January 19, 2008 at 12:53 #6321
Did anyone just see that race, I think that could be the triumph winner, I backed it yesterday for the triumph at 33s as soon as i saw that henderson was sending it to ascot class 3 and not the class5, it was entered for on monday coming.
I noticed the horse over christmas when it was enetered to debut in the franchoek race and it had the profile ofa good 2 mile hurler on its flat form.
Was backed extremely heavily in the triumph market between yesterday and today and was 20-1 when it went off for that race, despite being 33s yesterday, a lot of money must have went on for that as there is quite a bit of money in the triumph market now already on celestial halo and franchoek, reckon that will be favorite by the end of the week though, most bookies have went 8s already.
It moved clear of the field there with some venom, the second and third both looked in form and full of running but never got near to him.January 19, 2008 at 13:38 #136409
That is the second mcmanus horse this week to attract a massive antepost gamble, Captain Cee Bee went 33s into 12s and 14s for the supreme novice this week, it hadnt had a recent run, had no decent entries confirmed and I couldnt find any recent reports about it. I already had khyber kim backed for that race, but had a safety on captain cee bee just in case KK doesnt make it to chelto.January 19, 2008 at 16:36 #136440carvillshillParticipant
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He certainly has a good lep in him and shows a good attitude and aptitude for hurdling and he’s not trained by Jonjo
I see James is out to get him-I’d say his 10/1 will be popular, but is about the right price. He’ll probably head for the Adonis now and we’ll find out if he’s a contender.January 22, 2008 at 19:29 #137055
Am considering another bet on Binocular as think 8s is still not a bad price, and I honestly think that Franchoek will get beaten or run close on saturday. I dont really rate franchoek that much I think he was the first to show potential but has always looked a consistent but very moderate horse with no real sparkle about how he performs. And at kempton looked to be beating little.
Almost all of the decent looking juvenile novices Ive seen have come out after christmas, Binocular, I have dreamed, Numide (a horse I have earmarked to thrive on heavy), Celestial Halo, even Squadron looked like he should improve to be competitive.
Harper Valley beat Franchoek 1 1/2lengths, taking 7lbs but I suspect may possibly have more to offer, it is a put off, however, that he has recieved virtually no market support on his 10s-14s since then.
Celestial Halo on the other hand looks to me like an honest grinder and if its a grinders year then he’ll be thereabouts, however Binocular to me is the smartest juvenile novice Ive seen thus far though, and I think his rating of 122 for that run is ridiculously and will soon be put right, he just has loads burst speed and a very nice action in the way he runs which suggests to me he’ll be even better on better ground. He looked like he jumped the last on saturday at full pelt and never lost any moment whatsoever.
I am not going to back him yet until I see fridays decs first though as the grey berry has been entered in a class4 (which hes been pulled from) and has an entry in a competitive looking class3 and a moderate looking class5, if he gets entered in the decs for the class3 it wuill be confident move and I’ll have another little bet on him first and see how his races pans out before having another on bino, as dont see his preice changing too much before saturday.January 22, 2008 at 23:49 #137134LetsGetRacingMember
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Binocular beat little of note with Metaphoric failing to run to form, absolutely loved the soft ground (action and breeding say he needs it) and will have little improvement to come in terms of his jumping. JP had a similar type in Tritonix last season, and Henderson in Punjabi, and both failedto cut it against Triumph winner Katchit.
The 8/1 is ridiculously low and well worth laying.January 23, 2008 at 00:12 #137140
Its a fair point, but Metaphoric is by montjeu and wheras I love backing montjeus, 2 miles over hurdles more often than not proves too sharp for them, especially if they have a stamina influence on the dam side. They are often left one paced in races which are run a slower than normal clip, as saturdays race was.
Metaphoric looked like a danger to me as he was cruising until the tempo was raised and it was the second (who apparently isnt too badly rated in the king stable) and the 3rd (who was the third fav) who are both bred for more speed and were both full of running and looked to be running well right to the line that boosts the form for me.
I think Bino could still improve on his allround jumping and there is certainly a possibility that he will be best on softer conditions.
Either one of us could be right, but Im ever optimistic…January 24, 2008 at 17:44 #137460
Another big gamble is going on with the JP McManus horse AIGLE D’OR at the minute, prior to his run in the ballymore trial on saturday, a few companys have him at 10 and 11s and william hills actually has him as favorite ahead of breedsbreeze. That suggests to me that he’s expect to hose up on saturday…January 24, 2008 at 17:53 #137462moehatParticipant
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can anyone tell me more about Aigle D’Or please – I’ve got him written down in my list of horses to follow this season – my notes just say ‘better than Zebra’ v. good [it made sense at the time!]January 24, 2008 at 18:03 #137463
The Zebra probably refers to hendersons south african group1 winning flat horse Zebra Crossing, it possible henderson has quoted that aigle d’or was better than ZB and perhaps you have written it down to watch for at a later date.
Aigle d’or was a 1m4f listed winner in france who won his hurdles debut by 17 lengths and is quite well rated off it, I missed the race though and can’t say how he looked, but there certainly looks to be a lot of confidence behind him.January 24, 2008 at 18:12 #137466moehatParticipant
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thanks; Aigle D’Or 12/1 with Corals at the moment for the Ballymore; is it unusual for Nicky Henderson to train for JP?January 24, 2008 at 18:16 #137467LetsGetRacingMember
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His victory at Lingfield was impressive, but picking holes in the form really isn’t difficult. The ground was desperate, Wind Instrument (second) had only just returned from 18 months off the track – albeit having shown up well in the Festival bumper – and Inchloch (third) didn’t stay and can hardly be rated a fair yardstick.
Henderson does speak highly of him though, so the gamble that has seemingly developed is hardly a surprise.
The race on Saturday doesn’t look overly strong at first glance, with the plethora of 1s in the form column amounting to relatively little. The ground is predictably soft, and 2m 4f around Cheltenham in those conditions is certainly going to seperate the men from the boys.
At this stage both Hold Em and Helens Vision interest me. I’d expect the latter to improve markedly on the tame performace she put in behind Khyber Kim last time, and the former rates an animal of some interest. He was smart in bumpers, just losing out in a Graded event at Aintree under a penalty, and took well to hurdling when easily accounting for an Alan King odds-on chance at Hereford (despite looking novicey at times and appearing to dislike the ground).January 24, 2008 at 19:05 #137477
I spotted Hold’em last time out and never understood why he was behind the king horse in the betting as he looked to have loads of potential and would have been the one i’d have backed but I ended up going out that afternoon and missed backing him in the race, caught the re-run later on ATR and thought hold’em won quite easily, never really looked troubled at all by King’s horse, if I remember.
I generally find that theres more chance of a horse being underrated when it wins mid week and its hard to assess horses who never looked troubled in their races as its hard to guess how much more they would have had if they had been challenged, but its certainly possible that his debut could have been as good as Aigle’ dor’s and he too should have improvement in him.
It is therefore entirely possible that he is actually well handicapped at present and he is entered in a class 2 handicap on saturday aswell as the aigle d’or and khyber kim race, no jockey booking for any of the races yet though. Will keep an eye out for him on saturday.January 24, 2008 at 19:29 #137484ReasonoverFaithMember
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Don’t want to be accused of stating the obvious here folks, but if you want to see the McManus horse then just type the name in the search box at At The Races and you can see his performance at Lingfield.January 24, 2008 at 23:06 #137554
Cheers for that ROF, Ive never used that facility before and so just been watching back a few races, aigle d’or did look pretty good, but the fall of the horse who would have been second made the result look much better, would still have been a fairly easy victory though.
Hold’em looked even better watching it back than I remembered, I remembered he’d won easily, and that the favorite was incapable of giving him a race but had forgot that the jockey didnt even ride him once and he just cruised over the line.January 25, 2008 at 19:30 #137710Fist of Fury 2k8Member
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Would hate to be your bookie if you had done 50p mixed accumulators with that lot………..would pay anywhere between 1 1/2 million and 2 1/2 million quid…..looking at prices now and especially digging out Money Trix at 20/1 and Binocular at 33/1 who are both hugely fancied is a great piece of judgment.
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