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Posts
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I’m not intending to be dogmatic here Ginge, just the facts as they are. The data may be of some small value or protection to punters without access to inside information now that insiders seem to be getting minor wrist slaps for laying their own horses on Betfair. I’ve also included the happier reading towards the bottom of the list.
One thing that stands out, if your regularly backing Graham Lee because he’s drifted to the
value place
on your form tissue, you need your head examined.
By the way on steamers he’s
G Lee…18…126…14.29%…-2.36…-1.87%
A lot healthier when the money comes, which was the thrust of the
Gamble Landed
thread in the first place.
Are you sure you can get this from the betfair data files – not the fracsoft ones? Surely you can only look at last matched outside 10 mins to last matched pre off?
Ok, not
all
of it comes from the Betfair site.
Ok fair enough, best of luck to you anyway. My money says if you do the same analysis for the same period in 2011 the results will have either flipped around or the whole thing will start converging towards 0. Time will tell but I’d be fairly confident in my assertion.
In the interest of fairness, I think you should caveat your posts before anyone goes off downloading the dirty and inconsistent betfair data files. They are like having half the pieces of a jigsaw without the picture!
In the interest of fairness, I think you should caveat your posts before anyone goes off downloading the dirty and inconsistent betfair data files. They are like having half the pieces of a jigsaw without the picture!
Ok fair enough. All I will say is that I punt from 3000 miles away and the data is all publicly available for those who want to put the time, effort and expense into obtaining it.
As for things reaching the big zero, the 2009 figures are much the same in many cases.
Now that
listman
has provided us with
the list
we can all go out shopping
down the market.But life aint like that
as gingerbread leaning
out of the breadshop three
above me points out.Iron beats bread
and the better shot just goes to
‘Make my day punk’ Eastwood…" If you want a guarantee
buy a toaster "As for things reaching the big zero, the 2009 figures are much the same in many cases.
The past is history, this thread should make for very interesting reading in 2011/12. People think they are big market swings at the moment!
The past is history, this thread should make for very interesting reading in 2011/12
You’ll find me here.
As for things reaching the big zero, the 2009 figures are much the same in many cases.
The past is history, this thread should make for very interesting reading in 2011/12. People think they are big market swings at the moment!
The last time Cav put one of these up, the two names that stuck out were Braveheart and the Family Evans. This is a completely different period and they have reached the podium again.
Cav –
Could you query those less than 5 at 10 mins who were 10 or greater at SP?
Yep, but only one at less than 5. Less than 6, there were 23 of them in the period.
1…23…4.35%…-10…-43.48%
The winner was Minella For Food, Evan Williams last March at Exeter, 5.7 out to 13.
Biggest drifter was Marsh Court also last March, 5.6 out to 22.11 who then refused to race. Playing up before the start probably caused that drift?
Asoloutley no intention of getting into a protracted debate about my data, Kickback, suffice to say I’m very happy with it.
Marsh Court is highly unusual in that he refused to race.
At 16:42:37 the back price on the exchange was 18.5
At 16:42:38 ( 1 second later) the back price was out to 50.0 as the layers piled in.
Then Betfair suspended the market as the race went in play.The differential on the exchange LPM and BFSP on this occasion was of course caused by the imbalance on the back side of the BFSP market, all looking to get matched at 50. When their isnt enough liquidity on the lay side of the BFSP market the SP backers are matched with unmatched lay bets from the main exchange, thus bringing the BFSP down on this occasion. Again that is highly unusual and a poor rod to beat me with.
My figures show me that BFSP is to within 1% of the exchange LPM 98% of the time.
And
again
interpret my figures as you wish.
Thats the end of the tech debate.
Cavelino, I deleted my post because I figured it was going down the road of me nosing into your business which wasn’t my attention and fair play to you for putting up these figures which take a lot of time and cost to produce (sadly, I know).
Just for the record I have found that the last price matched or betfair sp (agree with your figures on the differential btw) to
not
be a fair indicator of the market at the off (the real off that is – not the betfair suspend) often enough to use it in any analysis.
Bets of luck with your punting anyway.
Never mind jockeys and trainers, what about individual horses? Transfixed just had its 50th run in its fifteen month career. How has he done when drifting and shortening.
Usually seems to know what price it is.
I’m not intending to be dogmatic here Ginge, just the facts as they are. The data may be of some small value or protection to punters without access to inside information now that insiders seem to be getting minor wrist slaps for laying their own horses on Betfair. I’ve also included the happier reading towards the bottom of the list.
One thing that stands out, if your regularly backing Graham Lee because he’s drifted to the
value place
on your form tissue, you need your head examined.
By the way on steamers he’s
G Lee…18…126…14.29%…-2.36…-1.87%
A lot healthier when the money comes, which was the thrust of the
Gamble Landed
thread in the first place.
Fair enough.
Thanks Cav,
Lee has never been a favourite of mine, seems to leave it too late too often…..
Value Is Everything
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