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Somersby is becoming the lay of the festival at the ridiculous odds of 4/1. How beating Tchico Polos by 3 lenghts (needing the whip), equates to that price is beyond me.
The Irish form is streets ahead of the English form in this. Captain Cee Bee only has to stand up imo, with Sizing Europe there to pick up the pieces if he doesnt. Might try the forecast.
Somersby is fast becoming the worst priced horse at the festival. Has done absolutely bugger all compared to his main rivals.
Yep.
Didnt see that Big Bucks. All the better I suppose, strenght in number and all that!
lol was just saying I agree with you! And with the forecast bit too, either way round suits me
Somersby is a very good horse lads. He was going clear from Tchico Polos and Crack Away Jack at the finish and I would expect an improvement again. He’s Cee Bee’s only danger
[Somersby is a very good horse lads. He was going clear from Tchico Polos and Crack Away Jack at the finish and I would expect an improvement again. He’s Cee Bee’s only danger]
Can’t help but agree.
I too think it will be between Somersby and Captain Cee Bee, but JP’s horse will come out on top.
Think he will turn out to be a fantastic horse, the Captain.
Sizing Europe, Somersby and the Captain coming down the hill together, the going will get tough and SE will cry off, leaving the other 2 to battle it out.
Somersby is only a 6 year old, it’s not insurmountable that he still has a lot of improvement in him in order to win the Arkle. He jumps superbly, and has some key form at Cheltenham already. I think you need a relatively unexposed, young and improving type to win this race and he certainly fits the bill.
I was adamant that Calgary Bay was an Arkle contender last year. Whilst I was more than aware the horse could very well develop into a Gold Cup horse, I believed that a combination of his jumping, cruising speed and stamina would stand him in good stead in a tough race.
I was wrong. Speed is still the most potent weapon an Arkle contender must possess in order to win the race, coupled with reliable fencing.
Somersby, whilst possessing more natural speed than Calgary Bay, will be more suited to two miles-five, perhaps even three miles, given time. His fine effort in last years Supreme Novices’ behind Champion Hurdle contenders Go Native and Medermit (with the decent Copper Bleu in fourth) entitles him to be thereabouts, but he took awhile to reach top gear at Sandown on his last outing, stamping his authority on the race only when presented with the uphill finish. Crack Away Jack was arguably not at his best that day and Tchico Polos is not from the top drawer.
I think he has the ability to spoil the Irish party, but I’m still not convinced he has that potent turn of foot required to win the race.
I consider
Riverside Theatre
better value at double the odds. He has little to find with Somersby on their Aintree running last year and produced a fine effort just three weeks later at Punchestown behind the talented Hurricane Fly, with Go Native back in fourth.
He has looked a natural over the bigger obstacles, doing what was only necessary against admittedly inferior opposition. He will need to step up on what he has done thus far to win, but he did just that in his final two outings last term over hurdles. He hasn’t endured a hard campaign and goes to Cheltenham a very fresh, confident horse.
I’m still a huge fan of
Sizing Europe
and, in my opinion, he is the most talented performer in the race. Unbeaten over the bigger obstacles in four starts, he has proven himself to be a sound jumper who travels well and quickens. The forecast conditions will suit and he will be ideally suited by the expected strong pace. I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet – this race will do just that.
I can’t help but notice that Osana has come in for some strong support since his latest defeat (I think he touched 33/1). Seemingly exposed over the bigger obstacles, but he has proven form around Prestbury Park and is another to consider as an each-way alternative at a best-priced 16/1.
I was adamant that Calgary Bay was an Arkle contender last year. Whilst I was more than aware the horse could very well develop into a Gold Cup horse, I believed that a combination of his jumping, cruising speed and stamina would stand him in good stead in a tough race.
I am a massive fan of the big horse.
Would love it if he could win a G1 one day.
I was adamant that Calgary Bay was an Arkle contender last year. Whilst I was more than aware the horse could very well develop into a Gold Cup horse, I believed that a combination of his jumping, cruising speed and stamina would stand him in good stead in a tough race.
I am a massive fan of the big horse.
Would love it if he could win a G1 one day.
I’ve backed him each-way w/o Kauto Star and Denman at 33/1 for the Gold Cup. After his intended run at Doncaster, Henrietta Kinight said
"I know the Gold Cup is dominated by the big two, but there may not be many runners and he’s very likely to run.
"The opportunities before that are very small as he will not race properly right-handed, so that is a waste of time."
I think Hen has called it pretty well. He’ll be well looked after at Cheltenham and ridden to beat tired horses, in my opinion.
His main target next season is the Grand National. Can’t wait to see him tackle those big fences.
With regards to jumping it’s funny how different people see different things. Personally I think the top three are pretty much a muchness jumping wise and on the evidence seen I couldn’t say with any positivity that any ones jumps better than the others.
Somersby put in a very good round at Kempton but was rather novicey and far from efficient first time out.
In all but his last run Sizing Europe has been virtually foot perfect, the odd error he has made he’s looked very athletic in the way he’s fiddled over them.
I like the way Captain Cee Bee jumps, it’s very efficient, he spends very little time in the air. The final fence mistakes were only very minor errors in judgement and whilst that’s always an outside danger with horses that jump like him it wouldn’t worry me any more than it does with any of the others.
Calgary Bay for next year’s National? Surely a bit too young and inexperienced still for that marathon slog? Personally I’d keep him to the GC route as he is perfectly poised to take the crown from KS once he retires.
The Arkle is still a bit of a puzzle to me and not one of the races where I will have a meaningful bet in, Riverside Theatre is an interesting type for sure, as is Woolcombe Folly and maybe Osana. May just watch with intrigue instead, definitely think Somersby is one for next year or maybe the year after, Knight’s horses never really blossom until they’re around 8 or 9.
Last year, Somersby took the scenic route the whole way round, so it was quite a perfomance.
Somersby I fear is a Racing Demon clone. All Hen’s other Arkle ‘good things’ ended up being 3-milers and with the exception of Best Mate who obviously never ran due to Foot and Mouth, were basically tailed off. Somersby will finish closer to last than first if you ask me.
"Somersby put in a very good round at Kempton but was rather novicey and far from efficient first time out."
Which is why he ran in the Grade 2. I think he’ll have improved plenty from that run.
"Somersby is fast becoming the worst priced horse at the festival. Has done absolutely bugger all compared to his main rivals."
I think it’s the scope for improvement that he has and also the fact that he has’nt doen anything wrong.
I’m still a Sizing Europe man, it’s not a certainty that CCB would have beaten him at Xmas to be perfectly honest with you.
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