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Ascot Champions Day

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  • #19898
    Anonymous
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    Before I head off to work tomorrow I’ve put some work into the Ascot card for some entertainment purposes. There is quite a big involvement regarding analysis of pedigrees to determine the speed and stamina of the horses running which eventual works out into quite an interesting elimination process using various fundamentals of how the race could well work out.

    The 150 Long Distance Cup (Group 3), I’ve ruled out Darley Sun, Motrice and Colour Vision to be wanting too much of a stamina test whilst Times Up, Pollys Mark, Eternal Heart and Chiberta King would be inclined to have too much speed.
    That leaves me with Fame and Glory, Opinion Poll and Neeham in a perfect position.

    Aiden O’Briens’ Fame And Glory has set out already and achieved his goals this year which is why it’s hard to keep picking up a horse and starting again so he could potentially find this hard to run at his peak performance. There is Opinion Poll who’s the model of consistency targeting the staying program this summer and autumn; he’s a fantastic prospect to win today. The outsider is Neeham who you could say may have been prepped for such a race although he’s built up his confidence and showed he’s a fit racehorse again to John Gosden which means he should have the resoluteness to run a hard race today.
    1st/ Neeham 2nd / Opinion Poll 3rd / Fame And Glory

    The 410 Champions Stakes (Group 1), I’ve ruled out Cirrus Des Aigles, Green Destiny, Nathanial, So You Think, Twice Over and Wigmore Hall. That leaves me with a 7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 33/1 and two 100/1 shots from the remaining 6 horses.

    I’m going to draw on some statistics – relevant ones in my eyes anyway;

    • 10 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race that season
    We can eliminate Sri Putra and Snow Fairy from this, I’m avoiding taking out Dubai Prince who falls under this category but he hasn’t been given the chance to run in a Class 1 yet.
    • 9 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F (exception yet to run over 1M 2F)

    We can eliminate Ransom Note from our list.
    That leaves me with Midday, Dubai Prince and Casamento.
    The Filly Midday would have to be a serious consideration for me given her ability although there is a question mark about fillies against top class males especially as this time of year as some are heading out of season (expect the Danedream/Zarkava remarks to follow).

    The Godolphin pair, I’ll start with Dubai Prince whose been touted as a Derby horse but had severe problems in his build up to the race and looks very much a Group 1 prospect it’s just a matter of time and you could question if this race has come too soon or it’s a well executed piece of training especially given the horse he beat last time out won next time by 9L.

    Casamento is interesting, very much like Poet’s Voice in the way they’ve found a new horse in getting him to settle and that was the key to him winning a big race not so long ago with this fella in the same boat, it will be interesting to see how he gets on!.

    1st / Midday 2nd / Dubai Prince 3rd / Casamento

    The 440 Future Stars Handicap (Class 2), I’ve started off by getting rid of Axiom, Crown Counsel, Directorship, Docofthebay, Edinburgh Knight, Golden Desert, Kalk Bay, Kiwi Bay, Nobel Citizen, Naabegha, Perfect Silence, Primeval, Rulesn’ Regulations, Thunderball, Valencha, White Frost.

    Phew!

    Right now into the speed and stamina demands, I’ve got the demands being very much speed orientated on both sides which rules out from the remaining list; Woodcote Place, Pearl Ice and Castles In The Air.

    I’m left with;
    Baby Strange, Dubai Dynamo, Duster, Imperial Guest, Lutine Bell, Mia’s Boy, Mr David, Pleasant Day, Striking Spirit, and The Confessor.

    I can’t find no statistics on this race to narrow the field a bit so what I’m going to do is use the Challenge Cup trends that should be valid for this race in truth but also so should the Victoria Cup although I’d rather trends in the same month and they are very similar races despite the contrast in quality;

    • 7 of the last 9 winners at Ascot were drawn in stalls 1 to 10.

    I think that’s a good statistic to keep to, the draw bias as the others can become very much irrelevant, this will rule out; Mr David, Duster, Lutine Bell, Imperial Guest, Striking Spirit, Mia’s Boy and The Confessor (Now I hope the stalls are positioned the same as Challenge Cup day!)

    I am left with Dubai Dynamo, Baby Strange and Pleasant Day.
    The Richard Fahey trained Pleasant Day actually won a good nursery here in 2009 run in similar vein to today’s race and has since made the journey from a mark of 82 > 104 whilst progressing from 7 > 10f in the process. He has been targeted at some big handicaps despite his form which probably shows a bit of blind faith by the trainer indicating on some decent level of ability but finds himself of his lowest mark for 2 years back at Ascot for the first time.

    Baby Strange is a weird one but a good run here for Derek Shaw would probably ease the winter campaign ahead for his stable which are hitting some sort of form but the horses ability to stay a true run 7F is my only question mark but then again this horse has a habit of finishing strongly over a true run sprint distances you just have to go back to the run behind Nobel Citizen and Hoof It, the cut in the ground will certainly help – in fact reading his profile I’m become more inclined to fancy his chances!

    Ruth Carr is bang out of form but Dubai Dynamo is the model of consistency, having started this year of 77 he’s now running off 92 yet manages to still be able to manoeuvre himself through the field with enough in his tank at the finish to give the impression maybe he can still perform of this mark or even bag a decent race.

    1st / Dubai Dynamo 2nd / Baby Strange 3rd / Pleasant Day

    A NORTHERN 1-2-3!

    I Will be playing some RFC/TC’s

    Good Luck!

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