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I don’t think Sesentas young claimer had ridden at York before and FOA’s draw should help. I reckon my 4th horse is definately going to be Toe the Line; he was a very good horse a while back and is entered in a CL1 race in Ireland so they must think something of him.
An outsider worth considering is John Reel. He produced solid, consistent efforts on the AW over the winter, which catapulted his handicap mark to 100 before his turf debut on the level this season. His form figures aren’t inspiring, but he has contested some hot races, ranging from twelve furlongs (Old Newton Cup) to the Chester Cup marathon of two miles-two. His average defeat in four turf starts is a mere five and a half lengths, and the capable Tom Marquand will take a much appreciated 5lb off his back.
Ajman Bridge deserves to land a decent prize after a string of quality efforts in some of the most recognisable handicaps in the calendar. He appeared to relish the step up in trip last time and is sure to run his race once again.
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
Another outsider I’ve been looking at is Litigant. Obviously been off the track for a long time but they must think they’ve got him fit enough to run. I know all the stats are against him but he’s a nice price at 40/1.Changed my mind; 4th horse definately Toe the Line. So that’s Toe the Line, Nearly Caught, Astronereus and Fun Mac.
Fields Of Athenry is totally friendless this morning and right out to 9/1 in the betting. You have to be concerned about any runner that happens to but an Aidan O’Brien horse who is one of the leading fancies for the St Leger drifting like Robert Maxwell on the ocean has to set alarm bells off.
The money has been for the Irish horses, Clondaw Warrior and Quick Jack. The former horse found his form on the flat big time and it was anticipated he might bring that to the jumps game but it didn’t quite pan out. Quick Jack on the other hand has an eye-catching hurdle win over Max Dynamite and that fellow bolted up yesterday.
I just feel that this may be an insufficient test of stamina for Quick Jack, who was runner up in the Chester Cup and I believe the Cesarewitch, where he was third last year, might be the better race for him than this trip at York.
Clondaw Warrior is in Trap 1 and he’s a skinny enough price in such a competitive race. His form line jumps out to the casual backer along with the names of Willie Mullins and Frankie Dettori, so it’s hardly surprising he is a magnet for money here, with Max Dynamite setting the scene yesterday for the legendary jumps trainer. I looked at him ante post, where he has steadily contracted in price, but the concern was always whether he would actually get in. He’s last through the door into the race but may well be the first home, just too short for me though.
Fun Mac caught my eye on his third start at two when winning a 10f Haydock maiden. That is a long way for a young horse to race over and I made a note that he might make up into a mile six to two mile horse the following year. He won his first race at three but then seemed to lose his way. He has started better this year and was only half a length behind the favourite last time. He is four pounds better in with Clondaw Warrior today and double the odds of him at 12/1. Hughie Morrison is not one of my favourite trainers from a reliability perspective but the weight change and the drop in trip might just give him prospects of reversing form with Clondaw Warrior and Fun Mac is my reserve for Battersea who misses the race.
Final position
Astronereus 16/1
Fields Of Athenry 14/1
Fun Mac 12/1Good luck everybody, enjoy your favourite race Moe!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Oh dear; couldn’t resist John Reel at 66/1 with it being first 5 places. There are so many form lines with these horses it’s hard to rule any of them out, but some of them, such as John Reel and Toe the Line have been running really well in defeat. Not expecting much this year as it’s such a head scratcher, but really looking forward to it, as usual.
I avoid the 3yos doubt they get in and go with a irish trained runner from trainer who won race before
MAX DYNAMITE 16/1
Ran a great race at Northumberland plate may drop back in trip no problem for him and think he go very well.
Unlucky Darren, would’ve been thrown in.
Value Is EverythingDonncha O’Brien looked OK to me on Outspoken in the Melrose. He had to get pretty serious with him and gave him plenty of shove in my opinion, running on well under top weight to finish a good third. If he gives Fields Of Athenry the same, I will be happy enough.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
…..I know this is aftertiming [sorry] but I did back Litigant in the end, having been so keen on him at a price and with the trainer doing so well at the moment.
Another outsider I’ve been looking at is Litigant. Obviously been off the track for a long time but they must think they’ve got him fit enough to run. I know all the stats are against him but he’s a nice price at 40/1.Changed my mind; 4th horse definately Toe the Line. So that’s Toe the Line, Nearly Caught, Astronereus and Fun Mac.
Hope you backed Litigant Moe. I couldn’t have had him in a million years.
I felt Fields Of Athenry was ridden a bit aggressively but if that’s his style then so be it. I thought he might be totally swamped but he managed to finish 5th.
I thought Quick Jack and Clondaw Warrior were very short and so it proved. Fun Mac didn’t start.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes, I did Steve but I felt I should stick to just declaring 4 horses . He was such an unknown quantity I knew I would kick myself if he won. When I read today at the bookies that he’d been entered for several races but been pulled out I figured they were waiting for the right ground and that, with injury problems he probably had the one big race in him. The trouble with these races is that, once I start studying them, once I’ve fancied a horse I find it difficult to not back it. I think he was entered in a CL1 in Ireland tomorrow as well so he was obviously ready to run. I only have 25 pence ew bets so I need to get a good price!
…..I know this is aftertiming [sorry] but I did back Litigant in the end, having been so keen on him at a price and with the trainer doing so well at the moment.
Nonsense, Moe. You called it before the race, and no apology is necessary :) Great shout!!
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
Fields Of Athenry might be a bit keen, so possibly not jockeys fault for making a quick move up to the front. However, would still have gone close to winning had DO’B not kicked for home too soon off a strong pace. Did by far the best of those ridden prominently… But that’s what you’re (I’m) chancing when backing an inexperienced rider.
FOA should have a good chance in the St Leger if recovering in time. Had hard race here.
Value Is EverythingThanks; I love this race so much but, like the National, because I start looking at it ages before the race I end up having far too many bets. I couldn’t ignore John Reel at the price, either….went to the bookies this morning to back Toe the Line and John Reel and, thankfully added Litigant. Now need to watch the race on 4+1.I spent £4.50 in bets. Lost Blue Surf, Pallasator and Elidor early on; will get my money back from Fun Mac and had Toe the Line, 28’s and Litigant 40/1 so have more than got my money back.
Another outsider I’ve been looking at is Litigant. Obviously been off the track for a long time but they must think they’ve got him fit enough to run. I know all the stats are against him but he’s a nice price at 40/1.Changed my mind; 4th horse definately Toe the Line. So that’s Toe the Line, Nearly Caught, Astronereus and Fun Mac.
Well done Moe!
The “scattergun” approach works.
Value Is EverythingThe “scattergun” approach works
It never does when I try it….ha ha.
Thanks Ginge; this is what I love about racing…quirky unreal results like this. It’s called the ‘why on earth is this horse running in this race, someone must know something that I don’t’approach [which also worked with Jacqueline Quest a few years ago].Jeeez would I have been feeling sick now if I hadn’t backed it.
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