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I’m sure the handicapper was only itching to lump him up a few pounds, very surprised (as I heard Mr Byrnes was too!) to see this horse in the winners enclosure that day. It doesn’t make sense to say the handicapper has forced his hand however, a rating of 141 would be perfect for a raid on a valuable handicap imo. If the horse gets within 10l of the winner saturday he’ll probably be raised another 10-12lbs…
Agreed- he’d be a moral for the Tote Gold Trophy if they could keep him for that. He’s very likely to blow his mark at the weekend by running well without winning. He’s already too highly rated for the Pierse, IMO.
I reckon the race all depends on the pace throughout the race.
If its slow then its between the three market leaders, with binocular probably being the fastest in a finish, katchit maybe outstaying binocular if the pace is the slower side of average.
If Celestial Halo can run the race like the champ hurdle then I could see him winning, with won in the dark unlikely to be far away at a silly price.
If its anywhere in between then its a very hard race to pick, but with the race priced up as it is then the value is clearly in hoping for pace as the top three in the betting have all been outstayed in the past and dont seem much value with that in mind (katchit being a borderline bet as the marketstands).
Katchit is the reigning champion and there is usually a huge difference between good horses and CH winners. In most seasons a CH winner would be a short priced favourite for this
On occasions you get a champion hurdler coming up against a really special indiviual and no matter which way you cut it his task is impossible.
Fast pace slowpace the result wont change as class steals the show.A race that will always stick in my mind is when Magic Court having won the Champion Hurdle was set to give 6 or 7lbs to Salmon Spray in one of these trials. Salmon Spray beat him very easily,hard held and went on to win the Champion Hurdle himself.
If Binocular is going to win the Champion Hurdle I would expect a Salmon Spray type performance tomorrow because if Katchit can make him pull out all the stops or even beat him we will have a new CH fav by 3.20 tomorrow.
Well done to Carvs for getting the word moral into a sentence regarding Charles Byrnes. I never thought I’d see the day.
I suppose Charles Byrnes is the last man that needs a lecture on taking advantage of handicap marks so you’d have to assume Solwhit must be rated very highly if they’re prepared to ignore the handicap route.Hedoesn’tseem tobe rated highlyeoughfor anyone to be backing him for fortunes. Surely this is just a case of the Top Of The Hill Syndicate who own him having a good day out and bit of fun. They have nothing to lose so why not?
I wish them luck but they need a fairy tail and and 2 miracles for his presence to be felt here. Personally I think he will be lucky not to be tailed off in this field.
Stranger things have happened but I just can’t see it.
Anyone sending a horse to Charles Byrnes knows what he is about and he is not a trainer to tilt at windmills by ruining handicap marks in Graded races just so the owners can have a day out. Most owners would much rather have a live candidate in the Tote Gold Trophy or the Pierse in Ireland than a significantly outclassed runner in a Gr2 hurdle.
they need a fairy tail and and 2 miracles for his presence to be felt here. Personally I think he will be lucky not to be tailed off in this field.
He is an outsider, granted, but quite why you should have this view of a horse rated 105p on the Flat by Timeform that has won 3 of his 4 starts in hurdles, most recently seeming to do terrifically well to win without coming under much in the way of pressure, is a mystery. IMO.
I expect Katchit to put in a better performance at Cheltenham with conditions to place emphasis on stamina but the outstanding value for me is again Chomba Womba. I have her as a 4/1 and 7/1 is currently available.
Have also taken a bit of 79/1 for her about the Champion.
I know she might go for the Mares race or might even be retired to stud. But if she puts in a good run tomorrow the owner may well have a change of opinion. She surely has a better than 1.25% chance at time of writing.
Mark
Value Is Everythingwhy is they so many 4 year olds running?
Because they are good enough, or have a lot of potential to be good enough i would imagine.
Binocular, Crack Away Jack, Celestial Halo, all good horses who could be contenders for Group 1s this season.
Because a few of this year 4yous have looked that little bit good this season. Aline through Binocular-Snap Tie- Katchit would suggest he has nothing to be afraid of, and Crackaway Jack hasnt exactly been disgraced, Celestial Halo on more suitable ground than when he met Binocular at aintree is also in with a fair shout.
Just watched a replay of binoculars hurdling debut at ascot (he lost no momentum at the last and looked like he was coming up to the line over a mile at newmarket), cant wait to see him tomorrow, but am hoping CH comes out on top.
I disagree about class winning this race Fists, binocular was pulling away from Captain Cee Bee at cheltenham when McCoy said go only to be reeled in up the run in. If the race had have been a few seconds slower you might say binocular had the mopre class, but in the end captain cee be did. Katchit champ hurdle was a couple of seconds slower and looked much slower so I would think binocular would have been up to winning it.
IMO Binocular could get a slow pace tomorrow and be a 170 horse or he could get a furious pace and be a 120 horse, celestial halo is the other way around.
Pace can easily turn class on it’s head.
With up to one inch of rain forecast to fall on already soft ground overnight, this is going to be the slowest Bula Hurdle for a long time, and a real slog through the mud.
The handicap hurdle today took 4m 17s – that could easily extend to more than 4m 30s for the Bula. To put that in perspective, last year Osana took 3m 59s.
I just can’t see Binocular getting home strongly enough to win such a test of stamina – if he does, then he’ll have well and truly earned the right to be a short priced favourite for March. I’d prefer the older horses if conditions turn out as tough as forecast.
With up to one inch of rain forecast to fall on already soft ground overnight, this is going to be the slowest Bula Hurdle for a long time, and a real slog through the mud.
The handicap hurdle today took 4m 17s – that could easily extend to more than 4m 30s for the Bula. To put that in perspective, last year Osana took 3m 59s.
I just can’t see Binocular getting home strongly enough to win such a test of stamina – if he does, then he’ll have well and truly earned the right to be a short priced favourite for March. I’d prefer the older horses if conditions turn out as tough as forecast.
I agree with regards to Binocular I don’t think this is going to be his cup of tea at all he’s a speed horse and tomorrows contest is going to be a war of attrition which will suit the likes of Katchit.
Celestial Halo is the one I’ve backed not to huge stakes in a trappy looking contest. Goes well fresh, will stay well and his best two hurdles performances have come on good to soft and soft ground so there’s every chance he’ll like the conditions.
Binocular I’d lay all day if I were one to lay horses.
If there is plenty of rain then I would fancy Celestial Halo even more (will have a look on Nicholls teletext column and see what he has to say about him) but am still wary of the lack of support he has had.
Just Rob in the opener tomorrow loves soft ground and is currently 12-1 with paddy power so it will interesting to see how he goes against what look like speed horses dominating the betting for that race.
Edit: Correction, Just Rob is double entered with the grade 2 at Lingfield, with David Dennis booked, which looks his more likely race.
I can see Binocular and Harchibald being non runners. If the former takes part I expect him to go off nearer 3/1 than 2/1 here.
My prices to beat are:
Harchibald 33/1
Katchit 5/1
Binocular 11/4
Celestial Halo 14/1
River Liane 50/1
Solwit 20/1
Crack Away Jack 11/2
Khyber Kym 33/1
Chomba Womba 4/1Mark
Value Is Everything
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