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True enough but do you really think the 2009 is going to be run as slow as the 2008? Why would anyone want to play into Binoculars hands after seeing what he did around Ascot??? Expect it to be more of a slog this time round.
Real pity we are not going to be seeing Captain Cee Bee on a racecourse any time in the near future considering what Binocular has gone on to achieve. He’ll be an 8yo next year and I just have a feeling that we’re never going to see him fulfill his undoubted potential.
True enough but do you really think the 2009 is going to be run as slow as the 2008? Why would anyone want to play into Binoculars hands after seeing what he did around Ascot??? Expect it to be more of a slog this time round.
Exactly andrew, thats how I see it. At the minute all I have for the Champ Hurdle is Binocular at 20s and a dead bet on Captain Cee Bee at 16s. Celestial Halos addition to the field changes the complection of the race entirely IMO however, and I will be factoring him into the race somehow (Coral’s 16s is pretty good on him), and probably another decent traveller aswell (Sizing Europe, Catch Me and Snap Tie all make some appeal, will go against Punjabi, Osana, Crackaway jack, Sublimity and probaly Katchit too), and lay whatever points off on binocular at a later date when his price shortens a bit.
Would think though that if the ground on champ hurdle day is good then Binocular will be unbeatable, but what are the chances of cheltenham not watering before the first day if that is the case.
Real pity we are not going to be seeing Captain Cee Bee on a racecourse any time in the near future considering what Binocular has gone on to achieve. He’ll be an 8yo next year and I just have a feeling that we’re never going to see him fulfill his undoubted potential.
Very true IC, we can only hope…
For what it’s worth, I think Celestial Halo is the value bet, bearing in mind how much potential extra he’ll come on after yesterday, compared to Binocular who I think has little scope for further vast improvement. When Halo is fully wound-up he’ll be more than a match for anything up the Cheltenham hill, especially when Ruby is back to peak fitness. Admittedly, Nick Henderson has had a brilliant season so far but I just sense that come Cheltenham the wheels will fall off.
In terms of value Celestial Halo is stupidly big at the moment. Once (if) the Nicholls yard really starts firing them in again watch his odds plummet. Shouldn’t be anywhere near 14/1 should be half those odds.
I really can’t see what anyone sees in Celestial Halo. He won what has truned out to be a second rate Triumph Hurdle. Binocular has beaten him twice without breaking out of a canter….the horse has no chance. It will take more than a few undualtions and an uphill finsih for him to come anywhere near to turning the tables.
Nichols is desparate to have a Champion Hurdle hose in his yard and he might well have a worthy challenger but itisn’t this fellow. Pierot Lunaire might make the grade but CH simply isn’t good enough.
Mark my words the biggest danger to Binocular is Sizing Europe and when he trots up next week he will be the main subject of this topic not Celestial "I wish I had a champion hurdle horse" Halo
Well, I’m going to rock the Binny Boat of love here…
He was not that impressive imho.
At the end of the race he could have been asked for more, to further stamp his authority over the field….but AP did not ask.
Fair enough, why give him an unnecessary hard race?
I think if Binny had been asked he would not have stretched further away to the line.
He may have the most speed, but why did he not win the Supreme Novices?
Not because Captain Cee Bee is “better,” but because CCB stays better.
I wish you all the best of luck if you have backed Binny Ante P for Chelters, but Sizing Europe is the beast who shall be king come March.
He has the engine, strength and speed to bruise past Binny & Co, whichever way it needs to happen on the day…
Zip
Is this now the champion hurdle forum now? I’m confused.
If it is, trust me: Snap Tie EW.
Well, I’m going to rock the Binny Boat of love here…
He was not that impressive imho.
At the end of the race he could have been asked for more, to further stamp his authority over the field….but AP did not ask.
Fair enough, why give him an unnecessary hard race?
I think if Binny had been asked he would not have stretched further away to the line.
He may have the most speed, but why did he not win the Supreme Novices?
Not because Captain Cee Bee is “better,” but because CCB stays better.
I wish you all the best of luck if you have backed Binny Ante P for Chelters, but Sizing Europe is the beast who shall be king come March.
He has the engine, strength and speed to bruise past Binny & Co, whichever way it needs to happen on the day…
Zip
Sizing Europe does have the right credentials to win a Champion Hurdle you will get no argument from me on that score.
But on the question of staying you ae a mile of the mark. CCB a more mature animal at the time was also in better condition than Binny was and that and only that is the reason he beat him. Binny wans’t running 5 days before the race he was going to Aintree and it wasn’t until the last moment they told Nicky he could run him in the Supreme,
I see Charlie “Istabraq” Swan is raving about Binocular saying he has plenty speed and he stays.
I think you are now in a minority on that score Zippy.
It will be a great race betwen the too but IMO it will be down to jumping and speed not which one stays the best….as much as I like Sizing Europe and he scares me, Binocular gets my vote on both counts.
To be fair, Fists, any immaturity on Binocular’s part was compensated by the 4yo allowance he received in the Supreme Novices.
Whilst I think JP’s horse is far and away the most likely winner of the Champion Hurdle, I don’t think he is bomb-proof, and the circuit (especially if the ground was soft) might just catch him out.
I agree with that- it’s really only stamina that can beat him if he gives his running, but that’s a significant enough doubt to make his current price a joke with 3 months to go. I’ve laid him because he won’t start much shorter on the day and a lot can happen between now and then. Those with fancy ante-post vouchers (what is an ante-post voucher BTW- must be before my time?) might be well advised to hedge a bit at current quotes.
I dion’t think the ground matters to him the way he is put together he gallops and hurdles with such ease and seems to take nothingout of himself when doing it. Granted doing it in soft or heavy ground in the Champion is a differnet ball game but the all have to go through it not just him.
I did look into the possibility a while back and I can’t see it mattering that much
Katchit would want it too soft he was only workmalike when he won on Soft to Heavy in his early days…….. Crack Away Jack would prefer good as would Osana.
The only horse it might help is Sizing Europe as he has won well on soft.
As far as Celestial Halo is concerned if it were up to their knees he still couldn’t win IMO
It’s not often we get heavy ground at Cheltenam but I’m sure he will cope if it happens
Binocular looks a wonderful little horse but my reservation would be that he seems to be extremely speedy. At Ascot or Kempton I would not oppose him but if he’s to be beaten it will be at Cheltenham. I’m not saying he can’t win the Champion Hurdle but I think Cheltenham will suit horses like Crack Away Jack and Katchit much more than Ascot, as will the bigger field.
I just have the nagging doubt that the strong pace and the uphill/downhill nature of Cheltenham might just take the sting out of Binocular’s finishing kick.
Fists, I think you have Celestial Halo very much underestimated, and you dont see just how much of a threat he is. They are such oppositie types of horses, yet celestial halo has met Binocular twice on binoculars ideal conditions (which arent great for CHs style of running) and he has performed with credit both times, without having anywhere near the speed to deal with binocular on each occasion.
You have to actually look at what Celestial Halo done at cheltenham on more suitable conditions to appreciate just how good he is. He went from the front and set a furious pace, the strongest of the entire festival, not only that but he was still sound enough to be the front at the end of the race. That was such a unique performance that the form is hardly going to work out, because there has not been another race like it since,let alone one featuring the contenders of that race, CH is prob the only horse likely to frank that form regularly (especially as the only other front runner was Franchoek and CH ruined him that day), because he dictates those terms.
There is not another horse in the entire champ hurdle contenders list who would even attempt that, let alone pull it off. Celestial Halo MAY be able to win a champ hurdle using those tactics, if the ground is as it was again this year, but may set it up for a traveller who has been sat off the pace throughout and full of running.
What he will do however is run the speed horses out of the race, binocular will not be able to muster his amazing speed (which is clearly the best in the division), and the race is likely to be a measure of stamina, up the hill. Binocular will be fighting up the hill in a stamina battle wih the likes of Catch Me, Sizing Europe, Snap Tie, Celestial Halo and maybe even Hardy Eustace.
if the ground at cheltenham is good, binocular is as close to a cast iron cert as your likely to get, as he is probably the best good ground 2 mle hurdler in years. But what you must acknowledge fists is that if it is gd-sft or worse then regardless of whether CH beats him at cheltenham or not, he is still the biggest threat to Binocular picking up a win there, because he will make it as far from ideal for Binocular as it could possibly get.
I love binocular and he is one of my favorite horses in training, but nicholls dicision to send CH for this is huge kick in the nuts for his Binos chances. I agree with Carvs about hedging the bet.
A stiffer test will no doubt be right up CH’s street and Cheltenham will provide it.
Also, horses that race prominent seem to go very well on the course and you’ve got a good few pounds off already. CH is looking a very sound huge e/w punt IMO.
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I agree it would be wrong to under-estimate Celestial Halo on Saturday’s run, just as it is wrong to over-rate Binocular on his 2 defeats of the horse.
For all that he went 15l clear of the rest on Saturday, CH wasn’t given a hard race, and allowed the others a chance they won’t get at Cheltenham by easing the pace in the second half of the race.
PN and Ruby know exactly what they’ve got, and had no intention of leaving the Champion Hurdle behind by giving the horse a hard race in such unsuitable circumstances. It will be a different story at Cheltenham, where the ground is bound to be much softer (whatever the CoC decides to call it), the pace more relentless, and the finishing hill will all add up to make the race a whole lot closer than it has been between the 2 thus far.
Bear in mind that Paul Nicholls has prevaricated since before the Triumph Hurdle on whether CH was a true Champion Hurdle contender, yet had no hesitation on nominating that as his target immediately after Saturday’s race.
There is little doubt that Binocular is a top class prospect for the race, there is also little doubt that he hasn’t yet faced the kind of test Celestial Halo is almost certain to set him come March
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