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Yesterday at auction in Keeneland a 2.5% share in Flightline sold for $4.6 million, which implies 100% valuation (i.e. stud value) of $184 million (~£160 million). Just mind boggling!!!…
“…you couldn’t help but be very impressed with the performance although a special shoutout to Life Is Good who made the race by sacrificing himself in trying to actually win the race rather than ride for a place,..”
Totally agree with your assessment, LD.
But this is what has made Fightline’s performance that much more incredible as he was closely tracking LIG, then he just ran by him effortlessly. There’s a great overhead replay capturing the moment when he passed LIG and you could see Flightline’s tremendous extension, only great ones have such ability notwithstanding the number of races they had won…
A time can only be “fast” relative to other times so expressions like “artificially engineered to ensure fast times” make limited sense to me – a time still has to be fastest among them.
Though Andrew Beyer’s pure time figures suggest a huge differential, it could be argued that Timeform (see below) are only putting Flightline a pound behind Secretariat off a relative handful of efforts.
It’s not just how far they win by, it’s who they beat and how the beaten were ridden.
I wouldn’t rate Flightline through Life Is Good as he was burst by being ridden to take him on, but I wouldn’t necessarily rate Secretariat through Sham either for similar reasons.
Olympiad and Taiba were conservatively-ridden to obtain the best possible placings and seem to me to have run to form relative to one another – I make them of similar ability to St Nicholas Abbey and Farhh who chased Frankel’s shadow at York.
Though I didn’t agree with all of it (game of opinions and your opinion or mine has equal value to that of Timeform) I nevertheless found this an interesting read: https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/generic-feature/flightline-the-timeform-verdict-7112022
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"A couple of questions:
1. How many horse racing rating organizations are there in this world?
2. How many of them consistently come up with one equivalent rating assessment for any given race?Their exaggerated self-importance and existence is nothing more than pseudo-science, at the very best.
Until someone comes up with equine equivalent to something like the “law of gravity”, for instance, then people can have an intelligent conversation.
What does Frankel’s rating of 147 actually mean?
How was it determined?
By whom?
What is the empirical data to support this rating?
What were the conditions of the test?
How many people actually understand what this number represents?
Could the test (determination) be repeated by everyone consistently, time after time?On the last point above, we know that’s it’s a scientific fact that under test conditions two bodies (a feather and a tank) will fall 9.8 m per second per second, a thousand times out of a thousand.
Can we say that about rating a race horse?
And yet, so many people world-wide believe in such rating numbers as if they were cast in stone.
Instead, people should be more challenging. Challenge the assumptions. Challenge the process. But challenge it. Don’t just accept it as gospel just because so and so said this, therefore, it’s the truth!
I do think raw times count for something, perhaps moreso on dirt than turf. Dr. Fager still holds the American record for 1 mile on dirt (carrying 134lbs! this will never not amaze me), Spectacular Bid holds the 1 1/4 record, Secretariat holds the 1 1/2 record, Kelso holds the 2 mile record. You could easily argue for those as the top 4 American racehorses of all time, and I don’t think Flightline should even be in the same conversation as any of them.
https://www.racingmuseum.org/sites/default/files/hall-of-fame/horse/past-performances/Dr.%20Fager.pdf
https://www.racingmuseum.org/sites/default/files/hall-of-fame/horse/past-performances/Spectacular%20Bid.pdf
https://www.racingmuseum.org/sites/default/files/hall-of-fame/horse/past-performances/Secretariat.pdf
https://www.racingmuseum.org/sites/default/files/hall-of-fame/horse/past-performances/Kelso.pdf“…I don’t think Flightline should even be in the same conversation as any of them…”
I beg to differ on that point, Miss Woodford.
Other than Secretariat’s 12F Belmont, Flightline belongs in the conversation with any North American dirt horse, past or present, over any distance from 6F to 10F.
I didn’t see Dr. Fager or Kelso run, that’s before my time. However, under Dr. Fager’s form you will note that he lost a couple of 10F races both to Damascus. Each time the 6F split was 1:09 and change. Where Dr. Fager won over 10F, the 6F split was around 1:10 to 1.11. He would have been anywhere from 5-12 lengths back of Flightline at that point of the race as in each of his two 10F races Flightline ran 6F splits in 1:09 and change, with ease.
I do appreciate we are comparing times spanning decades across different centuries, but that’s all that we have, raw data.
A lot of people whether its fans, sports journalists, pundits, bettors, etc., etc., have a difficult time of letting go of the past no matter the sport or situation. We choose to see things only with our eyes, and not with our mind. But our eyes can be very deceiving…
My last words on this issue: Flightline is that good, one of the best ever, in my view.
Lots of interesting, differing, opinions and, upon reflection, it’s a bit rich for me to keep saying “game of opinions” when all year long I’ve constantly derided anyone who mentioned Baaeed in the same breath as Frankel.
I found the Timeform article I linked to interesting, but I entirely agree with Turkoman that their ratings are just an opinion and shouldn’t be deferentially accepted as gospel.
When you’ve followed racing as long as I have – over 40 years – no one is going to tell me how or what to think and I’m sure many others feel the same way.
I actually just feel lucky because if you’d asked me 15 years ago in 2007 if in my remaining lifetime I expected to see not only the greatest Turf horse ever, but arguably an all-time dirt great too I’d have said “no chance,” adding: “all the true greats (like Sea Bird and Secretariat) were before my time,” but I lived to see “The Mighty Fs” – “Eh?” “Frankel and Flightline, FFS!” – I’ll take that.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"BTW, Ian.
You’ve mentioned that you determine your own ratings. Just as a matter of interest, does your rating agree with Timeform’s 136?
I keep the precise details of my private work confidential, but what I don’t mind saying – if it’s of any interest to you – is that I considered both Flightline’s performances at Del Mar and Keeneland to be exceptional and merit the often overused word “great,” but in terms of putting actual numbers on them I would put the higher figure on Del Mar.
But, like Frankel and Secretariat at their peaks, Flightline has won easily both times and it’s hard to say exactly how much further he could have won by if given the statutory maximum six reminders and ridden right out to the line.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Ratings are always going to be a somewhat subjective art because you are dealing with living breathing animals that are not all going to produce their best performance on any given day at the same time but by applying the same methodology year in year out you can give an idea as to how good a single performance is regardless of the time period it was produced.
The fact that any particular organisation is classed as being the official arbiter of horse racing ratings by the sport’s governing body in the scheme of things doesn’t make their processes and results any more just than Timeform or our own particular ratings method….afterall I don’t think the OR way of meeting up with other countries racing jurisdictions to collaboratively decide the top horses overall rating is the correct way to go but that is where we are.
Even though he was before my time (I was actually born at the end of his Triple Crown year) I have no doubt that Secretariat is the best dirt horse there has been (his Kentucky Derby win saw him run each 2F faster than the previous one and the fact that both that and his Belmont course records still stand almost 50 yrs later tells you all you need to know about him being an out and out freak of a racehorse).
Flightline is very very good but when you talk best of all time you have to nit pick and he wasn’t mature enough to run at 2 (Secretariat was the Champion 2yr old and also voted American Horse of the Year), Flightline never contested any of the Triple Crown races and he never raced on anything but dirt (Secretariat obviously won the Triple Crown and also won the Man of War on turf and then went on to win the Canadian International on turf running against older horses for the first time).
The cold hard truth is that Flightline simply isn’t on that level but there is absolutely no shame in that statement as it only goes to show just how good Big Red was that a horse of Flightline’s immense ability still falls short.
“The cold hard truth”
Translation – “My cold hard opinion”
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I respect the confidentiality and proprietary nature of your rating system, Ian.
LD, well developed argument…
Now, after all is said and done, the cycle begins again next Spring. Can’t wait…
But still some unfinished business with the Japan Cup and the big international meet in Hong Kong in December.
Sea The Stars had the 3 y/o season that dreams are made of.. The greatest season EVER for me CV wise
However it will be pulled apart by the level of his opposition and winning margins not being in double figuresBlackbeard to conquer the World
Translation – “My cold hard opinion”
I would lay money on it being not just mine but in the scheme of things no more/no less valid than anyone else’s opinion for sure.
Horses that do just enough will most like always be slightly underrated unless they have that highly rated adversary to drag a higher performance out of them.
Sea The Stars being a prime example.
“no more/no less valid than anyone else’s opinion for sure.”
As clivexx posted before his departure, someone could hold the opinion that Victoria Beckham is a better author than Shakespeare.
I’ve never read any of her work, but she’d have to go some to beat “Richard III,” the only bit of Shakespeare I’ve ever read.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“As clivexx posted before his departure, someone could hold the opinion that Victoria Beckham is a better author than Shakespeare”.
I would imagine that there are plenty of people out there in this strange old world that would be much more interested in reading something written by Victoria Beckenham than anything good ole Billy Boy wrote…as they say, no accounting for taste.
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