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Are you saying bet the same amount on all horses, whatever price, however much value there is in the bet?
For some time I had this approach. However, I found (regarding my profit / loss) it did not matter if the short priced horses won or lost. My record with outsiders mattered tremendously.
If I had 1point on a 2/1 shot the return would be 3 points (2 points profit).
If 20/1, 21 points (20 points profit). Risking the same on something with (theoretically at least) vastly different chances of winning.Then I changed to back everything to win the same amount. But this had the opposite effect. Mattered little about the outsiders. With stakes so big on the short priced horses it mattered more if they won or lost.
So now I bet with stakes directly in relation to the chance of the horse (the table of odds and chances).
Yes level stakes regardless of price or assessed edge (value)
Essentially you’re using the Kelly Criterion http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion to determine stake Ginger i.e you stake more heavily the greater you assess the value/edge/advantage to be. This is all fine and dandy in principle , and is undoubtedly the soundest strategy to maximise profit but with one very big proviso: in necessitates the accurate assessment of ‘true odds’. Now I am quite prepared to believe you are better at this than I am but what I found (and I’ve tried all forms of staking including your favoured stakes-to-edge Kelly type) is that although I’m competent at knowing when a horse is value (I make a long-term profit) and hence worth a bet I am not good at assessing its true chance, hence Kelly for me did not perform any better than level stakes, though as it happened there wasn’t a great deal in it.
Two other advantages of level stakes IMO is that firstly its good for the blood pressure minimising the after-the-event ‘wish I had more/less on’ and secondly maximises profit on winning longer shots when the natural inclination is to have less on, as the chance of winning is deemed less.
I’m certainly not saying level stakes is the only way to stake, simply that for me – and I suspect the majority if they took time to analyse their bets – it is a simple and efficient way to operate
The boredom point is well made though. For the recreational punter not concerned about long term profit or the maximsing of that profit, stake whatever you like and enjoy the moment.
Ekeing out a profit from punting is indeed essentially a boring exercise.
Guys – can you stick the really rather dull Value debate in its own thread. Its just ruins a nice discussion thread….again.
FWIW – I wont be writing off Crack yet. He did make a couple of mistakes but he also showed that he wanted to keep going….which will be required to win the race at Chelts. I can see Bino slowing to a stop up the hill, and Crack dragging the last two hurdles with him as he surges past.
I think Jack has the engine but does not jump well enough, not in comparison to Binocular (Who Fists forgets was the best bet ever last season and got beaten at cheltenham) who’s jumping is slick but I have my doubts will get up the hill (Again)..
That’s the only doubt I have about Binocular to be fair. I think McCoy might have to nurse him up the hill and I fear that something will outstay him.
Aragorn lets set the record straight here. I backed Binocular for the trimph EW a and lost out but thanks to Carv I bet him EW at 16/1 EW for plenty then backed him again at 16/1. I sat up for 24 hours wating for news on what was what and the moment it was told he was running in he Supreme I backed him again at 16/1 ew……overall I made plenty out of Binocular and if you look back he was the biggest bet for years when I got 10/11 about him before the triumph ,,,,,,,but he wasn’t my biggest bet of the season if you care to look back that was Master Minded who was my biggest bet I ever had in my life………I wrote my best ever summary on the QMCC and everything I said was exactly how it turned out. I backed the horse accordingly.
Look back my record for EW bets at Cheltenham in fact here’s a reminder. Sizing Europe 16/1 ew started 6/4 and was unlucky. KaTCHIT 12/1 EW won,,,,Tidal Bay 12/1 EW won…..Noland 16/1 ew placed…..Master Minded 11/4 won….New Alco 20/1 placed……….Kalahari King 25/1 placed……Crack Away Jack 5/1 won 14/1 Kauto Star 2nd and so on…..I barely had a losing bet at Chelters matey…..It was in fact my best Cheltenham ever………..This seaon albeit Zarkava who I was screaming about since June (look back my posts) won me so much money I couldn’t give a fook if every horse I back between now and March lost.
BTW I am pig sick of idiots trying to find a way to bring me down…..What is it with people like you just seems the more correct you are the more you plonkers throw abuse. Keep it up Aragorn I love the crack and your a great guy but next time get your facts right………
Alright Fister, chill your pants… Your always very loud when you have a point to make.. Always very quiet when the cap should be in your hand.. All I said was Binocular was the best bet ever according to you and he got turned over, which if I remember rightly he did. I didn’t say anything else. Fair enough if you said for the triumph but he may well have got beaten in that.
IMO he will be very very hard to beat on flat tracks as he looks lightning quick. But unless it comes up good I would be opposing him (this year) up the cheltenham hill. The Boylesports will be interesting if he lines up against Katchit.
Yes Ginge, just how do you initially decide on the chance of a horse winning – as expressed in percentage – leaving aside the odds for a moment. I think we get the gist on that side of things by now.
I asked you this question before and I am still waiting on a satisfactory answer. We are aware how you work it out via set figures – and someone else asked a similar question too – but just how on earth can you realistically put a concrete percentage figure on a horse’s chance of winning any particular race ?
Again, leaving aside the odds for a moment- it is, I would suggest, based solely on guess work and is nothing more than mere conjecture. There is certainly no scientific basis behind it – that’s for sure.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
………….but just how on earth can you realistically put a concrete percentage figure on a horse’s chance of winning any particular race ?
Again, leaving aside the odds for a moment- it is, I would suggest, based solely on guess work and is nothing more than mere conjecture. There is certainly no scientific basis behind it – that’s for sure.
To be fair to Ginge, there is nothing at all wrong with his approach, but it is equally true to say that there is no ‘science’ behind appending a percentage chance to a runner.
Ultimately, it is an exercise in subjective assessment – with value absolutely in the eye of the beholder i.e. Ginge’s 1/2 (50%) chance can be a 6/4 (40%) chance in my book – and neither of us can be proven correct or incorrect.
The only arbiter that counts is profit and loss, and you don’t measure that over the course of a single race.
- Total Posts 17716
Alright Fister, chill your pants… Your always very loud when you have a point to make.. Always very quiet when the cap should be in your hand.. All I said was Binocular was the best bet ever according to you and he got turned over, which if I remember rightly he did. I didn’t say anything else. Fair enough if you said for the triumph but he may well have got beaten in that.
IMO he will be very very hard to beat on flat tracks as he looks lightning quick. But unless it comes up good I would be opposing him (this year) up the cheltenham hill. The Boylesports will be interesting if he lines up against Katchit.
Can’t see it myself, Aragorn.
The Christmas hurdle would be much more his cup of tea, and it’s probably pointless him being exposed to a slog until he has to.Probably not but he is entered.. The Kempton race would certainly be my choice if he were mine.
Ian, Himself,
I have brought to the fore a post I made in the Horse Racing section, Question For Tha Racing Media thread.
This should answer your questions, beware it is a long post and take any posts on value etc. away from this thread.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingIan, Himself,
I have brought to the fore a post I made in the Horse Racing section, Question For Tha Racing Media thread.
This should answer your questions, beware it is a long post and take any posts on value etc. away from this thread.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherThanks Gingertipster, but it seems to me you are too wrapped and immersed up in a plethora of numbers to basically grasp and appreciate the fundamental meaning behind my question. But carry on regardless and may your profits soar all the same. But somewhere in there you did concede that ( as Grasshopper pointed out ) it’s about opinions formed and at it’s heart, subjective.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Ian, Himself,
I have brought to the fore a post I made in the Horse Racing section, Question For Tha Racing Media thread.
This should answer your questions, beware it is a long post and take any posts on value etc. away from this thread.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherThanks Gingertipster, but it seems to me you are too wrapped and immersed up in a plethora of numbers to basically grasp and appreciate the fundamental meaning behind my question. But carry on regardless and may your profits soar all the same. But somewhere in there you did concede that ( as Grasshopper pointed out ) it’s about opinions formed and at it’s heart, subjective.
Of course it is all about opinions, I never said it was not. GH is absolutely right, it is informed opinion (not guess work). The same as early odds a bookmaker gives is an odds compilers opinion. If an odds compiler can form an informed opinion about the chances of each horse, then there is no reason we can not do the same. By studying form in the same way as an odds compiler would.
So what was the fundamental meaning of your question Himself? Please explain.
I am sure there are punters better at studying form / odds compiling than me.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingSurely the bulk of the last few pages would be more in line with the dedicated systems section of the forum, rather than the ascot hurdle thread in the big races section. I can’t help but feel that any constructive opinion or analysis of the race in question has and is being swamped in a not completely relevant topic that has already been done to death so many times before on other threads.
I dont mean to come across as a knobhead but this thread is slowly absorbing my will to live.
- Total Posts 17716
Surely the bulk of the last few pages would be more in line with the dedicated systems section of the forum, rather than the ascot hurdle thread in the big races section. I can’t help but feel that any constructive opinion or analysis of the race in question has and is being swamped in a not completely relevant topic that has already been done to death so many times before on other threads.
I dont mean to come across as a knobhead but this thread is slowly absorbing my will to live.
Bulwark
I empathise.
In this case the ‘knobhead’ is copper, and like most rabid evangelists, has little care for other’s viewpoints.Alright Fister, chill your pants… Your always very loud when you have a point to make.. Always very quiet when the cap should be in your hand.. All I said was Binocular was the best bet ever according to you and he got turned over, which if I remember rightly he did. I didn’t say anything else. Fair enough if you said for the triumph but he may well have got beaten in that.
IMO he will be very very hard to beat on flat tracks as he looks lightning quick. But unless it comes up good I would be opposing him (this year) up the cheltenham hill. The Boylesports will be interesting if he lines up against Katchit.
Can’t see it myself, Aragorn.
The Christmas hurdle would be much more his cup of tea, and it’s probably pointless him being exposed to a slog until he has to.Sorry mate was drunk as a skunk.
As far as the Cheltenham Hill is concerned Nickysaid prior to themeeting Binocular would be much better suited by the Triumph Hurdle course which is the stiffer of the two I believe.
Nicky Henderson keeps emphaising the point that Binny needs bundles of work to get him spot on. It was thought by everyone he wasn’t going to run at Chletenham and that Aintree would be his target.
In light of that it may not have been only the difference in the courses that saw him blow Celestial Halo away like he was a selling plater. He may well have been a much fitter horse at Aintree.
I am not too worrried…you have to get him of the bridle first and if he has improved from 4 to 5 as you would expect he will be a much stronger horse this season and the hill be less than a problem if infact it actually was.
My biggest fear is not the hill it’s Sizing Europe Katchit and Crack Away Jack either of whom are perfectly capable of beating him as things stand at the moment.
The real test will come if he meets one of the above before Cheltenham as right now he has beat nothing that we know to be Champion Hurdle class, if you exclude CAJ who was as big as a bull when they met at Ascot.
I think and hope he will win the Champion Hurdle but he looks a silly price at the moment for what he has actually achieved.
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Ian, Himself,
I have brought to the fore a post I made in the Horse Racing section, Question For Tha Racing Media thread.
This should answer your questions, beware it is a long post and take any posts on value etc. away from this thread.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherAs you can see Bulwark I have invited others to a different thread for the value topic. So I totally agree with you it should not be on this thread.
Reet, I think I’d better ignore that last comment of yours.
Mark
The one with the copper coloured top.Value Is Everything
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