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Given that Eastern Anthem looked distinctly ordinary at Goodwood this afternoon (he’d have to be to be done by Halicarnassus over 12 furlongs) I say plunge in on Authorized :biggrin:
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Quote: from clivex on 5:20 pm on May 24, 2007[br]Isnt there a school of thought (backed up by some stats) that short price winners are generally less profitable and are also ‘over bet’ compared to your more run of mill 3-1 shot?<br>
Clivex
Lies, damn lies, and statistics?<br>Whoever peddled that idea must have had his ‘value’ head on, rather than the one with a brain in.:)
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Quote: from clivex on 12:18 pm on May 25, 2007[br]Probably reet …probably
to be honest i cant be arsed to find out :)
I’ll save you the trouble then, (and the misconception).<br>here :)
I’m a backer. However, if the Derby were switched to Windsor, Dettori missed the ride due to traffic congestion and was replaced by Richard Hughes, he’d get beaten (by a short head).
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Quote: from clivex on 2:35 pm on May 25, 2007[br]So you are an anorak after all Reet? :o
Not really,C. <br>I just googled "fate of the favourites – horse racing", and that’s what it came up with.:) <br>Interesting site, though. <br>I analysed the more recent races and there is definitely a trend towards backing favourites becoming more profitable, (or losing less), which suggests the market is even more accurate now than only a few years ago.. <br>Another nail in the coffin of the ‘value’ approach?
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