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Binocular’s CH price was much the same after the race as before it.
The ‘reaction’ was a result of the defeat of joint-fav Crackaway Jack some 15 mins later.Fair point Reet but still think it is an over reaction.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingO.k. Drone, if you insist.
Fist,
If you get value you win FULL STOP.
Please look further than the one race and make an effort to understand simple mathematics.
Say a punter backs Crack Away Jack at 11/8.
If the punter (in the long run) does not win better than 42.1% of his bets at 11/8 he will not show an overall profit.
Therefore, there is absolutely no point in backing Crack Away Jack unless the punter believes it has a better than 42% chance of winning. If he has no idea whether it is value or not there is also no point in backing it, in the long run he will not get value enough times to show an overall profit.On the other hand a better than 23.1% strike rate is needed to make a profit on bets at 100/30. Therefore, if a punter believes Chomba Womba has a better than 23% chance of winning he should back him. Even though he believes Chomba Womba has a worse chance of winning than Crack Away Jack.
If at the end of a very long period a punter (whether he does or does not work out 100% books) has won more than 23% of his bets at 100/30 he can say he has got value AND MADE A PROFIT. The two go hand in hand. Therefore, in the long run it does not matter if Chomba Womba wins or loses, as long as he wins more than 23% of his bets at 100/30. Backing the horse is just another opportunity to back something you believe is good value. This is how every professional gambler invests.
If (whether making 100% books or not) he has NOT won more than 23% of his bets at 100/30 he can NOT SAY HE HAS GOT VALUE and does NOT make a profit. The two go hand in hand.
If a punter always backs the horse he believes has the best chance of winning he WILL NOT MAKE A PROFIT in the long run. Some favourites might be value but a lot more will not be.
[b:1asikyre]IF A PUNTER GETS VALUE THE WINNERS COME AND HE MAKES A PROFIT.[/b:1asikyre]
Mark[/u][/i]
Well done Ginge you picked a winner but then again I remember when I said Binny would win the Champion Hurdle you tipped Khyber Kim…….you aren’t the best judge on here by a long way so enjoy your moment of glory while you can
The above post is dice throwing and is only any good for the idots in racing who bet everyday……….you talk about Value as if I don’t know anything about it,
Go look back my posts and see how many AP bets I had at huge odds and how many I was paid out on……….I saw the value before you got out your bed in the morning,,,,,,,,,I got 22/1 Binocular plus 20/1 3 times plus 16/1 etc etc..he’s 3/1 now and I could lay him now and walk away with plenty.
The minute you open your mouth you shoot yourself in the foot….You said” Say a punter backs Crack Away Jack at 11/8.
If the punter (in the long run) does not win better than 42.1% of his bets at 11/8 he will not show an overall profit.”Who the hell backs only 11.8 shots or who backs 10 8/1 shots in the hope 2 will win…….and more importntaly who puts the same amount on every horse,….If I put 3 million quid on a 1/3 shot and it wins I can have tenner bets on forever making 1/3 good value…….I had an abolutely massive bet on MM at 11/4 in the QMCC…..do you think I am stupid enough to lose it on 6 11/4 losers………
Price is for the most part irrelevant and you are playing with figures to support your claims……if if if if if ,,,if nothing Ginge……
Getting back to Chomba Womba well done Ginge can’t say I am too concerned that CAJ lost,,,,,,,,I don’t believe he drifted due to masses of money on the winner,,,,,,,not unless it’s a new system the bookies have,,,,,,,,All the money was for the second but he drifted and there were no large best recorded on the winner? Your the expert you tell me
Fist,
I do not tip horses because I think they are going to win races, I tip them because I believe they are good value at that point to win. Though yes, I may have been wrong about Khyber Kym, no-one is right all the time.
Why dice throwing? Why only of use for every day gamblers? If it is of use for every day then surely it is of use any day? Non-betting days far outweigh my betting days anyway.
Sure we can come up with good prices we have taken. Despite what happened today I have 59/1 and 50/1 Crack Away Jack for the Champion. Have saved on Binocular (only at 6/1, good prices you’ve got there, well done). And as you said about Master Minded, I backed him for the Champion Chase last year at 12/1 as you know. But it is not an I backed bigger than you argument.
It is evident from your posts that you do not understand fully about TRUE value. It is not the same as the Tommo or Leslie Graham definition of “value”. True Value does not mean backing horses at big prices. A 1/5, 6/4, 4/1, 12/1 or 33/1 shot can all be true value. A 1/5 shot can be value if you consider it to have a better than 83% chance of winning. A 33/1 shot better than 3% chance, and so on.
Of course, if you put a lot more on one particular horse and that one horse happens to win with the rest losing. You can get away with more or less anything. But this will be luck, plain luck. If a punter backed ten horses he believes to be 33% chances, and only one wins, he will be LUCKY if that happens to be the one with 50 times as much stake as the others. Before the races take place there is absolutely no knowing which “33%” chance of the ten would win. It is therefore just luck that he shows a profit. If he puts the same amount on all bar one horse, with less on that one 33% chance. It would be unlucky if the sole winner was the small stakes bet.
If someone relies on luck alone, the fewer bets he makes the better chance of showing a profit. Because the more often someone bets the less likely it is luck will play a part. Doubt whether there are many punters on TRF who only have a couple of bets a year. Most are regular gamblers interested in taking luck out of gambling / investing.
I try with my examples (which I will not go in to again) to take luck out of the equation by using level stakes in my theory. But if you want to rely on luck then that is up to you Fist.
It is entirely wrong to say prices are irrelevant. Otherwise why isn’t every horse in every race the same price? Every horse in every race has a different chance of winning, therefore every horse has a different price worthy of being taken. It might be of some use for you to learn how an odds compiler works out early prices, better not go in to that here.
I am not saying anyone backs solely 11/8 or 100/30 chances, have just split a punters bets in to categories of price. To make things simpler to follow.
I am not “playing with figures”, just explaining things with the use of figures. “Ifs”, well surely racing is all about “ifs”.
I very much doubt all the money was for Crack Away Jack on course Fist. Otherwise he certainly would not have drifted so badly. I’d like to think punters on course realised Chomba Womba was a very good value bet and forced her in by weight of money (it does not have to come in big bets). Another possible reason is the exceptional form the Henderson team were in over the last two weeks (which was allowed for in my assessment). Another, the unfashionable connections of Crack Away Jack. Particularly his conditional jockey who was unable to claim (being a graded race). Matt Williams, Trading Post (Racing Post) also identified CAJ as a good lay at early prices (copying me I suspect, tee hee). Probably a mixture of all those reasons. Or of course they might have seen Gingertipster go for Chomba Womba and say Crack Away Jack was very short on TRF!
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingFookin luck you cheeky beggar
…..now that is funny.CAJ….I have followed the horses every move since Ruby got off him at Ascot a race I backed him in won by Binny funnily enough. The best price I ever saw was 40/1 which I took right after he won at Cheltenham and first entered the Champion Hurdle betting. Guess being out in the sticks has it’s draw backs.
well done on that I just don’t remember you ever mentioning the horse………..but you having 6 bets a day on 4 horses in each of those 6 races you are bound to bet every single horse on the planet eventually Level stake betting is for amatuers IMVHO……luck has very little to do with betting it’s a word made up for losers with UN stuck in front of it….it’s having the good judgement and knowing when to get stuck in that keeps you in profit..e.g..Nevertika 3/1, Binocular 10/11 and 6/4, Master Minded 11/4, Zarkava 7/1 class horses all backed at the right time all won…no way am I having my 200p on some dirtbag 2 bit selling plater I know bog all about. I have 2p on those for fun. Incidentally what was lucky about Zarkava’s win or any of those for that matter……all won in hack canters apart from Binny’s 10/11 win
My idea of this game and how to go about betting is totally different to yours and it would take me 20 years to achieve what I acheive in a season if I listened to you.plus I would be bored out my skull.
I try to cover my ass evertime I have a large bet, I don’t depend on AP bets coming off they are the icing on the cake so to say. Although I have hammered Binny from virtually day one even if he loses Zarkava won me enough not to give a hoot what happens to him from a betting point of view and there isn’t even a sniff of aftertiming here mate.
So let’s say I bet every horse of level stakes of 100 pts instead of 10,000 pts on each of the above where would I be…..I honestly believe those who bet level stakes are admitting they simply don’t know how to spot a good bet or a good horse.when they see it.
To each his own Ginge but when you talk about value it makes me cringe……all about winners and having the balls to back them mate, not sums.
Have a great day and if Binny does win the Champion I’ll but you a new collar for yer next sermon
Fist the Magnificent,
I am not advocating level stakes on everything, just the ones you think have the same chance of winning.
To put it in to points:
Any horse I believe has a 25% chance will have 25 points on it. Any 12.5% chance will have 12.5 points on it. 5% 5 points etc.Because I believe if something has twice the chance of something else it should have double the stake.
Well, good luck Fist, you are going to need it with your approach.
I do not believe some people on this forum. They seem to want to bury their heads in the sand, or should that be Equitrack?
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingSo you think what? That if he cant beat this lot he will have a better chance of winning the Champion Hurdle..you got [expletive] for brains or what?
Here’s what I think, Fist.
Saturday’s race was over 2m3.5f, and Crack Away Jack faced two horses well suited by the trip, and both of whom were proven mid-150 performers. Not only was it a decent performance in defeat, for me it franked his Official Rating of 158. That rating puts him within a half-stone or so of what it will take to win a Champion Hurdle, and with only 6 runs over hurdles under his belt, further improvement is certainly possible, when he is returned to 2m.
I maintain that you are wrong to be writing him off for the Champion Hurdle on the strength of this defeat, as the race is a complete irrelevance as far as next year’s Champion Hurdle is concerned.
PS. If you want to start trading insults with me, I’m a 1.01 chance to win that particular event. Just so you know.
How many of you take the time to convert your actual bets to level stakes for comparison?
I would humbly suggest it’s a most worthwhile exercise, and may well prove to be an eye-opener
Ginge / Fists FFS shut up before I have to turn violent. Its like watching Punch and Judy with you pair.
Both of you have different approaches both of you have success (so you both say) so whats the problem? Just accept that that there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Lecture over.
PS! Ginge, one question – when you say something has (for example) greater than a 25% chance, how do you (personally) decide on its percentage? Why not 20% or 30%, or 23% or 28%?
PPS! I must go on record as agree withs Fists on the level staking thing and the boredom thing but I do appreciate the worth of value as well.
Grass
Wouldnt you be slightly concerned about CAJ’s actual hurdling? I would want to see him run again before taking an interest. Actual hurdling technique is vital in CH i always feel. Binocular skips his obstacles beuatifully
It’s a different issue to the one Fist raised, Clivex.
For me, you can look at Saturday’s run one of two ways.
You either take the view that CAJ doesn’t jump well enough to win a Champion Hurdle, which to be fair, is a perfectly legitimate stance to adopt……..or you take the view that he has been upped massively in class, jumped poorly, and yet still managed to finish amongst horses who are rated in the mid 150’s.
It’s possible that he was taken out of his jumping comfort zone by better horses, but it’s equally possible that his technique can improve too, after only a handful of hurdles starts.
Is he a Champion Hurdler waiting to happen? Not obviously, no.
Is he a forlorn hope in the Champion Hurdle? Again, I’d have to say no. I think there was plenty of merit in the run, to be honest.
Agree
i do put a premium on hurdling ability. Katchit and Hardy two recent examples of neat and tidy hurdlers of course. The race is naturally going to (and has done) expose flaws in this area like no other.
I think Jack has the engine but does not jump well enough, not in comparison to Binocular (Who Fists forgets was the best bet ever last season and got beaten at cheltenham) who’s jumping is slick but I have my doubts will get up the hill (Again)..
I think Jack has the engine but does not jump well enough, not in comparison to Binocular (Who Fists forgets was the best bet ever last season and got beaten at cheltenham) who’s jumping is slick but I have my doubts will get up the hill (Again)..
That’s the only doubt I have about Binocular to be fair. I think McCoy might have to nurse him up the hill and I fear that something will outstay him.
Ginge / Fists FFS shut up before I have to turn violent. Its like watching Punch and Judy with you pair.
Both of you have different approaches both of you have success (so you both say) so whats the problem? Just accept that that there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Lecture over.
PS! Ginge, one question – when you say something has (for example) greater than a 25% chance, how do you (personally) decide on its percentage? Why not 20% or 30%, or 23% or 28%?
PPS! I must go on record as agree withs Fists on the level staking thing and the boredom thing but I do appreciate the worth of value as well.
Ian,
By responding to some members there will be others who are bored.How am I supposed to shut up about this topic, yet answer your question which is all about value?I
Could it be you are more interested than you are letting on.
Might send a PM and risk boring you with my answer, if I consider you deserve an answer.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingGinge / Fists FFS shut up before I have to turn violent. Its like watching Punch and Judy with you pair.
Both of you have different approaches both of you have success (so you both say) so whats the problem? Just accept that that there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Lecture over.
PS! Ginge, one question – when you say something has (for example) greater than a 25% chance, how do you (personally) decide on its percentage? Why not 20% or 30%, or 23% or 28%?
PPS! I must go on record as agree withs Fists on the level staking thing and the boredom thing but I do appreciate the worth of value as well.
Ian,
By responding to some members there will be others who are bored.How am I supposed to shut up about this topic, yet answer your question which is all about value?I
Could it be you are more interested than you are letting on.
Might send a PM and risk boring you with my answer, if I consider you deserve an answer.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherHa ha.
I would actually be genuinely interested in your answer so if you care to PM me I’ll look forward to reading it.
I’d endorse what Drone has said regarding same stakes on selections.
In the Summer of this year I looked at my last few hundred bets (I bet in only class 2 races and above, and back between 1 and 4 horses in a race).
I analysed my bets to level stakes; to a percentage of my betting bank and also the actual stakes I put on. The results were surprising. The level stakes approach was by far the most profitable.
It may be boring, it may seem illogical at times – but it works for me.
Sorry for the interruption!
Drone, ROF,
Are you saying bet the same amount on all horses, whatever price, however much value there is in the bet?
For some time I had this approach. However, I found (regarding my profit / loss) it did not matter if the short priced horses won or lost. My record with outsiders mattered tremendously.
If I had 1point on a 2/1 shot the return would be 3 points (2 points profit).
If 20/1, 21 points (20 points profit). Risking the same on something with (theoretically at least) vastly different chances of winning.Then I changed to back everything to win the same amount. But this had the opposite effect. Mattered little about the outsiders. With stakes so big on the short priced horses it mattered more if they won or lost.
So now I bet with stakes directly in relation to the chance of the horse (the table of odds and chances).
As said earlier I believe a horse with double the chance of winning should have twice the stake.
A horse I believe has a 2/1 33.33% chance (33 points staked at anything better than 2/1) whould get double stake of a 5/1 16.67% (17 points staked at anything better than 5/1).
Say it is 33 points at 9/4 returns 107.25 points (74.25 points profit). 17 points at 6/1 returns 119 points (102 points profit). Which to my mind is fairer. The stakes being more on the 2/1 shot but risk of losing much more if it loses, so the profit should not be as much as a 5/1 shot.Also this way the more value is there the more the bet wins.
If I think a horse has a 2/1 33% chance yet is top priced 4/1 it will have 33 points at 4/1, returning 165 points (making a profit of 132 points).I will probably find a flaw in this aswell but yet to find it.
Each to his own and all that.
Sorry this is going off topic.
MarkValue Is EverythingI think Jack has the engine but does not jump well enough, not in comparison to Binocular (Who Fists forgets was the best bet ever last season and got beaten at cheltenham) who’s jumping is slick but I have my doubts will get up the hill (Again)..
Having seen him in the flesh for the first time on Saturday, I’d suggest the Hill will always be more foe than friend for Binocular. He looks 100% speed.
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