- This topic has 41 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Irving for me. 142 greatly under-rates him. And this from a man who doesn’t like Paul Nicholls runners in general.
Well Nicky didn’t train Rooster and it’s Rolling Star, not Aces.
Other than that….
Irish Saint looks well in to me, even under the penalty. Surely a mid 150’s horse at present with the potential to improve.
2 years ago Alaivan ran three good races, winning two and going down by 2 1/2 lengths in the County Hurdle. He’s now a stone lighter.
One nap, one each way bet for me i think.
Oh well. More senior moments. Better than forgetting I put the oven on regulo 7 two or three hours ago, to warm it up. Or trying to put the kettle in the fridge.
It looks like whoever wins this is going to have to have hooves like flippers. I’m glad that
Smashing
would be at home with a snorkel too.
He has run well on v soft ground in France and won very easily on his second run for Mullins at Limerick on heavy ground (having won his first on good/y at Fairyhouse).
This could be a very good horse, the 14s I mentioned when I put him up has gone, but there is still some 12s going about, I don’t think that will be the case come Saturday.
I was half expecting to see Henderson’s 5lb claimer declared to ride Rolling Star. Ok, so he’s not as good as Harry Derham, but surely if no horse has carried 11st 12 since Persian War, then why not take a bit of weight off like Nicholls has done with Far West.
Obviously Geraghty is different gravy to any claimer, but just thought they might take that route, bearing in mind the stat about top weights and how heavy the going will be.One point not so far mentioned is the apparently very lenient handicap mark awarded to Smashing by the UK handicapper.
Because of the different aapproaches taken by the hurdle handicappers in the two countries, Irish hurdlers are usually rated higher here than in Ireland. For example, when the stable ran City Slicker in the Ladbroke in December, he ran off 138 here but was rated 133 in Ireland.
So it’s hard to understand how Smashing gets to run at Newbury off 143, when his official Irish rating is 148. His last run was on Boxing Day, so it’s not a case of the Irish rating having been raised since the weights were published.
In that last win, Smashing beat a 136 rated rival by 7 lengths at level weights, but if you watch a replay of that race (available on the ATR site), you’ll see that he wins with much more in hand than the distance indicates and the form looks pretty solid as the other runners were left well behind.
My estimate is that Smashing is running off a mark about 7lbs lower than he should be, based on his Irish rating. That alone won’t win him the race, as he has yet to prove he can handle a big field. But he does like the ground, jumps cleanly and doesn’t seem to lack speed, so every chance that my namesake will be collecting the trophy on Saturday.
One point not so far mentioned is the apparently very lenient handicap mark awarded to Smashing by the UK handicapper.
Because of the different aapproaches taken by the hurdle handicappers in the two countries, Irish hurdlers are usually rated higher here than in Ireland. For example, when the stable ran City Slicker in the Ladbroke in December, he ran off 138 here but was rated 133 in Ireland.
So it’s hard to understand how Smashing gets to run at Newbury off 143, when his official Irish rating is 148. His last run was on Boxing Day, so it’s not a case of the Irish rating having been raised since the weights were published.
In that last win, Smashing beat a 136 rated rival by 7 lengths at level weights, but if you watch a replay of that race (available on the ATR site), you’ll see that he wins with much more in hand than the distance indicates and the form looks pretty solid as the other runners were left well behind.
My estimate is that Smashing is running off a mark about 7lbs lower than he should be, based on his Irish rating. That alone won’t win him the race, as he has yet to prove he can handle a big field. But he does like the ground, jumps cleanly and doesn’t seem to lack speed, so every chance that my namesake will be collecting the trophy on Saturday.
You are absolutely spot on AP, I think he is well treated, will love the ground, and as I said in the first of my two posts, I hope this horse might be the new Sizing Europe (runs in the same colours).
As you said, the manner of his last win was very impressive and with only a couple of runs under his belt for Mullins, he is open to more improvement.
I am surprised that there is still 12/1 about, that looks a very decent wager to me.
Well Nicky didn’t train Rooster and it’s Rolling Star, not Aces.
Other than that….
Irish Saint looks well in to me, even under the penalty. Surely a mid 150’s horse at present with the potential to improve.
2 years ago Alaivan ran three good races, winning two and going down by 2 1/2 lengths in the County Hurdle. He’s now a stone lighter.
One nap, one each way bet for me i think.
Alaivan was 33’s in places the other day
Has he been tipped by someone ?
I’ve been waiting for
Prompter
to reappear since before the turn of the year, I backed him the previous two times he ran and thought he should have won both times, given a poor ride on both occasions with McCoy and Elsworth leaving their challenge until to late. I get the feeling he will pop up and win a big handicap so Ive had a bit each way on at 40s.
I like the look of
Far West
Del’Arca
Irish Saint
At a best price 12’1 I think Far West offers good value.
John
Does anyone know if Newbury is called off tomorrow, will the Betfair Hurdle be run another day?
Backed Irish Saint a while back but I’ve always though there was a decent race in Vasco Du Ronceray, so have backed him too at 46 on Betfair
I dont expect to pick a winner in this race this year, I maybe wrong but I don’t think there’s a star this year. At the prices I’m going to back Montbazon each-way, if he’s ready he could be bang there.
Conditions are going to be atrocious and with not many of these liking heavy ground, it might pay to go for something at the foot of the weights. Totalize has all the right credentials, good age, in decent form, proven on the ground and relatively unexposed. With a low weight he’d do for me at 16/1.
I like Dell’ Arca and Totalize, and I can see Far West running a big race if he’s back in form after his bad scope last time out.
Look for runners that are not mentioned by the pundits and not front page news, I had a sneaky three quid on the winner this morning same price as its SP and four on Chris Pea Green soley because of there good runs behind very good horses in there form this season. Splash of Ginge made the frame behind Irving and Deputy Dan last two runs. If this stinks of after timing please request a screen shot of my GG.com watched horses I wrote in January.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.