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Balmoral 2021

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  • #1561240
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13806

    Entries out, but only Paddy Power and Betfair have it priced up so far, and not on Oddschecker yet.

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2021-10-16/792775

    Only one horse on my mind before entries came out, and that was Escobar. Slightly frustrating this season, but a previous winner of this, and must be a strong EW chance on the day. Slightly surprised at the opening 20’s. That looks generous.

    Saltonstall is another who’s been running well without running this year, and 33’s is decent on his best form. Just wonder whether or not he’ll travel. Another Irish entry who really catches my eye is Georgeville. Had him in mind for a few races, but didn’t expect to see him here. Interesting at 20’s.

    Encouraging comeback from King Leonidas the other day, and he’s currently 14’s.

    Sir Busker loves it here, and if he remains on this mark after Fridays Joel Stakes, then I’d be very interested in him at around 20’s.

    No early bet though, and plenty of time to give them a proper look, and also to change my mind.

    #1561257
    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 382

    I’ve already had my fingers burned by Al Rufaa in The Cambridgeshire, but I think that I’ll go with him again here. He’s 20-1 just now.

    #1563090
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13806

    Escobar and Sir Busker still in there, but still no bet.

    I was almost hoping that Saltonstall wasn’t in at the five day stage, as I know there’s no way I won’t bet him. Very tempting at 33’s.

    The other one I’m starting to come round to is Afaak. Former Hunt Cup Winner, who’s had a very low key 2021, and as a result, comes here four pounds lower than that big win. No ground concerns, and looks decent at 20’s.

    If I have an Antepost it’s likely to be Afaak, and he’s up there with Escobar now.

    Shortlist
    Afaak
    Escobar
    Saltonstall
    Sir Busker

    #1563115
    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 249

    I like two so far in this, both had very light campaigns, one has been well found in the market, the other hasn’t yet but could be depending on jockey bookings.

    King Leonidas is the obvious one but I couldn’t back him in a race like this at his price now let alone what he’ll be on the day assuming he shortens not least because Gosden has another likely type for Juddmonte. Very eye-catching comeback and much like Sunray Major they are both still entires as 4 year olds suggesting there is more than a bit of hope both will make up into group horses down the line.

    Montatham was Sir Busker’s old sparring partner last year in the big handicaps and both return here and would have chances but I just prefer the very light campaign Montatham has had, strikes me as Haggas waiting for a handicap to run him in over a mile on decent ground which he might surprisingly get for the time of year. I wouldn’t be playing antepost as Haggas has numerous entries as do Shadwell so he could give it a swerve. I do like Afaak for similar reasons (light campaign) but he’s another one for Shadwell so we’ll see what happens.

    #1563229
    Kris
    Participant
    • Total Posts 669

    I’ve bet Sir Busker here at 22-1 ew, and if he makes the line up, I’ll also bet Royal Marine

    #1563289
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13806

    Three of the four from my shortlist make it.

    Main hope now he travels is Saltonstall, and I took the opening 33’s. I’d be surprised if he’s not half that on the day. Slightly surprised that he comes here, but very happy to have him onside.

    Really don’t want three in this, so I’ve covered Sir Busker close to a saver, win only. Escobar will be to seven places.

    Escobar EW 7 Places
    Saltonstall 33’s EW 7 Places
    Sir Busker 25’s

    #1563313
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3590

    Kenzai warrior 25/1 e/w
    Raise you 20/1 e/w
    Both 6 places

    My two plays

    #1563352
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5676

    My top rates are as follows:

    121 Oh This Is Us
    121 Magical Morning
    119 Sir Busker
    119 Marie’s Diamond
    118 Montatham
    118 Escobar

    Those with recent handicap wins don’t show up well on the figures. Sunray Major could be useful but is way too short for me in a big field.

    Only 10lbs between top and bottom in the handicap so can’t see weight being a huge factor overall.

    Magical Morning 25/1 – Has mixed moderate runs with good runs this season but generally progressive and no surprise if he goes close.
    Sir Busker 14/1 – Highly tried and has run some decent races in recent times. This looks his sort of race to me.
    Marie’s Diamond 33/1 – Gradually dropped in the weights and put in an excellent effort at Newmarket.

    #1563356
    Oscar
    Participant
    • Total Posts 52

    I’m not quibbling with your figures, Rob, but I don’t see why they haven’t caused you to lump on Oh This Is Us, apparently drawn well in 6, at 66-1?

    #1563382
    vikingflagship
    Participant
    • Total Posts 898

    I like nugget, might have e/w oh this is us though

    VF x

    #1563391
    Triptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 12722

    Marie’s Diamond did me a favour in the Cambridgeshire officially coming in 7th but he was 3rd in his group on the far side. :good: I like a good front runner and he’ll be thereabouts.

    Kenzai Warrior is my other EW bet, he usually wins back end of the season and will go on the ground.

    So two against the field…

    Marie’s Diamond – EW
    Kenzai Warrior
    – EW

    Best of luck
    Jac :bye:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1563441
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3422

    Low numbers may hold sway, so Nugget ew 6 places for me.

    #1563443
    TheTinMan87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 249

    One of the worst prices I think I’ve ever seen for Sunray Major in a big handicap like this. Anybody taking that needs their head testing :wacko:

    #1563448
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5676

    Oscar

    Didn’t put it in my summary, though htought I had(!), but for me Oh This Is Us isn’t a big field horse whereas the other top rated horses all are. That said, good luck as the odds seem remarkable value for one who has won in a higher class relatively recently.

    Rob

    #1563478
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 595

    It’s two outsiders for me. I’ve went with Oh This Is Is 66-1 + Montatham 40-1 both ew 7pls

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