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my first posting on here (be gentle with me). perhaps by utilising past trends we can pinpoint future winners. in the last 10 years of the ayr gold cup there are some trends that can at least whittle the field size down to managable proportions.
by removing any horse that hasnt won over the distance / has had less than 5 runs / isnt rated between 90-99 / isnt a 4 or 5 year old / and wasnt placed last time out, we have covered the trends of the last 10 winners. so what are we left with……………PEARLY WAY and BEAVER PATROL. of the two i would lean towards pearly way, going will be soft and beaver patrol has lost on all 6 occasions it has encountered soft, pearly way on the other hand has never encountered it and i will take a chance it isnt too badly inconvenienced by it,chipmunkit did steve (finished third) that was over 5.5 furlongs and it was running on well so perhaps the extra .5 furlong can at least get it placed,chipmunk
By the way welcome to the forum. 14-1 Pearly Way with Paddypower at the moment might be on that today e/w.
it would be a largeish bet for me but the lack of a win on soft is a concern but as a finisher with a virtually garuanteed fast pace could be coming late and fast,chipmunk (thanks for the welcome by the way)
The going will be the key. I believe it is raining heavily there at the moment. It could be very soft by tomorrow, although Saturday is expected to be drier.
I think both Indian Trail and Pearly Way would prefer faster ground.
Fullandby surprised a few people by landing the Portland on firm ground last week. He was thought to want some cut in the ground, so this looked a notable performance(the best of his career).
Granted a clear run and a decent pace over on the far side, I think this strapping gelding should run a good race.
The pace over on the stands rail will be hot as Borderlescott blazes the trail. He won’t mind the conditions but looks vulnerable to something pouncing in the last 100yds. Partners In Jazz will enjoy the conditions and could get a good tow. He will be a big price and could spring a surprise.
Always thought this race is a minefield. Two factors I will be considering of most importance today is to decipher any draw bias in the Silver Cup and to establish what the ground will be like. As has been mentioned, I’m a big fan of Indian Trail, but not sure he’ll appreciate softish ground.
Welcome to the forum Chipmunk.
Totally agree with Anzum here, the race really is a minefield. Not only is the draw a big question mark, but with the weather being very overcast, then I am sure the ground may well be softer than described come race time.
Definitely a race I’d prefer to watch than get involved heavily in.
Mike
I’m not sure it’s the wisest thing to take what happens in today’s Silver Cup as gospel with regards a draw bias. There are surprisingly few front runners for such a large field today and if they split, which is likely, then the pace of each individual group is much more likely to be the most important factor. Only pace angles I can see are Mr Wold (12) Northern Empire (9), High Curragh (11) and Northern Dare (16). Speculating which side they’ll go is just that so it’s not a race I’d want to get involved in too heavily but if I were Hanagan from stall 15 on the jolly, I’d be keeping an eye as to where they go.
I agree completely- in fact I’m waiting until after the Silver Cup to back Knot in Wood not because I think I’ll find out about a bias, but because I can see the market reacting erroneously to today’s race. For me Indian Trail is a lay on the prevailing ground, which is also against Pearly Way.
With so many things to ponder over, draw, ground and luck in running, the stakes will be kept to a minimum, but having said that I fancy Dhaular Dhar to run well at a tasty price has one really good run in a big handicap (slightly unlucky) that would give him a big shout here. Drawn high which might turn out to be the place to be.
Providing your horse has two stone in hand, it doesn’t seem to matter which side he’s drawn! In pattern company next year after winning the Wokingham?
Won that well – think the first and third could both be decent Group horses judged on that. Both improving 3yos who’ll be better with another winter behind them
Had a small bet on Orientor as the ground is in his favour and he has been running respectably off higher marks.
Admittedly he may be badly drawn in the middle and hasn’t won the races he should have done for a horse of his ability but he’s the one my pin has landed on.Of course having backed Fonthill Road two years ago (but not last year) he’ll probably go and win it again.
Hello,
I generally go along with DJ regarding the true effect of the draw an where the pace is, however having watched the Spring Cup a few times, it is apparent the horses on the far side were well beaten by the furlong mark.
I have low drawn horses’ for the Gold Cup, [Zomerlust & Knot in Wood], at present I won’t desert them just yet, but my ante will be considerably smaller.
My high drawn possible is Majestic Times.
Secondly, if the jockeys PERCEIVE that the advantage is on the rails, they may all come across, cause havoc, and pass the advantage to the low drawn horses, with the winner coming down the centre.
Also, after recent events, I will be phoning the course tonight and enquire if they are considering watering!!
But, as one person stated earlier, the perceived high draw bias may well enhance the the prices of the better form horses on the other side, i.e. Knot in Wood.
regards,
doyley
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