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I see Pricewise has put up Rolling Star for this and I concur. If ever a horse was going to win a big handicap at some stage this is the horse.
I’d agree Corm, only a matter of time for him, and he looks like the main horse from the yard. Stuffed in The Ladbroke, but that race was a war of attrition, and I’d forgive any horses showing there. He also holds a Champion Hurdle entry, and is clearly still highly regarded by the yard. He certainly impressed last year at Cheltenham, and after a couple of below par performances, he at least got back in the winning fold at Haydock before tackling The Ladbroke.
I was initially more gutted about Pricewise putting up
Cheltenian
, as I’d been chewing him over, as he looked
really
well treated, but the flipside is, he may struggle to get in now. The trainer may have more than able deputies in fellow Novices
Garde La Victoire
, and
The Skyfarmer
. Both look capable of landing a blow, and The Skyfarmers defeat of Lyvius took a boost when that horse caught the eye when winning at Kempton on Saturday.
Love this race, outside of The Cheltenham Festival, probably the biggest Hurdle race of the season. Always ultra competitive, and a big betting heat. It’s got the usual huge entry, but difficult to take strong position on it, with so many holding multiple entries, with a good few running tomorrow. A few of them, particularly the Irish contingent, may head for The Boylesports Hurdle at Leapordstown a week on Saturday, and one of the few races where I’d only consider the Irish horses once they make the ferry. There’s a few in there that catch the eye, though I hope none of them come
it’ll certainly make things a tad easier. Upazo
looks a likely type for a handicap in the near future, and keeping tabs on him, but, as I said, I’ll hold fire on the lot of em.
3 out of the last 4 winners have been Novices, and all 3 have went on to run in that seasons Supreme Novices Hurdle at The Festival, with the JP pair, Get Me Out Of Here, and My Tent Or Yours going very close to landing the double.
Market leader,
Irving
, looks a likely candidate to attempt this double. Clear market leader at 7’s for this, he’s also at the head of the market for The Supreme in March. He looks very good, and has won all 4 races under rules this season, in the manner of a horse going places. Bypassed The Tolworth for this, and you can be sure trainer Paul Nicholls, sees this as ideal for him, and wouldn’t be pitching him in lightly. I’m not really one for backing favourites, particularly at an early stage like this, but the 7’s does look decent value to me, considering his potential.
Nicholls, who landed this in 2012 with Zarkandar, like most of the top guns, has a strong team entered with
Irish Saint
,
Ptit Zig
,
Sametegal
, and
Far West
. Far West, and Irish Saint both have questions to answer, with both being slightly disappointing this season. Far West was well held by Rolling Star at Haydock last time, and Irish Saint looked on the retreat when he came down in The Gerry Feilden here in November. Far West has though, been clipped a few points in places in the last 24 hours. Ptit Zig, holds a Champion Hurdle entry, heads to Haydock tomorrow for their Champion Hurdle Trial. Off 159, you’d have to say it’d be a very big ask for him to do the double and land this, but he looks a very promising horse, and one worth keeping any eye on, I certainly wouldn’t expect Handicaps to be on the agenda for much longer. Sametegal was beaten out of sight in The Christmas Hurdle by the market leaders for The Champion Hurdle, and despite the margin, I think he can be excused that, and should remain very competitive in this company. Ran a fine race in defeat in The Greatwood.
It’s a race where you cant ignore any entries from the Nicky Henderson yard, he’s landed it no fewer than 5 times, including last year with My Tent Or Yours. As well as Rolling Star, owner, Michael Buckley, also has
River Maigue
entered from the yard, and his runners are usually worth keeping an eye on. Interesting that he was stepped up to 2 mile 5 in The Lanzarote, it remains to be seen whether they’ll stick to that trip after him pulling up there. He’s on my radar for The Coral Cup, rather than this, but if he were to take up his engagement here, then no surprise were he to go well. A horse I’ve always liked is
Gibb River
. Pleased to see him swerving The Lanzarote, and see this as more suitable. His first 2 runs back have been disappointing, but many of the yards runners seemed to need their first run back, and he was also coming off the back of along layoff. He’s no 40-1 shot, if on song.
Vasco Du Ronceray
, is another who’s had a couple of poor runs to forgive, but he seems on a fair enough mark, and he’s certainly not discounted.
Petit Robin
was a fine fith in this last year, and although an 11yo and burdened with 11-6, he’s at least been dropped a good few pounds since then. Still, looks to have a hard enough task.
Snake Eyes
may struggle to get in.
John Ferguson has outdone Henderson though, and entered just the nine. The most high profile of these is
Cotton Mill
. I thought the sky was the limit for him last season, but he never really delivered. Runner up last year in this, before taking a tumble in The County Hurdle. He’s (very) slowly creeping down a couple of pounds, and if the ground isn’t too soft, he may not be far away. He’s another who holds a Champion Hurdle entry.
Pine Creek
was fine winner at Ascot earlier in the season, and was far from disgraced in The Greatwood, and The Ladbroke. Like Cotton Mill, I get the impression he wouldn’t want it too soft.
Sea Lord
is a cracking horse, who’s surely got a decent future ahead of him. Only denied a seven timer by The Liquidator last time, that form took a bit of a dent when that horse got beaten at the weekend, however, from what I’ve seen of him, it seems safe to say he remains on an upward curve. Maybe a shade high in the weights for this to actually land it, but couldn’t possibly rule out a big run and a place.
Ladbroke winner
Willows Saviour
has been hammered for his win there, but it
was
a very gutsy performance. Shown he can battle in a big field that day, and he’s at least got that in his favour. Rated 143, I think he’s better than that, it may just be, we’ve still to see more improvement from him.
Impossible to gauge the Alan King runners at present, with the stable having been forced to shut up shop for a while, however, very difficult to crab
Vendor
, who was very impressive here on Hennessy Day, and
Montbazon
, who’s obviously had injury problems, he was top notch as a Novice, finishing 4th in the 2012 Supreme Novices. Both interesting contenders, but I’d have to leave them for the timebeing with the yards current predicament.
Of the Pipe contingent, I really like
Swing Bowler
. Sensibly swerved The Ladbroke, and would be her first run of the season. Another who might just struggle to get in, she may be too well handicapped. Third in this last year, I’m more than willing to forgive her, her run in The Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham. At 20’s she looks really solid value at 20’s for a place….at the very least, should she make it.
Un Temps Pour Tout
is an unknown to me, but from this yard, who knows? We should know more after this weekend, and the bookies are taking no chances, as low as 14’s in places. More well known is
Dell Arca
who was very impressive when landing The Greatwood. Another who’s touch and go for getting in, but if he does, looks feasibly weighted, and completes a tight looking trio for David Pipe.
Melodic Rendezvouz
remains a very popular horse, and although he disappointed in The Fighting Fifth, it should be noticed that a muscle injury came to light after the race. If he went close here of his current mark, then safe to say he’ll take up his Champion Hurdle entry. Very nice horse, but he remains risky until his wellbeing can be confirmed. Another who’ll answer a few questions tomorrow!
Gary Moore won this in 2007 and 2008, and his main hope of his 3 entries appears to be
Chris Pea Green
. Doesn’t seem capable of running a bad race, and he’s looked very solid this season. There’s the suspicion he’ll always find one or two too good, but he remains a very likeable horse, who looks nailed on to be there at the business end.
Also impressing this season has been
Deep Trouble
. It’s 1’s and 2’s all the way when you look at his form, and obviously as a result, he continues to rise in the weights, up another 7lbs after going down fighting on Saturday. That may be enough to stop him, and he’s not my immediate idea of the winner, but he’s still got a nice enough profile, and would take a brave man to strongly oppose him in current form.
Ifandbutwhynot
landed The Gerry Feilden here in November, and followed that up with a second in a competitive handicap hurdle at Musselburgh. Although clearly thriving, he doesn’t look the most obvious winner, but if things fall right for him, and he gets the run of the race, like he did in The Gerry Feilden, then they’ll be all out to catch him. This is a totally different affair though, and first of all, he’s got hot some hot opposition to contend with tomorrow!
I’ve thrown a few quid each way at
Get Me Out Of Here
, who looked to be on a sharp decline. However, he was ridden a lot more prominently last time in The Greatwood, and I get the feeling they think he’s got one more big payday in him. He was better than the bare result suggested that day, having been badly hampered. The winner in 2010, and a very unlucky second in 2012
I’m taking one more chance on him. 33’s 
Another previous winner, Recession Proof, gets an entry, and difficult to know how much ability he retains after his setback. Certainly fit from a campaign on the flat, and not asked a question when coming down in The Ladbroke, be great to see him come back to prominence. Faces a fight to get in though.I’m keeping a close eye on
Citizenship
, who I’m hoping continues improving for his switch to Venetia Williams yard. A winner last time out, if he sneaks in, I’ll stick my neck out and say he’ll run very well at a decent price. If not here, then I’ll catch him, hopefully, in something like The County Hurdle. His entry over 2 miles 3 tomorrow, along with having had an entry for The Lanzarote may suggest though that his future belongs over further from now on.
It’s such a good entry, that potentially well treated horse like
Jumps Road
,
Kashmir Peak
,
Prompter
, and
Totalize
are looking unlikely to make it there. They’ll have other days I’m sure, though Jumps Road has the opportunity to pick up a handy penalty tomorrow!
A couple of rank outsiders to note.
Act of Kalanisi
has been in fine form over timber this season, and his win at Leicester in December, safely secured him a place in the field, and looks huge at 40’s.
Should he run well tomorrow, the 40’s won’t last.At even bigger odds of 50’s is
First Avenue
. On the face of things, he looks well up against it, but if it were to come up Heavy then I’d be taking a chance at those odds.
After all that, I’m still not sure who my main fancy would be. Obviously got a wee bet on Get Me Out Of Here, but may just be heart ruling the head there, and I think probably a place at best. Happy to be proved wrong though, should he land it. Ptiz Zig looks a potential top class animal, but hopefully they’ll give this a miss of the back of his Haydock run, and save him for Cheltenham.
For win purposes, possibly Swing Bowler, or Willows Saviour, and Chris Pea Green for place prospects, but I’ll leave any more bets for now. Probably best to wain until better idea of the field, and a clearer picture of any Irish challengers.
GL
Would Cotton Mill and Act of Kalanisi be the onlt two with a Champion Hurdle entry? I went to a talk many years ago given by someone that backed horses that had been given optimistic entries in races. Probably won lots of money with Clive Brittain horses over the years.
Take the price on Un Pour Temps Tout before he wins at Haydock tomorrow, he will go to Newbury en route to Cheltenham, weather permitting.
This is getting to be a very strong trends race, this season I think Mr Nicholls may have the edge.
I have already backed Irish Saint EW at 20s but like the look of Irving, despite being favourite I still think he is a fair price and for the daring amongst you, maybe take the ‘special’ double of Betfair Hurdle and Supreme
Some bookies are so very tight!! Phoned round this morning for the special double price for Irving to win Betfair and also Supreme Novice. Bearing in mind he is 7s and 10s some of the offers were a disgrace, lowest was 25s which is laughable, average was 33s but 40s freely available however I settled for 50s which is what I initially wanted despite thinking 66s was fairer
Although Pricewise had tipped him up,I had already backed Rolling Star at 16/1 for the Betfair. Funnily enough I backed Irish Saint Friday night at 12/1 before Pricewise put him up Saturday for the Ascot handicap, and because of the form that ties these two horses in from their novice form from last year, I’m sitting on a very handsome double indeed. These were, after all, the best of the younger brigade last year, this side of the water, until the Triumph at least…anyway, here’s to hoping form holds up….Rolling Star should beat Irish Saint, but this Irving could be anything…
Irish Saint looked, last season, to have the makings of a decent horse. It seems the yard is keen to let him take his chance with a 5lb penalty from Saturday’s impressive victory.
Almost half a mile less to travel in the Betfair, but if he is finally making up into the horse he promised to be, the current 10s is excellent value imo.
Quick Jack appears to be improving at a rate of knots. He was beaten favourite last time in a 60 grand Leopardstown Handicap but I thought he travelled like the probable winner that day, before not quickening enough to catch the first two home. Maybe he was over-confidently ridden that day. He is only a youngster but he has been running in big fields and I think that’s a plus. Tony Martin needs no introduction and at 14/1 I’d have 10pts on.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Quick Jack appears to be improving at a rate of knots. He was beaten favourite last time in a 60 grand Leopardstown Handicap but I thought he travelled like the probable winner that day, before not quickening enough to catch the first two home. Maybe he was over-confidently ridden that day. He is only a youngster but he has been running in big fields and I think that’s a plus. Tony Martin needs no introduction and at 14/1 I’d have 10pts on.
Quick Jack ruled out today, along with Flaxen Flare. #Woe
Quick Jack appears to be improving at a rate of knots. He was beaten favourite last time in a 60 grand Leopardstown Handicap but I thought he travelled like the probable winner that day, before not quickening enough to catch the first two home. Maybe he was over-confidently ridden that day. He is only a youngster but he has been running in big fields and I think that’s a plus. Tony Martin needs no introduction and at 14/1 I’d have 10pts on.
Quick Jack ruled out today, along with Flaxen Flare. #Woe
Irving is now said to be a "far from certain" runner in this. Luckily I haven’t had a bet on the race yet but I’ll keep an eye out for Quick Jack for another day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
When I werrrre a lad, I saw a horse on telly what won the Schweppes as it were then called, and then went on to win t’Champion Hurdle. It were a grey called, Rooster Booster, and I think carried 12 stone, and it were trained by Nick Henderson – all right, back to my normal colourless diction – who now trains Rolling Aces and says he envisages the same path for him, as he has made great progress over the winter, more progress over the winter than any of his other horses. And as we all know, he has a fair number of them.
I see from the Cormack’s and V2C’s opening posts that RA and my other main fancy, Cheltenian, were tipped by Pricewise too. I hope I haven’t put the mockers on him, but if he gets in, what a racing weight for a horse that won the Cheltenham bumper! They can’t always jump a hurdle at speed, but I’ve read nothing to say that Cheltenian can’t.
It’s been a reasonably kind race to me in the past, but your only as good as your last banker! And I couldn’t catch a cold today. Well actually I couldn’t get rid of it, so I suppose I covered all bases. While reduced again to penury.
I very much like the look of
Smashing
. He has run two very eye catching runs at Fairyhouse and Limerick at the tail end of last year.
Willie Mullins rarely sends something over for a handicap like this unless he believes he has a serious chance. A french import, running in the colours of the Ann and Alan Potts Partnership, I hope they have bought him as the new Sizing Europe, who they did extremely well with, to name but one of their successful purchases.
14/1 is a very reasonable price for a horse that, excuse the well worn phrase, could be anything…..I hope he is.
Well Nicky didn’t train Rooster and it’s Rolling Star, not Aces.
Other than that….
Irish Saint looks well in to me, even under the penalty. Surely a mid 150’s horse at present with the potential to improve.
2 years ago Alaivan ran three good races, winning two and going down by 2 1/2 lengths in the County Hurdle. He’s now a stone lighter.
One nap, one each way bet for me i think.
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