Can you tell me why this horse won’t win? Should be a shades of odds on by my reckoning. Her form is a lot better than those that have already raced and although her tendency to go left has proved a problem on Newmarkets Rowley Mile, it shouldn’t around Lingfield. The icing on the cake has to be the presence of Chris catlin in the saddle. There are few stronger riders than him around and he should be able to ensure she knuckles down for pressure (ridden by claimers first 2 starts).
Its 2/1 on Betfair because the stable is unfashionable and because Cuppacocoa, Sans Reward, Spirit of Venus and Three Decades could all improve past it, while Ioweyou is a well-bred, unknown quantity. Personally I reckon Spirit Of Venus takes it.
I love unfashionale stables with horses that already have the form in the book. The other 2 with reasonable form, Cuppacocoa and Spirit of venus are both small sorts that pysically don’t give the impression there is plenty more to come and similarly about the way they shaped in the same Nottingham race. That contest is hard to assess but doesn’t look great, the winner well beaten on her debut and then below what she seemed to run to at Nottingham in a listed race behind Gilded at York next time.
(Edited by davidjohnson at 11:59 am on May 23, 2006)
My ratings seem to agree with you David. These are obviously weight adjusted
Bridge It Jo 81<br>River Rosie 70<br>Three Decades 67<br>Cuppacocoa 65<br>Sans Reward 62<br>[Ioweyou 60ish]<br>Going Straight 60<br>Spirit Of Venus 59<br>Auntumn Storm 57<br>Baytown Rosie 36
As you can see I’ve got Bridge It Jo 11lb clear with River Rosie next best who could improve quite a bit. The newcomer looks to have a difficult task while Spirit of Venus will really have to improve to figure. My only worry with the favourite is that the improvement was so dramatic. Will it find anymore improvement? However at 3.4 on Betfair I’ll be having a 2pt win bet on it and I’ll also chance a place bet on River Rosie.
Now looks the time to bet on it as its odds are just contracting slightly.
Very disappointing response to pressure. Possibly went too quick and though her third at Newmarket is backed up by the clock, I wouldn’t want to be making many excuses for her. The races doesn’t look up to much but the third shaped well over an inadequate trip and can will a similar event at 6f+.