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There has been alot of chat on here since Authorizeds win in the Dante last week that he is either a shoe in or he is too short. So i have set up a poll to see if you would be a backer at the moment at 5/4 or a layer?
I myself would of been a layer before Aidan O Brien said Eagle Mountain is more likely to miss the Derby and opt for the irish Guineas instead in which i cant believe as i always thought he’d relish the longer trip but Aidan should know more than me. Strategic Prince is the only danger i can see really and he dissapointed big time at HQ’s last day and im not sure his particaption is 100% at the moment.
David Elsworths Salford Mill may improve again and reach a place but i’d be a backer at 5/4 currently.
I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast and backed him (at 2.38 on BF). My only slight doubt is his form, was his Dante win truly reflective of Derby winning form? Regardless, no other horse has better form, so he’s a back for me at the moment.
A layer for sure. Any value had is now gone and i’m sure he’ll start longer on the day, especially if the ground rides quicker than good.
I can’t oppose him, as he looks to be in a different league to anything else.  <br>
(Edited by ClintM at 10:15 am on May 22, 2007)
A layer.
I don’t think Archipenko is being given the credit he deserves fotr winning what has traditionally been the strongest trial over the last 7 years. Since 2000, every Derrinstown winner to run at Epsom has finished in the first 4 at Epsom (the exception being Yeats and it would be hard to argue that he wouldn’t have finished in the first 3 that year given subsequent exploits and also how well he handled the track the following season in the Coronation Cup).
I’ll take my chance with Archipenko at 8 times the price of Authorized
Quote: from davidbrady on 9:26 am on May 22, 2007[br]A layer.
I don’t think Archipenko is being given the credit he deserves fotr winning what has traditionally been the strongest trial over the last 7 years. Since 2000, every Derrinstown winner to run at Epsom has finished in the first 4 at Epsom (the exception being Yeats and it would be hard to argue that he wouldn’t have finished in the first 3 that year given subsequent exploits and also how well he handled the track the following season in the Coronation Cup).
I’ll take my chance with Archipenko at 8 times the price of Authorized<br>
Archipenko is still entered for the Irish Guineas. He would probably be a lot shorter if that weren’t the case. Same goes for Eagle Mountain. I hope the later goes to Epsom, as I’ve backed him for small money off the back of the way he finished at Newmarket.
Neither is my answer. I think price could be about right with the slight concern about the ground balancing his obvious class
im happy with my 20’s on aqaleem.
In many ways just seeing PCH (especially…) and frankie win it will be sufficient enjoyment
Friggo, I think you are unlikely to see Eagle Mountain run at Epsom.. Personally he looks a ten furlong horse to me and I think the Champion Stakes will be his target.. Probably half a yard too slow to win a guineas..
I’ve backed the front two.. Can’t see the winner coming from outside of them. O’Brien is quoted as saying Archipenko is an intended runner at epsom and the derrinstown and Dante normally provide the winner so I can;t see past the winners..
Neither a back or lay for me. I don’t back horses at Authorized’s sort of price but I do think he’ll win so I certainly wouldn’t want to lay him.
Quote: from Flash on 5:42 pm on May 22, 2007[br]Neither a back or lay for me. I don’t back horses at Authorized’s sort of price but I do think he’ll win so I certainly wouldn’t want to lay him.
I never understand this logic.. It’s a bit like in the Dante, people were saying they wouldn;t back him due to the price.. If I think an even money shot should be long odds on i’ll always back it..
Much like when Kauto Star ran in his first race of the season, he went off at even money against what were essentially G3 performers but people were saying they wouldn’t back him because of the price?!?
I often think there is as much value in shorter prices as there is in bigger prices… You just have to stake more to see the same profit levels..
It’s Risk vs Reward for me. I’m willing to take a chance that some unforseen circumstances will stop my 10/1 shot winning because I stand to win 10 times my stake but I’m not willing to risk my stake just to double it, irrespective of the perceived value.
Aragorn
I can see that point of view. Simply put, unless the sums you are moving around are significant, then its hardly worth the bother. And there isnt much of a thrill either
Theres plenty of other races
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Quote: from davidbrady on 12:36 pm on May 23, 2007[br]It’s Risk vs Reward for me. I’m willing to take a chance that some unforseen circumstances will stop my 10/1 shot winning because I stand to win 10 times my stake but I’m not willing to risk my stake just to double it, irrespective of the perceived value.<br>
A quick scan of the last 10 Derbys shows the following.
£10 each,first 3 in betting  8 winners; +£82.50<br>£10 each, first 3 @10/1+   1 winner;    -£190
Who goes skint first? ;)
(Edited by reet hard at 1:04 pm on May 23, 2007)
Quote: from reet hard on 1:01 pm on May 23, 2007[br]A quick scan of the last 10 Derbys shows the following.
£10 each,first 3 in betting  8 winners; +£82.50<br>£10 each, first 3 @10/1+   1 winner;    -£190
Who goes skint first? ;)
(Edited by reet hard at 1:04 pm on May 23, 2007)<br>
This system better work. I need to cover my losses from your "lump on the first 10 in the betting in the National" one!:biggrin: ;)
With races containing short priced favs, I tend to have a look to see if something at a bigger price can upset the favourite. If not, then I will leave the race alone, whether or not I think the favourite will win. I don’t lay horses.
Authorized looks like the class act, but what bothers me is his size.
He looks big and going downhill on firm ground could be a big problem.
Just look at last year’s race:
Hala Bek – hasn’t run again<br>Visindar – hasn’t run again<br>Septimus – out for 11 months after the Derby <br>Sir Percy – out for 4 months after the Derby <br>Horatio Nelson – broke down during Derby
The race took it’s toll on a lot of horses and Authorized could easily turn out to hate the experience.
So,
good-to-firm: layer<br>good-to-soft: backer
Steve
Quote: from clivex on 12:39 pm on May 23, 2007[br]Aragorn
I can see that point of view. Simply put, unless the sums you are moving around are significant, then its hardly worth the bother. And there isnt much of a thrill either
Theres plenty of other races<br>
Clive, I can kind of understand that, if you are only playing for fun and don’t mind losing money.. But I would take a winning bet over a losing bet every single time.. I would also prefer 3 even money winners to one 3/1 winner…
I would also prefer 3 even money winners to one 3/1 winner…
why? In effect, you have risked three times as much for the same return
Also, because some do not bet to huge amounts doesnt mean that they are not taking it just as seriously or that they are losing :)
Isnt there a school of thought (backed up by some stats) that short price winners are generally less profitable and are also ‘over bet’ compared to your more run of mill 3-1 shot?
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