Can anyone explain why this horse has been dropped 5lb in the official ratings for finishing a close second (in a race arguably it should or could have won) last time out?
As I’ve said before, I’m not a ratings person so don’t know the ins and outs of how the handicapper works, but I would have thought his last run was nowhere near bad enough to be dropped 5lbs – or is it that the drop in ratings was on a previous effort?
Anyway, regardless of that, Bethanys Boy looks a decent bet today doesn’t he? Yes today is a handicap, but on paper today’s race doesn’t look much stronger than a claimer to be honest. If there were doubts about the horses lasting 12 furlong last time then surely the drop back to 10 furlong will be ideal. Neil Callan is a top AW jockey and replaces Nicky Mackay and the horse clearly is in good heart. The only worry is the track – first time round Lingfield.
He finished behind a 58 rated horse last time in a claimer, with a 52 rated horse in third. He was getting weight from both of them, so the drop to 55 is justified on the basis of that form, although unusually generous given the circumstances.
He’d previously been beaten in a seller at level weights by a horse rated 59, so there were two pieces of evidence that suggested a rating of 60 was too high on his current form.
I’d have expected a 2lb drop myself, with the possibility of a bigger cut if he was beaten again off 58.
Had to laugh at the ‘Neil Callan, top all-weather jockey’ remark, Mikky.
A much needed smile has now graced my previously sullen gaze
I didn’t mean top as in the very best – I meant top as in one of the best AW jockeys. In fact, didn’t he win the top AW jockey award last season? So although what I said is just an opinion, it’s backed up by stats