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Bearing in mind the ongoing discussions this weekend regarding flat racing in this country, I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry when this thing went in at 4/1 after being punted all day from 25’s.
Once trained by J Fanshawe, and out the back on polytrack last time out, I thought the opening 25/1 was a little conservative, entirely typical of bookmaker thriftiness.
Add a zero after the five and I might have had a quid each way because the name is roughly one half of a hideous Kate Bush ditty which accompanied my first girlfriend telling me she was about to go out with her next door neighbour.
I spent the afternoon dutifully looking through the form and was unable to find anything to justify the colossal support.
The obvious thing to do would to just stick a token amount on just in case; the clues were there! But the textbooks tell you that’s the fast track to the poorhouse.
So I stood and watched one of the biggest gambles of the season bolt up with not a shekel on her hairy nose. In the middle of a run of bad luck which would have driven the most unyeildingly optimistic of born-again christians to the solace of the meths bottle.
Anyone else either back it, (even for a tenner or so), or find anything to justify backing it? Or was it just me that left this alone and is now wallowing in the pit of regret.
As Mark Coton once said, "If a horse came to the door and say’s "I’m a winner", many of us would shut the door and say" Go away, I’m looking for a winner!"
Cheers
Max
Being wise after the event as it’s only your post that’s prompted a glance at the race but the horse would appear lightly raced for a 5yo, has a dislike for polytrack and is/was unexposed on GF or faster turf, on which she has won and been second, returning RPR’s comfortably good enough to win today franked to some extent by a half decent TS on her debut.
I haven’t had a look at the rest of the field’s form so have no idea if 25/1 this morning was too long but the profile of the horse suggests it may have been.
Wigham isn’t a bad trainer
(Edited by Drone at 5:33 pm on July 24, 2006)
I spent all of the day devoted to the Yarmouth placepot. I’df picked two for that leg but then saw that Baboosh was 4/1 from 25/1 (14 with Hills). If you look at its form at the start of its career i kind of thought it may have a squeak so put it in the placepot. (And a good move too as the one i repaced was nowhere). However to entertain backing it at 4/1 would have been ludicrous from my point of view.
How many bets are laid at 25/1? I’d guess not many so you would have to know from word of mouth that this one is back to his start of career form. Spot on to the Racing Post as well, because in fairness they said best watched unless there is support.
From now on I will be watching any signs of market moves on horses from the stable.
Drone,
I am sure the ‘she doesn’t like Polytrack’ excuse will be the one that the Stewards will have been fed (and swallowed) when Wigham was asked to explain away the massive improvement in her form.
FSL
I was idly perusing the Sporting Life and read Market Moves Central: this was the piece which sounded the alert.
1200: Baboosh has been the subject of a major gamble in Yarmouth’s 1640BST with Blue Square today.
The Michael Wigham trained five year old opened at 25/1 this morning and now stands at 4/1!
Blue Square’s Racing PR Kate Miller reported: "Our opening offer of 25/1 about Baboosh was quickly snapped up and we cut the price to 16/1.
"Within minutes a further cut to 10/1 was made and that’s when the floodgates opened.
"We saw a welter of internet and phone bets, and in 90 seconds built up a five figure liability.
"After a further price cut to 7/1 failed to stop the tide, we made the last move into 4/1 and even at that price have laid a string of three figure wagers.
"This is a monumental gamble at any time and has definitely livened trade on what was expected to be a quiet Monday morning."
Now, I understand that Blue Square are not noted for their appetite for laying large bets, but the Wigham stable, (safe to say a punting yard who rely on punts like this to exist), would have known that too.
Smithy; check the last four runs. Very quiet indeed. But the polytrack excuse is the likely one in for the referral to the JC.
The point I’m making is; instead of the regrets and the excuses, as punters, shouldn’t we have just piled in like lemmings? And been better off as a result?<br>
Simply spent a couple of minutes trying to find a rational explanation for the improvement in form, it’s so much more rewarding than tossing it away as ‘an inside job’ though I’m quite prepared to believe that was the case.
I don’t watch, follow or bet 0-65 handicaps nor AW and am therefore in no position to discuss the merits or otherwise of the horse’s runs prior to today.
TDK, I’ll leave you to make what you will of my somewhat ambiguous statement "Wigham isn’t a bad trainer". Coral laid it presumably?
Good old quarrels.
Never knowingly undersold in the concessions, special offers and choice departments.:biggrin:
From what I hear £3.65 were hit pretty badly – although I certainly don’t believe the figure I was told!!!
From what I hear, £3.65 lost a lot more than Blue Square are claiming. Yeah, right…..
They pulled a similar stunt with Celtique a few weeks back. There’s one they’ve got tomorrow that they are lining up, (doubt the brakes will be off tomorrow though). The horse is Bucharest and has dropped about 2 stone since leaving Charlton. The horse is ex-Abdullah that you may remember it for doing a lap of the track at Nottingham prior to winning on it’s debut. It’s bred to want 7f/1m but Wigham has been running it over sprints.
The odds compilers got it wrong with this horse today.<br> <br>Ignore the horses AW runs and its last turf run on soft ground. The previous run was on good to firm at Nottingham where it won and achieved a form rating good enough to win today. It was clear top rated with Raceform and one other online ratings service.
Lots of burnt fingers fuelling heated response!<br>
That bloke Matt Wassisname on ATR said "what’s the point of backing a horse at 5/1 when you could have backed it 3 hours ago at 20/1"….Where’s that at? it won that’s the main thing, and good luck to those that did bet on it.
Quote: from Smithy on 5:54 pm on July 24, 2006[br]Drone,
I am sure the ‘she doesn’t like Polytrack’ excuse will be the one that the Stewards will have been fed (and swallowed) when Wigham was asked to explain away the massive improvement in her form.
<br>
<br>I’m sure horses like York Cliff, Sir Gerard, Asset, Tubleweed Glory, Sands of Barra etc feel insulted by Baboosh’s AW exploits.<br>In fact i’m sure Marju will be very insulted and so will the Dam Slipper who’s other only AW runner (from 3 progeny) Cordier actually handled it rather well and won 2 races and placed once from only5 starts, but could that be down to being sired by Desert Style, mmmmmm ;)
Maybe the kickback was very severe when Baboosh was running
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(Edited by empty wallet at 7:41 am on July 25, 2006)
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