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At the beginning of the season I was sceptical about CAJ as a Champion Hurdle horse but it doesn’t look a particularly strong year yet and as results have accumulated CAJ is starting to look properly priced at under 8/1.
I hate to see Champion hurdle horses running above 16f (except maybe as a novice) and I agree its a strange choice of race, given other opportunities could be more rewarding both educationally and financially.
I think he will win tomorrow but hope he can put them away without a battle in the straight.Crack Away Jack has got a decent turn of foot but he has won at Cheltehham and never looked like stopping….horse has speed and stamina and will need to take this race in his stride if he is going to have any chance in the Champion Hurdle.
Complete and utter cobblers. Since when was this race a pointer to the Champion Hurdle?
I’d have to agree with Fist. If CAJ is as serious a contender for Chelts as his prominence in the betting suggests, then he’d have to win here. If he doesn’t, i’m sure his price will change and the form of his reappearance race win, shot down. I’m pretty sure there are previous champion hurdlers that have won races prior to the CH that were not considered bonifide pointers beforehand.
I’m knowhere near convinced by CAJ yet and i’m sure his form will take a mauling before long, but if he wins well tomorrow, he’ll have to be on the very short list for me.
It was around a year ago that Katchit was comprehensively outpointed in his first run out of 4yo company. Defeat didn’t appear to dent his Festival credentials on iota.
Anyone writing off CAJ for the Champion Hurdle if he is defeated tomorrow is playing a dangerous game, imo – especially so, given the Ascot contest is over almost half a mile further than the big race in March. It’s entirely possible that he simply won’t get home tomorrow.
Katchit has to be an accception as he seems eight pounds better at Chelt than anywhere else. I for one, didn’t lose hope on him.
The biggest pointer as to whether CAJ can win the CH will be the essence of his victory/defeat. I’m sure he gets every yard of 2m3f of Ascot.
CAJ’s form through Squadron keeps on looking better and better, Art Professor winning at Ascot today giving it another timely boost.
With the ground good it’ll be crack away jack for me, I dont think he will be tested too much on good ground, it should be within his compass, but I expect they will try to make it a test. However CAJ is a bit shorter than I’d like to play so I’ll be watching with excitement.
I have big prices about Crack Away Jack for the Champion but he is an awful price tomorrow. I’d want 85/40 or bigger to back him. Chomba Womba at 7/2 is the bet.
CAJ has won his races by his speed, yet goes up 3f in trip. It is also at a track that suits those ridden up with the pace (since the changes). He is always held up or dropped out the back.
My 100% prices are:
Crack Away Jack 2/1, Chomba Womba 5/2, Elusive Dream 4/1, Franchoek 15/2, Lough Derg 33/1, Kawagino 40/1, Alph 300/1, Bullhill Flyer 500/1.Mark
2/1? bookies would be killed in the avalanche
Crack Away Jack has got a decent turn of foot but he has won at Cheltehham and never looked like stopping….horse has speed and stamina and will need to take this race in his stride if he is going to have any chance in the Champion Hurdle.I thought you looked for value? considering Chomba Womba is about Nicky Henderson’s 4rth or 5th string I can’t see for the life of me how you can fancy her and if anything she’s the one who’s way too short.
Fist,
You do not understand "true value" Fist.
2/1 is the price I would want to beat, not the price I think it will be. At 33% plus the mark up of 3% (for an unexposed sort). 36%, make that 36.4% = 7/4. So 7/4 would be my "bookmakers price", not 2/1. CAJ won the Fred Winter by speed, he won the Free Handicap by speed. May be he will stay another 3f but it is not proven yet. His early price this morning is stupid.Fist,
I am confident I can identify value, not neccesasrily the winner, but value. I am pretty sure Chomba Womba will be backed at the early price and Crack Away Jack will drift. Therefore:
I bet you Chomba Womba’s SP will be shorter than the longest early price. And Crack Away Jack’s SP will be bigger than the longest early price.Mark
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Echo the comments about the race choice by Lavelle .. regardless of the outcome (i would personally lay him), this is not the right race to choose for her horse, and makes no sense, what with the fighting fifth and Boylesports on the horizon.
Seems perfectly logical to me?
EL probably doesn’t know whether the horse is true Champion Hurdle class just yet, and better to run him in a race where he can still pick up a useful prize, yet run on better terms than he would in either a gd1 or a handicap. The distance really shouldn’t be a big issue; it’s 3f further, but on an easier track and faster ground than he’ll get in the CH, so he’d need to win fairly well to convince me he’s the right material.
Though Chomba Womba has won on good ground, she’s been more impressive with cut, and that will probably swing it against her imo.
Elusive Dream probably isn’t good enough, and appeared lucky to beat Franchoek, and though Franchoek has it to do on the ratings, he’s always looked a horse that would benefit from further, and ridden more positively than he was at Aintree, I couldn’t have him out of the first 3.
With the dead 8, Franchoek each way looks much the safest way of ensuring a profit on a fascinating race – imo, of courseCrack Away Jack has got a decent turn of foot but he has won at Cheltehham and never looked like stopping….horse has speed and stamina and will need to take this race in his stride if he is going to have any chance in the Champion Hurdle.
Complete and utter cobblers. Since when was this race a pointer to the Champion Hurdle?
So you think what? That if he cant beat this lot he will have a better chance of winning the Champion Hurdle..you got **** for brains or what?
I have big prices about Crack Away Jack for the Champion but he is an awful price tomorrow. I’d want 85/40 or bigger to back him. Chomba Womba at 7/2 is the bet.
CAJ has won his races by his speed, yet goes up 3f in trip. It is also at a track that suits those ridden up with the pace (since the changes). He is always held up or dropped out the back.
My 100% prices are:
Crack Away Jack 2/1, Chomba Womba 5/2, Elusive Dream 4/1, Franchoek 15/2, Lough Derg 33/1, Kawagino 40/1, Alph 300/1, Bullhill Flyer 500/1.Mark
2/1? bookies would be killed in the avalanche
Crack Away Jack has got a decent turn of foot but he has won at Cheltehham and never looked like stopping….horse has speed and stamina and will need to take this race in his stride if he is going to have any chance in the Champion Hurdle.I thought you looked for value? considering Chomba Womba is about Nicky Henderson’s 4rth or 5th string I can’t see for the life of me how you can fancy her and if anything she’s the one who’s way too short.
Fist,
You do not understand "true value" Fist.
2/1 is the price I would want to beat, not the price I think it will be. At 33% plus the mark up of 3% (for an unexposed sort). 36%, make that 36.4% = 7/4. So 7/4 would be my "bookmakers price", not 2/1. CAJ won the Fred Winter by speed, he won the Free Handicap by speed. May be he will stay another 3f but it is not proven yet. His early price this morning is stupid.Fist,
I am confident I can identify value, not neccesasrily the winner, but value. I am pretty sure Chomba Womba will be backed at the early price and Crack Away Jack will drift. Therefore:
I bet you Chomba Womba’s SP will be shorter than the longest early price. And Crack Away Jack’s SP will be bigger than the longest early price.Mark
I will tell you what I understand mate..I understand that Crack Away Jack is shorter than Katchit for the CH, I understand that Chomba Womba was in reciept of 18 lbs from Katchit and gets a lousy 1lb of Crack Away Jack….so either every bookie in the country has it wrong or CAW is in a different class to CW…no pro punter would bet against CAW on those terms and you my friend are talking absolute BS. The only way CAJ will drift if if there is bad vibes about him on the course but on form and expectations he’s a 4/5 shot. I keep telling you the only way to get value is to bet winners.there is no ifs and buts about that in this game.
Franchoek for me.
8-1 is too big in a race where the favourite’s trainer has thrown up a slight negative about the ground
Fist,
If you get value you win FULL STOP.
Please look further than the one race and make an effort to understand simple mathematics.
Say a punter backs Crack Away Jack at 11/8.
If the punter (in the long run) does not win better than 42.1% of his bets at 11/8 he will not show an overall profit.
Therefore, there is absolutely no point in backing Crack Away Jack unless the punter believes it has a better than 42% chance of winning. If he has no idea whether it is value or not there is also no point in backing it, in the long run he will not get value enough times to show an overall profit.On the other hand a better than 23.1% strike rate is needed to make a profit on bets at 100/30. Therefore, if a punter believes Chomba Womba has a better than 23% chance of winning he should back him. Even though he believes Chomba Womba has a worse chance of winning than Crack Away Jack.
If at the end of a very long period a punter (whether he does or does not work out 100% books) has won more than 23% of his bets at 100/30 he can say he has got value AND MADE A PROFIT. The two go hand in hand. Therefore, in the long run it does not matter if Chomba Womba wins or loses, as long as he wins more than 23% of his bets at 100/30. Backing the horse is just another opportunity to back something you believe is good value. This is how every professional gambler invests.
If (whether making 100% books or not) he has NOT won more than 23% of his bets at 100/30 he can NOT SAY HE HAS GOT VALUE and does NOT make a profit. The two go hand in hand.
If a punter always backs the horse he believes has the best chance of winning he WILL NOT MAKE A PROFIT in the long run. Some favourites might be value but a lot more will not be.
[b:mgy9xptc]IF A PUNTER GETS VALUE THE WINNERS COME AND HE MAKES A PROFIT.[/b:mgy9xptc]
Mark[/u][/i]
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
I think you’re beginning to take yourself too seriously, Ginge. Value, sadly, isn’t the be all and end all of profitable betting.
May the preaching cease.
Crack Away Jack didnt look at his best the whole way round there but still threw in one hell of performance despite mistakes, I was hoping they might take him outwards in the champ hurdle betting a bit, but 7s seems to be the best on offer at present.
Didnt think binocular looked fully stoked up either today so the 3-1 ladbrokes are currently offering looks more than a shade cheeky, on the strength of the form.
I have big prices about Crack Away Jack for the Champion but he is an awful price tomorrow. I’d want 85/40 or bigger to back him. Chomba Womba at 7/2 is the bet.
CAJ has won his races by his speed, yet goes up 3f in trip. It is also at a track that suits those ridden up with the pace (since the changes). He is always held up or dropped out the back.
My 100% prices are:
Crack Away Jack 2/1, Chomba Womba 5/2, Elusive Dream 4/1, Franchoek 15/2, Lough Derg 33/1, Kawagino 40/1, Alph 300/1, Bullhill Flyer 500/1.Mark
2/1? bookies would be killed in the avalanche
Crack Away Jack has got a decent turn of foot but he has won at Cheltehham and never looked like stopping….horse has speed and stamina and will need to take this race in his stride if he is going to have any chance in the Champion Hurdle.I thought you looked for value? considering Chomba Womba is about Nicky Henderson’s 4rth or 5th string I can’t see for the life of me how you can fancy her and if anything she’s the one who’s way too short.
Fist,
You do not understand "true value" Fist.
2/1 is the price I would want to beat, not the price I think it will be. At 33% plus the mark up of 3% (for an unexposed sort). 36%, make that 36.4% = 7/4. So 7/4 would be my "bookmakers price", not 2/1. CAJ won the Fred Winter by speed, he won the Free Handicap by speed. May be he will stay another 3f but it is not proven yet. His early price this morning is stupid.Fist,
I am confident I can identify value, not neccesasrily the winner, but value. I am pretty sure Chomba Womba will be backed at the early price and Crack Away Jack will drift. Therefore:
I bet you Chomba Womba’s SP will be shorter than the longest early price. And Crack Away Jack’s SP will be bigger than the longest early price.
MarkJust a bit more preaching Equi,
Crack Away Jack best early price 11/8, SP 2/1.
Chomba Womba best early price 100/30, SP 2/1Hate to tell you I told you so but……
Value Is Everything
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