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Breeding – Going Preferences for Sires Progeny

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  • #6635
    Prufrock
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    • Total Posts 2081

    Timeform’s <i>2007 Stallion Statistical Review</i> has much of the information, though not always in the most accessible of forms.

    Racing Post published the records of sires’ offspring by ground category between 2001 and the middle of 2007, from which the following impact values could be derived:

    SIRE Softer than good factor

    ATRAF………………….0.84
    AVERTI…………………1.14
    BAHAMIAN BOUNTY..1.04
    BARATHEA…………….0.95
    BERTOLINI……………..0.66
    CADEAUX GENEREUX..0.98
    CAPE CROSS………..0.72
    COMPTON PLACE…..0.99
    DANEHILL……………..0.99
    DANEHILL DANCER…1.06
    DANETIME…………….0.84
    DANSILI………………..0.60
    DESERT PRINCE…….0.78
    DESERT STYLE……..0.61
    DIESIS………………….0.99
    DIKTAT…………………1.14
    DR FONG………………1.23
    EFISIO………………….1.02
    FASLIYEV……………..0.80
    GALILEO……………….0.90
    GRAND LODGE………0.65
    GREEN DESERT……..0.62
    HALLING……………….0.92
    IN THE WINGS………..1.13
    INDIAN RIDGE………….0.91
    INVINCIBLE SPIRIT……0.70
    KALANISI……………….0.83
    KINGMAMBO…………..0.71
    KING’S BEST…………..1.30
    KYLLACHY………………1.23
    MACHIAVELLIAN………0.96
    MARJU……………………0.80
    MONTJEU……………….1.02
    MUJAHID……………….1.03
    MULL OF KINTYRE…..0.80
    NAMID…………………..1.03
    NIGHT SHIFT……………0.84
    ORPEN…………………..1.01
    PEINTRE CELEBRE……1.08
    PICCOLO…………………0.99
    PIVOTAL………………….1.04
    ROCK OF GIBRALTAR….0.98
    ROYAL APPLAUSE…….0.88
    SADLER’S WELLS……..1.07
    SAKHEE…………………..0.80
    SELKIRK…………………..0.92
    SHINKO FOREST………..0.87
    SINGSPIEL………………..0.54
    SPECTRUM……………….1.00
    SPINNING WORLD………0.99
    TAGULA……………………0.94
    TOBOUGG…………………1.12

    The higher the figure the better the record on going softer than good, with 1.00 being “par”.

    I tend to think that these things are overstated at times, however.

    #142263
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 27800

    Agree with Prufrock, a horses action is probably more important, round actioned gallopers often need soft conditions. But if you do not know it, the sires record is very useful.

    value is everything
    #142313
    Prufrock
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    • Total Posts 2081

    There are separate Flat and jumps publications, Kwai Chang Caine.

    Ground considerations do not figure highly in either of them, though the Timeform-assessed going does appear for all winners by sire in the last few years.

    #142314
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 27800

    There are separate Flat and jumps publications, Kwai Chang Caine.

    Have you got a different book to me Prufrock?
    My Timeform 2007 Stallion Statistical Review has both flat and jumps sires (jumps section 4 and 5).

    value is everything
    #142315
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    You’d think I’d have spotted that! :oops:

    Only picked it up the other day and have had no more than a cursory glance.

    Flat and jumps are indeed both covered.

    #142326
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Ive often felt that there is a real requirement for a handy guide to sires which has decent observation and commentary as well as some stats. Doe sthe timeform guide work this way or is it dry as dust stats?

    Last time i mentioned that i was told to go and do my own research…which was nice

    That list is interesting Pru. Notice that Sadlers wells isnt as high a figure as might have been expected???

    #142330
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    I find this kind of thing very interesting, but wouldn’t necessarily place too much on an indexed figure alone, or at least not until I fathomed out how it was being calculated.

    There is definitely something to sires imparting a tendency to act well or not so well on certain going types though.

    Going back a bit (I think he has just about run out of juice now), Mtoto’s generally needed top of the ground which wasn’t always reflected in his offsprings’ betting or form comments (either way).

    Recently, and quite surprisingly (for me at least), Lemon Drop Kids’ kids seem to like soft ground, but I will check this out properly and report back!!!

    #142359
    Prufrock
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    • Total Posts 2081

    Does the timeform guide work this way or is it dry as dust stats?

    In addition to the stats, there is an interpretative commentary on all the major sires, though I think it’s fair to say that it is written in a style that is at least as much tailored for the bloodstock industry as for analytically minded punters.

    If I remember I’ll bring a copy along on March 5th, clivex.

    #142361
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    I find this kind of thing very interesting, but wouldn’t necessarily place too much on an indexed figure alone, or at least not until I fathomed out how it was being calculated.

    The Racing Post data listed wins to runs by going categories. I just translated that into wins to opportunities compared to overall wins to opportunities.

    Kyllachys have won 1.23 times as often on ground softer than good than they have on all goings, in other words. The average sample size is 1750 runs per sire.

    The thing that struck me most was that a lot of the sires had impact values close to 1.00.

    #142362
    Bulwark
    Member
    • Total Posts 3119

    I find breeding a very useful tool in picking horses at prices on the flat (not so much but occasionally on jumps), but picking on breeding can be a hit miss game, I find it best to keep a watch on sires, dam sires, and of course on individual horses and you can get a better feel for it, as there are no set rules.

    For example, I have watched and been a fan of Giants Causeway as a sire since he burst onto the scene in 2004, and would largely say that his offspring are best on good to firm/firm or dirt surfaces. Nevertheless he had shamardal who, although ran to his best on good to firm put in some really good performances with cut, Jack The Giant of course is a decent jumps horse, and acts on soft (has put in his best rating on soft but perhaps he was better primed on that day than on others as it was last years arkle).

    A few sires who definitely spring to mind that have always come across to me as being noticeably better with cut are:

    Indian Ridge
    Polar Falcon – Pivotal – Kyllachy+Captain Rio
    Danehill Dancer
    Selkirk
    Mozart (dandy man obviously an exception to that though)
    Montjeu (Most of the Sadlers Wells offshoots generally)
    The Shirley Heights line generally, though Mark of Esteem seems to strike on anything.

    Sires that have always looked noticably better, or more consistent to me on firmer conditions are

    Sunday Silence
    Dansili
    Mr Prospectors offshoots (with fillies mainly), Nayef may well be worth following this up and coming season with his fillies on better ground.
    Storm Cat and his offshoots including Giants Causeway
    Stravinsky

    Like has already been said though, it also comes down to knee action etc. A good montjeu for example seems to come with a knee action as standard.

    Others may disagree, but the above trends are merely ones Ive noticed that tend to work for me.

    #142363
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    Flatstats do a Progeny total unique wins figure which is useful. It prevents a single offspring skewing the sires stats unnecessarily.

    #142385
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    Thanks Prufrock.

    I think that’s a sound enough way to initially assess the effect, for what it’s worth!!!

    (I would maybe try and weight it to base more on the better horses as these would tend to be racing in more competitive events, but that would make things a tad more complicated. I would also probably give up!)

    #142388
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    I only really find breeding information useful for debutants, particularly over sprint trips, and to gauge likely improvement through aging. Away from these everything you need to know is generally in the form book.

    #142390
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    I kind of agree LGR, but I would try and make deductions based on clues from a horse’s breeding/relatives when trying to assess the chances of it acting under new or extreme conditions.

    For example, the first time it runs on fibresand or on heavy ground, or steps up massively in trip.

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