now, just from Nicholas T, with the O’Brien pair also of interest, I’m in no rush to bet anything right away this year.
Don’t know what to make of Numerian last night.
For all he’s becoming a “Nearly” horse for me, the money that’s came for him the last twice is encouraging, and in last three runs he’s shaped as if he’d like every yard of this.
I just wish I knew their plans, as if he did travel, he’d start single figures.
I’m very close to risking him at 33’s.
I’m really hoping that Lord North runs here now.
I was happy with that run at Ascot there, and I’m confident that he can go close here.
I have an early bet on 2 for this.
Lord North 25-1
Passion and Glory 25-1Lord North looks as if he’s been wrapped up in cotton wool, but from a top yard I would trust that they have big plans for him, and I think that this race could be his target. I actually think 25-1 is a very attractive price for him after that.
I don’t know if I could give a convincing case for Passion and Glory being as attractive at that price, the reason being is that I don’t know just how serious an entry this would be for him. I do think that he’s a very promising horse though, and I’m sure we’ll see a lot more of him.
That was a decent trial right enough Jeff, Winner was very good, and you’d have to be hopeful now.
I’m really hoping that Lord North runs here now.
Ditto, if he was trained by anyone else you would think he was a certainty to run.
Been raised 4 lbs for that run and seeing it was his first run for 100+ days you would hope he comes on a bundle for it. Can easily see him doing a Halling
and contesting in G1’s next year.Numerian and Nicholas T probably my main pair for this at the moment, and by Sunday I could have a better idea of their chances.
I took the 33’s for Numerian, but he’s been a steady 20’s for the last week, and I’m hoping that that looks a good bet if he takes his chance in The Northfields on Sunday. I haven’t given up on Turnberry Isle either, and he could take that in too.
At this moment I wish I had more of the 33’s, but if he runs well on Sunday I won’t be complaining. I’m still not convinced that he’ll actually go to Newmarket, but I am convinced now that he wants over a mile, and both this and The Northfields should suit perfectly.
I haven’t taken the 50’s yet on Nicholas T, but he’s out at Doncaster tomorrow, and though I’m hoping that he runs a quiet prep, I’ll be sure not to miss the 50’s.
Good Birthday also takes on that Doncaster Race, and there’s be a lot of blue for him this week for Newmarket.
After watching Bless Him take Lord North apart I raced to the market for an ante-post bet but he isn’t entered! Won a Britannia as a 3yo so had big field form ticked and having won hard on bridle last twice looks in form of life well handicapped, would have surely been favourite with an entry!
Not 100% convinced with Numerian today, and I’ve at least laid my stake back, for all it was. I’ll be happy to go back in, but definitely a “nearly” horse at the moment, and greening out just made sense for now.
Nicholas T very much the #1 for me now, but like The Cesarewitch, I’ve decided to keep AP Stakes very low in this, and I still haven’t bet him.
He’s one of them near missers! Handicapping himself badly while he does it!
Not easy to form a view on this race- i notice amedeo modigliani is in the betting/entries not having been seen since April- surprising!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Had a look at this race today. Stats say Aged 6 or younger and Won 3 or more times in their career.
Le Don De Vie ew for me at the moment. Looks progressive. Hard to get away from.
just had a bash at the autumn double – le don de vie (cambridgseshire) & Timoshenko (ces)
don’t seem to have much luck ante post but you can only win if youre in!
Very pleased to have laid Numerian, as he’s not going now.
Not much point betting anything now, and with the price for Nicholas T holding, I might as well wait till final decs, and get extra places.
I still like that AOB pair, and Chilean might still be a big price if enough rain comes, but I’ll stay ahead Antepost in this for now.
I’m a fan of Star of Bengal here, but he doesn’t seem too popular. I will bet him on the day.
The horse I’m thinking of catching an early price on is Dubai Horizon at 25-1. If he had already ran this season I would bet him right away, but I think that I will wait on him as well
I may regret it in a couple of hours buckers if he’s not declared, but I’m taking
the chance with Dubai Horizon at 25/1. He has been off for a full
year, but he has won before after a lengthy break (163 days) and although he’s carrying
not far off topweight, he does have a handy 3lbs taken off by Cieren Fallon who’s on
fire at the moment. He looked quite decent when he gave 5lbs and got the better of
Mountain Angel in a decent race at Sandown last September. Mountain Angel turned out
to be a decent sort himself and runs off 17lbs higher now than then. If they have
him fit I think he could still be quite well in. Worth a pop I reckon.Pleased to have waited with Nicholas T, as I can now get the same price, 50’s, and also to six places. I’ll top that up should any firm go seven places or more.
It looks tight at the top, and I could go with most of those at the head of the market.
I’ll just side with a couple of outsiders as backup.
I gave Smile A Mile a mention earlier, but he hasn’t really went on, and was poor at Ayr last week. 100’s draws me in though, and I’ve taken 125’s on Isomer, who was a Notebook horse earlier in the season, and could outrun those odds at his best. That pair will obviously be each way, and also big prices on the exchange.
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