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I’ve ended with another modest month finishing about 2 points up. It was also probably my dullest month with very few fluctuations in profit, all very WLL-WLL-WLL etc etc. Not that that’s a bad thing necessarily.
I staked 163 bets in September so my final return was 30pts from 1071 bets in total or a measly 2.8% profit on t/o. (Nb. by ‘bets’ I really mean races as I very often split stakes, have savers etc. However the amount staked per race is always the same at £200.)
May 98 -3
June 201 +11
July 317 +17
August 292 + 3
Sept 163 +2As you can see, whilst I’ve made a profit in 4 out of 5 months, the amounts have been negligible in the last two months. In fact, since 1st August I’ve made just 5pts from 455 bets which is enough to test anyone’s patience.
There’s a great quote from Michael Caine’s character Lawrence addressing his student Freddy (Steve Martin) in the very funny Dirty Rotten Scoundrels which seems entirely apposite:
“Freddy, as a younger man, I was a sculptor, a painter, and a musician. There was just one problem: I wasn’t very good. As a matter of fact, I was dreadful. I finally came to the frustrating conclusion that I had taste and style, but not talent. I knew my limitations. We all have our limitations, Freddy. Fortunately, I discovered that taste and style were commodities that people desired. Freddy, what I am saying is: know your limitations. You are a moron.”
In many ways, I am a superb gambler. Seriously, I’m the best you’ll ever meet. I work hard at it. I’m diligent. I take my time. I don’t get emotionally attached. When I lose I’m not fazed. And I’m never less than 100% happy with every bet at the time of striking it.
But like Lawrence *sigh*, there is just one problem: I’m not very good at. As a matter of fact, I’m dreadful.
In cash terms I am approximately £5900 up over the period. However, based on a 36 hour week (6 days @ 6 hours, no Sundays) I calculate that to be 756 hours worked (and that may be understating it) equating to a rate of £7.80 p/hour. The minimum wage is £6.31. I think that speaks for itself.
The problem here is not lack of effort, it’s just lack of talent. To spend an entire summer studying like mad in return for shop assistant rates is not a viable business for me.
I’m not totally turning my back on the pro-gambling business but one has to ask the question that if you can’t make it viably pay in the days of summer – and it’s been a good summer for consistent ground – then when are you planning to make a decent profit?
For the moment at least, I’m out.
Mike
Well played Mike , a truly good report , and honest to the core
a thought for you
maybe in a couple of years after this experience has sunk in , you will rediscover an edge that will be more profitable , someone with your knowledge and ability should make money sometime , for sure
best of luck and thanks for sharing the good , bad and ugly
Ricky
Initial thought Mike is that you’re being unnecessarily self-disparaging. Ignoring the ‘mimimum wage’ comparison for a moment and just considering the figure of £5900 profit (that is net profit after all expenses presumably) then I would ask myself: how many other race-punters make a similar, more than handy amount? A small percentage of the whole I’d confidently surmise and proceed to pat myself on the back despite the hard grind required for a superficially meagre ‘hourly wage’
Returning to this minimum wage comparison. Would you rather do a job you hate for say £20 an hour or one you enjoy for £7.80 an hour, being in the happy position (as I think you reported at the outset of your campaign) of having the cushion of savings to sit comfortably on? I am here assuming you enjoy betting of course
The shop assistant, shelf stacker, road sweeper, lavatory attendant, call centre operative on near-minimum wage who sets the alarm to rise at an ungodly hour with a weary huff ‘n’ puff ‘oh god another day’ or the punter on minimum wage who is doing the work of his choice and doesn’t set the alarm needing to rise at a godly hour with a hop, skip and jump out of bed at the thought of another absorbing could-be-anything-isn’t-it-exciting day
The nuts ‘n’ bolts of the veracity of that profit and whether it’s down to ‘luck’ rather than proven edge and may well have been -£5900 at another time in another set of races is of course near-impossible to know, though your overall profit-on-turnover or return-on-investment (I’ve never been clear as to the difference) may offer a clue. Less than 4% it may be dodgy, I’d suggest
Anyway, thanks very much for sharing your campaign with us; it’s been an interesting and it goes without saying entertaining read
Not tempted by the Winter Game then? It’s all I’m any good at, long term
Thanks for the posts, Betlarge.
They’ve been most enlightening.
I think most of us at sometime of ‘turning pro’ but, speaking personally, never finding the courage.
Your very honest reporting has been a breath of fresh air.
Colin
Congratulations! Over a representative period of time you made a profit. You are in the top 2% (just a guess!) of people who bet on horse racing! Now, not a lot people know that.
Do minimum wage earners have to pay national insurance on their income? You are much better off than they are. And you get to do a cleaner, more challenging job than they do, in an environment you like. And you have full control over what you do and when you do it. However, if you were previously an investment banker earning £500,000 a year, I should go back to the day job.
I obviously do not know your personal circumstances, but is this not a little soon to be giving up? There are various books/articles that say that 10,000 hours of purposeful practice will make perfect. Try Mathew Syed’s book “Bounce: The myth of talent and the power of practice”, and/or look at academic studies on the internet about it. I would expect that practice and experience are big improvement factors in getting better results from gambling on horse racing. The extra 756 hours you put into it over the Summer will have improved your judgement already.
By the look of the previous posts about your experiment, you have sensibly stuck to the approach you started with. But that was just the start. That was just the experiment. Can you not use your analytical skills on your methods and data of the last few months, and your judgement, to modify when and how you bet?
As for consistent ground in the Summer being a good for your betting, perhaps changeable ground will be even better for you. Your diligence and experience will put you in with a better chance than the average punter when ground conditions change, and should give you bigger prices about the horses you bet on, and better chances of not betting on horses with poor value in the conditions.
Whichever way you decide to go, thanks for sharing that part of experiment with us. I hope you find a way to continue. If you do, you are almost certain to get better at it, rather than worse.
PS
The ubiquitous WD-40 lubricant got its name because the first 39 experiments failed. WD-40 literally stands for “Water Displacement–40th Attempt.”
“Unsatisfactory results are simply data, providing new information to adjust your approach going forward. “
I’ve ended with another modest month finishing about 2 points up. It was also probably my dullest month with very few fluctuations in profit, all very WLL-WLL-WLL etc etc. Not that that’s a bad thing necessarily.
I staked 163 bets in September so my final return was 30pts from 1071 bets in total or a measly 2.8% profit on t/o. (Nb. by ‘bets’ I really mean races as I very often split stakes, have savers etc. However the amount staked per race is always the same at £200.)
May 98 -3
June 201 +11
July 317 +17
August 292 + 3
Sept 163 +2As you can see, whilst I’ve made a profit in 4 out of 5 months, the amounts have been negligible in the last two months. In fact, since 1st August I’ve made just 5pts from 455 bets which is enough to test anyone’s patience.
There’s a great quote from Michael Caine’s character Lawrence addressing his student Freddy (Steve Martin) in the very funny
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
which seems entirely apposite:
"Freddy, as a younger man, I was a sculptor, a painter, and a musician. There was just one problem: I wasn’t very good. As a matter of fact, I was dreadful. I finally came to the frustrating conclusion that I had taste and style, but not talent. I knew my limitations. We all have our limitations, Freddy. Fortunately, I discovered that taste and style were commodities that people desired. Freddy, what I am saying is: know your limitations. You are a moron."
In many ways, I am a superb gambler. Seriously, I’m the best you’ll ever meet. I work hard at it. I’m diligent. I take my time. I don’t get emotionally attached. When I lose I’m not fazed. And I’m never less than 100% happy with every bet at the time of striking it.
But like Lawrence *sigh*, there is just one problem: I’m not very good at. As a matter of fact, I’m dreadful.
In cash terms I am approximately £5900 up over the period. However, based on a 36 hour week (6 days @ 6 hours, no Sundays) I calculate that to be 756 hours worked (and that may be understating it) equating to a rate of £7.80 p/hour. The minimum wage is £6.31. I think that speaks for itself.
The problem here is not lack of effort, it’s just lack of talent. To spend an entire summer studying like mad in return for shop assistant rates is not a viable business for me.
I’m not totally turning my back on the pro-gambling business but one has to ask the question that if you can’t make it viably pay in the days of summer – and it’s been a good summer for consistent ground – then when are you planning to make a decent profit?
For the moment at least, I’m out.
Mike
Can only echo Drone and others points Mike. I have good years and bad, can be +23% up or -5% down. If I can make an average of 10 or 12% I am happy. And if only counting one code (flat or jumps) it would be a lot more variable. To me, 5 months sounds far too short a time-span to be giving up (even if it is just temporary). May be your expectation was too great, which I can understand if trying to maintain a previously good lifestyle?
Really don’t think you’ve done so bad, but if you really don’t believe you’re good enough at this time Mike; then may be consider changing your form book. Can highly recommend (and seems to me you’ve got the "talent" required to be successful with) Timeform Race Passes.
Anyway, thanks for sharing Mike and good luck in whatever you decide (not that there is such a thing as luck).
Value Is EverythingInitial thought Mike is that you’re being unnecessarily self-disparaging.
C of E hairshirt mentality. It’s the Papists that have all the fun. Everyone knows that.
Ignoring the ‘mimimum wage’ comparison for a moment and just considering the figure of £5900 profit (that is net profit after all expenses presumably) then I would ask myself: how many other race-punters make a similar, more than handy amount? A small percentage of the whole I’d confidently surmise and proceed to pat myself on the back despite the hard grind required for a superficially meagre ‘hourly wage’
Returning to this minimum wage comparison. Would you rather do a job you hate for say £20 an hour or one you enjoy for £7.80 an hour, being in the happy position (as I think you reported at the outset of your campaign) of having the cushion of savings to sit comfortably on? I am here assuming you enjoy betting of course
The shop assistant, shelf stacker, road sweeper, lavatory attendant, call centre operative on near-minimum wage who sets the alarm to rise at an ungodly hour with a weary huff ‘n’ puff ‘oh god another day’ or the punter on minimum wage who is doing the work of his choice and doesn’t set the alarm needing to rise at a godly hour with a hop, skip and jump out of bed at the thought of another absorbing could-be-anything-isn’t-it-exciting day
The nuts ‘n’ bolts of the veracity of that profit and whether it’s down to ‘luck’ rather than proven edge and may well have been -£5900 at another time in another set of races is of course near-impossible to know, though your overall profit-on-turnover or return-on-investment (I’ve never been clear as to the difference) may offer a clue. Less than 4% it may be dodgy, I’d suggest
Anyway, thanks very much for sharing your campaign with us; it’s been an interesting and it goes without saying entertaining read
Not tempted by the Winter Game then? It’s all I’m any good at, long term
I think we all apply our personal wants and needs to these situations but it’s not so much the small amount won that troubles me but the tiny profit margin. The last time I bet seriously – in 2009 – things were wildly different. I had a vastly better margin and won a huge amount more. As I have bet in a similar style – albeit more cautiously this time round, with more savers – I suppose I was hoping for a similar result.
I read a statistical piece by some diehard Aussie who was ‘proving’ that Australia were every bit as good as England in this summer’s Ashes. It started with the remarkable words: "If we ignore the Lords Test…" Sorry, the Test that England won easily you mean?
I mention this because one of my winners paid 22/1 BFSP which accounted for about three grand of that profit in one hit. Obviously, as with our Antipodean buddy above, the logic of randomly ‘removing’ your best winner from the equation is somewhat ridiculous, but even so…
Furthermore, I have found it an utter grind in the last few weeks to the extent that I cannot believe I’ll ever bet seriously on Flat racing again. Honestly, every day just melded into the previous one and then into the next. I can’t say I massively enjoyed the second half of summer but then I was hardly making any money.
Mike
Congratulations! Over a representative period of time you made a profit. You are in the top 2% (just a guess!) of people who bet on horse racing! Now, not a lot people know that.
Do minimum wage earners have to pay national insurance on their income? You are much better off than they are. And you get to do a cleaner, more challenging job than they do, in an environment you like. And you have full control over what you do and when you do it. However, if you were previously an investment banker earning £500,000 a year, I should go back to the day job.
I obviously do not know your personal circumstances, but is this not a little soon to be giving up? There are various books/articles that say that 10,000 hours of purposeful practice will make perfect. Try Mathew Syed’s book “Bounce: The myth of talent and the power of practice”, and/or look at academic studies on the internet about it. I would expect that practice and experience are big improvement factors in getting better results from gambling on horse racing. The extra 756 hours you put into it over the Summer will have improved your judgement already.
By the look of the previous posts about your experiment, you have sensibly stuck to the approach you started with. But that was just the start. That was just the experiment. Can you not use your analytical skills on your methods and data of the last few months, and your judgement, to modify when and how you bet?
As for consistent ground in the Summer being a good for your betting, perhaps changeable ground will be even better for you. Your diligence and experience will put you in with a better chance than the average punter when ground conditions change, and should give you bigger prices about the horses you bet on, and better chances of not betting on horses with poor value in the conditions.
Whichever way you decide to go, thanks for sharing that part of experiment with us. I hope you find a way to continue. If you do, you are almost certain to get better at it, rather than worse.
PS
The ubiquitous WD-40 lubricant got its name because the first 39 experiments failed. WD-40 literally stands for “Water Displacement–40th Attempt.”
“Unsatisfactory results are simply data, providing new information to adjust your approach going forward. “
Thanks MV for an excellent perspective-laden post.
Note: I’ve never been a Merchant Banker but a number of cockneys have called me one.
I’ll certainly give the nerdy ping-pongist Matthew Syed’s book a go. He writes well in The Times and he’s an excellent, if somewhat weighty guest on various sports chat programs, certainly elevating them above England’s new beau Rickie Lambert (Saturday):
"Dani did terrifically for his goal – he’s hit it, got it on target and it’s gone in the back of the net."
I do like the incurable optimism that you exude and am happy to put my experience down to ‘practice’ for the next time round!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Rrrz0ZfRc
Mike
Can only echo Drone and others points Mike. I have good years and bad, can be +23% up or -5% down. If I can make an average of 10 or 12% I am happy. And if only counting one code (flat or jumps) it would be a lot more variable. To me, 5 months sounds far too short a time-span to be giving up (even if it is just temporary). May be your expectation was too great, which I can understand if trying to maintain a previously good lifestyle?
Really don’t think you’ve done so bad, but if you really don’t believe you’re good enough at this time Mike; then may be consider changing your form book. Can highly recommend (and seems to me you’ve got the "talent" required to be successful with) Timeform Race Passes.
Anyway, thanks for sharing Mike and good luck in whatever you decide (not that there is such a thing as luck).
To be honest I think I’ve reached a bit of a watershed with Flat race betting.
I’m not actually that interested in the game, my passion has always been for Jumps racing. The sole reason I chose to bet on this Flat season was that I’d done it so successfully four years ago. I thought it would be merely a case of applying myself in the same fashion as I had done in 2009.
Einstein said that the definition of insanity was doing the same experiment reapeatedly and expecting different results. Well, it just shows what a thicko he was, as I was doing the same experiment and getting different results.
I’ll certainly check out Timeform (I haven’t looked at them for years!) as I may find it adds something I’m obviously missing.
I’m not entirely ruling out a return to serious betting but realistically it would have to be less intense than the last five months (fewer bets definitely, bigger stakes perhaps?) and probably involve a lot more jump racing which at least I have a more genuine interest in.
Mike
Well played Mike , a truly good report , and honest to the core
a thought for you
maybe in a couple of years after this experience has sunk in , you will rediscover an edge that will be more profitable , someone with your knowledge and ability should make money sometime , for sure
best of luck and thanks for sharing the good , bad and ugly
Ricky
Thanks Ricky.
I hope you’re right! If you’re not, not the end of the world is it?
Mike
Thanks for the posts, Betlarge.
They’ve been most enlightening.
I think most of us at sometime of ‘turning pro’ but, speaking personally, never finding the courage.
Your very honest reporting has been a breath of fresh air.
Colin
Thanks Colin.
It’s not really courage to do this, just a bit of adventure really.
Over the years, every time I hear a professional punter they’re always telling people not to have a go at doing the same. They’re only saying this to obliquely infer that they are somehow ‘special’. Well, they’re not.
I’m quite the reverse. If anyone’s in a position to give it a go then I’d strongly recommend they do.
We can all die wondering can’t we?
Mike
Very wise Mike.
Convinced if a punter is not enjoying form study he/she does not look at the race correctly (ie profitably). Not selecting the value bet/s.A day Timeform Race Pass costs a tenner. You could investigate and decide if what they have to offer is something you’re interested in Mike. If subscribing it costs £70 a month. Should also cut down on time studying once used to it.
I don’t think Einstein had gambling in mind with his definition of insanity.
Value Is EverythingExcellent post Betlarge, I have found both this and your previous posts on the same topic very interesting and informative.
Two comments I would add, both of which have been touched on in previous replies –
1. Congratulations on your profit made, a terrific achievement in my opinion.
2. The returns may not be acceptable in your opinion, but I’m sure you have enjoyed every hour ‘worked’, whilst us ‘mere mortals’ earn our corn bored to tears.Betlarge,
First of all, congratulations on actually making a profit – I don’t know about you but the satisfaction for me in profiting from a race where I forecast the outcome correctly, outweighs the paycheck I receive for my weekly grind. I tip my hat to you for having the cajones to give it a go.
Just a couple of observations from afar; I also think that a 5 month timeframe is too short to gauge your overall success. Could you perhaps extend your season to include the all-weather (not that I’m a big fan but I’m guessing that patterns emerge more easily than on the flat)? Also, you mentioned that you bet $200 on every race that you bet on – why? I understand that good money management dictates that you only have a certain percentage of your bankroll in play at any one time but if your object to take as much money as possible out of the ring while preserving your capital, why not up your stakes (within the $200 of course) for your larger priced fancies? Maybe I’m way off base, but the idea would be to pounce on any weakness that you perceive in the market. On the flip side, scale back your stakes on those hum-drum even-money type favorites where the statistical results rarely back-up the needed outlay.
Personally, I think a gambler needs an edge over the straightforward win bet single – be it e/w trebles or whatever – but I understand the desire to choose singles.
Best regards – Karl
Betlarge,
First of all, congratulations on actually making a profit – I don’t know about you but the satisfaction for me in profiting from a race where I forecast the outcome correctly, outweighs the paycheck I receive for my weekly grind. I tip my hat to you for having the cajones to give it a go.
Just a couple of observations from afar; I also think that a 5 month timeframe is too short to gauge your overall success. Could you perhaps extend your season to include the all-weather (not that I’m a big fan but I’m guessing that patterns emerge more easily than on the flat)? Also, you mentioned that you bet $200 on every race that you bet on – why? I understand that good money management dictates that you only have a certain percentage of your bankroll in play at any one time but if your object to take as much money as possible out of the ring while preserving your capital, why not up your stakes (within the $200 of course) for your larger priced fancies? Maybe I’m way off base, but the idea would be to pounce on any weakness that you perceive in the market. On the flip side, scale back your stakes on those hum-drum even-money type favorites where the statistical results rarely back-up the needed outlay.
Personally, I think a gambler needs an edge over the straightforward win bet single – be it e/w trebles or whatever – but I understand the desire to choose singles.
Best regards – Karl
Thanks Karl
I am happy with the staking, which was a standard £200 a race sometimes as a straight single but more often with a saver or savers included. I would always try to have a ‘view’, insamuch as one horse would carry the majority of the stake, but I also had a fair number of straight split bets with two horses.
The idea of lumping more on higher priced selections is not one I would be comfortable with but each to his own.
A number of people have commentated on five months as being too short a period to determine success. But surely it’s number of bets and thus turnover that counts? I’ve had well over a thousand bets in that time which is a very, very active period of betting. I would contend that’s good enough to prove one’s mettle or otherwise.
Mike
A worthwhile experiment, Mike, and the most interesting thread I’ve ever seen on the forum. I think 5 months is plenty time to decide if you have the emotional aptitude for pro-punting. That, above all, in my opinion is the key factor.
Of course, form knowledge and brutal hard work are prerequisites, but you need to be that fella out of Mr Kipling’s
If
, to make it in the long term. I wouldn’t even attempt it. I know I can probably squeeze a small profit out a season’s punting for fun. I know I can hole a three-foot putt for fun. When there’s a hot brand in your brain marked ‘You need to make this to feed yourself/family/dog’, it’s a whole different prospect.
Graham Cunningham was the man who summed it up, for me at least, not through words, but through actions. I respect his judgement 95% of the time. Occasionally he gets fixed on something and won’t let it go (a bit like most of us, I suppose).
You might know that Graham started a tipping service online a few years back. He gave everyone a free month to establish himself and knocked it out the park regularly, ending up with a fat profit. As soon as he began charging, the pressure was on. A short run of bad results had him questioning his choices and ability and very soon afterwards the game was up. He couldn’t handle the responsibility to the folks paying him to pick winners. For clarity, I’ve not spoken to him about it, this is just my reading of what happened.
What I took from your post last month was that a sudden turn of fortunes affected you noticeably…maybe I’m wrong.
The other biggy is that you mentioned how little, if any enjoyment you were getting from it toward the end. I think you’ll do a lot better now and go back to getting plenty fun from it as well as some profit.
Congratulations on both trying and on making the right decision (imo) at the right time.
The jumps will soon be here. Cue Card will be coming over the Kempton horizon on Boxing Day, his saddlebags stuffed with winnings. Fill yer boots!
Thanks Karl
I am happy with the staking, which was a standard £200 a race sometimes as a straight single but more often with a saver or savers included. I would always try to have a ‘view’, insamuch as one horse would carry the majority of the stake, but I also had a fair number of straight split bets with two horses.
The idea of lumping more on higher priced selections is not one I would be comfortable with but each to his own.
A number of people have commentated on five months as being too short a period to determine success. But surely it’s number of bets and thus turnover that counts? I’ve had well over a thousand bets in that time which is a very, very active period of betting. I would contend that’s good enough to prove one’s mettle or otherwise.
Mike
I knew you had a lot of bets Mike, but did not realise it was that many. Correct, over 1000 bets should be enough to tell whether a punter is on the right grounds. Surprised a profit was made at all pushing so many bets/races in to such a small space of time. May be it’s here where a change needs to happen if you’re to make a go of things Mike. I know it’s possible to say without that number of bets you would not have made as much profit. But you’d probably enjoy it more with fewer bets and make more because of it.
I wouldn’t lump on outsiders Mike, but as I said on (I think) your last thread; consider putting more on those you believe are exceptional value. Or if that does not appeal, put on more on short prices, but also putting enough on the outsiders to make more profit on them.
Why have an arbitary stake of £200 per race Mike? For sure, have an average amount if that’s what you feel is needed, just have less on some than others.
Value Is Everything
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